House of Commons
Monday 7 December 2020
The House met at half-past Two o’clock
[Mr Speaker in the Chair]
Virtual participation in proceedings commenced (Order, 4 June).
[NB: [V] denotes a Member participating virtually.]
Oral Answers to Questions
The Secretary of State was asked—
Military and Security Co-operation: European Union
Although we are leaving the EU defence structures, we remain committed to the security of Europe and will continue to co-operate with the EU and European nations on a bilateral or multinational basis on shared threats and challenges. We do not need an institutionalised relation with the EU to do so. The defence settlement reaffirms our position as Europe’s leading power, with the second highest defence budget in NATO, providing leadership and the ability for investment to help to drive forward NATO’s adaptation.
Any major conflict will require UK forces to be able to work collaboratively and fully with EU forces in the future. What steps has the Secretary of State taken to ensure that that is possible through access to the European Defence Standardisation Committee, which replaces the former Materiel Standardisation Group?
The leader in the field of standardisation has always been NATO, with the setting of NATO standards, which have let us interoperate with our allies the United States and all the other nations of Europe. It would be wrong to abandon that to adopt another approach. We all know in Europe, whatever part of the EU debate one is in, that the United States is the cornerstone of European security, and that is why NATO is so important.
My right hon. Friend knows, however, that NATO and Europe are not quite the same. As Brexit talks reach their conclusion, does he agree that to depart without a trade deal would be less than helpful in re-establishing western resolve to take on the growing, complex threats that we face? The Government’s integrated review emphasises a commitment to reinvigorating a proactive role for the United Kingdom on the international stage, giving real purpose to global Britain. Would it not be an abject failure of statecraft, and diminish our collective security co-operation, to leave the EU without a deal?
My right hon. Friend obviously urges us to make a deal. I think that right now, as we speak, members of the Government are trying to make a deal with the European Union to enforce the decision by the British people to leave the European Union. What would be a mistake is if both sides forgot that security is not a competition—it is a partnership. That is what I always said as Security Minister, and as Defence Secretary I mean it now. There has been no sign among many of our European allies that that situation has changed. We are still partners in going after whatever threatens all of us, our way of life and our values.
I am encouraged by the Secretary of State’s replies so far. Given that there is no security for Europe without the United States, what specific reassurance can he give that we shall not be sucked, via Permanent Structured Cooperation, into the European Union’s persistent attempts to create an alternative NATO without the United States, which would be a particularly dangerous military version of Hamlet without the Prince?
My right hon. Friend raises a worrying spectre. First, we are very grateful to the Germans, who have tried very hard to get a proper third-party agreement with PESCO, although we have no plans to participate in it because we have serious concerns about the intellectual property rights and export controls that it would seek to impose. However, we will always be open to working with European industries—on the future combat air system, for example. We have engaged with the Swedish and the Italians, for instance, because the collective security of Europe is often based on a good sovereign capability in our industrial base. We will continue to do that on a case-by-case basis, and to do that with our other allies such as the United States. Britain is also the keystone of European security.
UK-produced Steel Procurement
The Government publish their future pipeline for steel requirements, together with information on compliance, with steel procurement guidelines. These measures enable UK steel manufacturers to plan better and bid for Government contracts.
Last month, UK Steel criticised the opaque procurement processes involved in the defence sector. I know the Government will agree that UK steel is vital to our national interests. Will Ministers therefore set clear and transparent objectives regarding UK steel in defence projects and commit to engaging with the industry early, meaningfully and often in the procurement process?
I am sorry to hear that. We are very keen to engage fully with the steel industry; it is important that we do so. We need transparency, and that is absolutely a goal, as is reinforced by the Cabinet Office guidelines. Looking at the macro picture, however, I am sure that the hon. Lady would agree that the plans we put in place for the biggest single boost to defence expenditure in 30 years, with the commitments to Type 26, Type 31 and the fleet solid support programme, all suggest that there are going to be good opportunities for steel manufacturers in the future.
Departmental Spending: High-skilled Jobs and UK Economy
The Ministry of Defence is one of the largest providers of apprenticeships in the United Kingdom, with around 20,000 on a programme at any one time. We are investing in cutting-edge capabilities and research and development with the future combat air system technology initiative, resulting in more than 1,800 highly skilled engineers in 300 companies throughout the UK. The MOD spent £19.2 billion with UK industry and commerce in 2018-19, safeguarding and supporting thousands of jobs throughout the UK.
The Government are using the opportunity offered by leaving the EU to develop defence and security procurement regulations tailored to better meet the UK’s needs. We have embarked on a comprehensive review of the Defence and Security Public Contracts Regulations 2011 with a view to improving the pace and agility of acquisition.
Two years ago, MBDA’s high-tech manufacturing facility was officially launched in Bolton. As the Secretary of State for Defence said at the time, we cannot have prosperity without security. What good news can my right hon. Friend share with Boltonians in the run-up to Christmas and beyond?
I think the best news for Boltonians and fellow Lancashire constituents such as mine is that the Government’s record defence spending commitments for the integrated review mean that there will be money for the future combat air system, one of the mainstays of north-west aerospace. That is good news for MBDA in Bolton, good news for BAE, good news for the supply chain and good news for the thousands of people in the north-west who work in aerospace, and that is because the Government have invested in the future capabilities of sovereign aerospace.
Veterans: Covid-19 Support
The full range of veterans’ support services, including the Veterans UK helpline and the welfare service, have continued to be provided throughout the covid-19 pandemic, with appropriate adjustments to keep people safe. This Government have sponsored a study into the specific effect of covid on the veteran community, and we will report on that in the next few months.
I welcome the study. This year has been very challenging for older veterans, who are more at risk of isolation because of the covid-19 lockdowns and restrictions and the tightening of funding for military charities. What work is the Minister undertaking to ensure that no veteran in Putney and across the country is going lonely this Christmas?
Over the course of the past 15 months, the UK’s first Office for Veterans’ Affairs has spent every day trying to design a system to stop veterans who leave the military from falling through the panoply of services that are there. That includes working with the third sector, which has an enormously important role, and also with statutory provision, because we understand that, ultimately, this nation’s duties to its veterans should be ensured—not delivered—by the state. I am determined we will reach the goal that this will be the best country in the world to be an armed forces veteran.
I thank the Minister for his remarks. As he knows, many of our veterans up and down the country have faced loneliness and isolation as they shield during the pandemic, and that feeling will only get worse as we approach Christmas, with the reality of not being able to see family as usual. Will the Minister support and promote the Jo Cox Foundation’s “Great Winter Get Together” to help our veterans who may be experiencing loneliness this winter?
I would be delighted to support the initiative in the name of my friend, Jo, who was in the same parliamentary intake as me. Loneliness is an acute problem, particularly at this time of year, and I am especially aware that our veterans, who often depend on the sort of face-to-face contact of such things as cognitive behavioural therapy, will have been challenged by the specific circumstances we find ourselves in. I would be delighted to support that effort.
NHS and Public Bodies: Covid-19 Support
As part of the national covid-19 response, Defence has supported NHS trusts in a variety of ways, including the distribution of personal protective equipment and diagnostic equipment; the planning, construction and staffing of Nightingale hospitals; conducting testing; and supporting the vaccine taskforce. We have established a winter support package of 13,500 personnel with specialist capabilities to ensure our continued support to the NHS and other civil authorities throughout the winter period.
I would be delighted to. There are currently 2,600 personnel committed to covid-19 tasks. The number of tasks is too numerous to list in full in the Chamber, but personnel are deployed on everything from mass testing to the deployment of vaccines and just about everything else besides. The body of the deployment at the moment is in planning, logistics, support to local authorities and ensuring that Defence’s planning and delivery expertise is shared as widely as possible around Government, so that we can ensure that we are poised to respond to whatever else comes during the winter.
I commend the armed forces for the amazing work they have done in supporting the civil authorities. Will my hon. Friend provide an update on any discussions he has had with the Department of Health and Social Care and the NHS about how the armed forces will support the roll-out of mass vaccination?
Defence is working closely with other Departments, particularly the DHSC and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, to assist on vaccine roll-out plans. Some 60 military planners are integrated within the vaccine taskforce, and Defence has deployed 56 personnel to assist in constructing vaccination centres. Defence stands ready to provide further support to the NHS in meeting the challenge of vaccinating the UK against covid-19.
The professionalism and logistical support of the Army have already proved vital in our country’s ability to respond to this pandemic. That was seen most recently in Eastbourne’s mobile testing unit, which allowed key workers to return to work. I was most interested in my hon. Friend’s remarks about how the Army might help to roll out the vaccine, having performed various other important tasks. Could he tell the House how many military liaison officers have been deployed to date to help with these very localised planned operations?
My hon. Friend is right to single out the military liaison officers who have been working alongside local authorities across the country throughout the year. There are 350 of them currently deployed. I know from speaking to my own council chief executive in Somerset, and I have heard from colleagues around the country, just how much their expertise has been valued by local authorities, assisting them with their preparations initially for the distribution of PPE, then for testing and now for vaccines.
There are welcome reports that our armed forces are to support the NHS with the roll-out of the coronavirus vaccine, performing vital work to transform sites across the country into distribution hubs. However, personnel are already stretched, and resourcing is a key concern after a decade of defence decline. Will the Minister update the House with real detail on the steps he is taking to ensure that they have the resources needed to perform their vital work safely?
There are 2,600 service personnel deployed right now. The winter preparedness package is 13,500 people at readiness. We are confident that in generating that package, we have not in any way damaged Defence’s ability to prepare for operations that are required currently or in the next six months. We are very proud of the 13,500 that we have been able to generate. Everything that Defence is doing, we are able to do without threatening defence outputs, and we are delighted to be playing the part that we are in supporting the country at this important time.
Official Development Assistance
Defence engagement programmes, including those that count as official development assistance, help create the conditions for sustained economic development for recipient nations by increasing the effectiveness and integrity of their defence institutions. We assess the impact of our programmes continuously and subject them to formal evaluation annually.
As the Minister knows, it is the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee, or DAC, that sets out the guidelines for development spending, and it states that spending
“promotes and specifically targets the economic development and welfare of developing countries.”
As the MOD explores new areas, such as cyber-technologies and space-based assets, will the Minister ensure that any development spending by his Department is DAC-compliant and continues to focus on helping the world’s poorest?
I think that the answer to the hon. Lady’s question is that we will do our best, but of course what matters is that we are doing the right military things in order to create the right situations for prosperity and security wherever we are serving around the world. If the activity is not directly compliant, I am not sure that should stop us doing it. The reality is that there are many things that Defence does, not least the forthcoming deployment to Mali, where we will set the conditions for security in a very troubled country, which does not meet the definition, but is a very worthwhile thing to do and has real positive humanitarian effects.
Armed Forces Veterans: Covid-19 Response
Responding to the covid-19 pandemic has been Defence’s highest strategic priority, and as part of the national response thousands of service personnel and veterans have been active in every region of the United Kingdom and devolved Administrations.
I thank my hon. Friend for that answer. I think the nation has been inspired by the actions of one veteran during this pandemic, and that, of course, is Captain Sir Tom Moore, but veterans from all of our services have got so much to offer—skills in a wide variety of areas, involvement in many community groups and an approach to getting things done—so how is my hon. Friend ensuring that veterans are kept safe while they provide their invaluable support?
As I mentioned earlier, during this period I have been acutely aware of how our needs for our veterans have changed or moved along during the pandemic. We have rolled out a series of services—the veterans trauma network; the transition, intervention and liaison service; and the complex treatment service. We are working towards that place where we can build a panoply of services so that all of our veterans are looked after in this country, in line with the Prime Minister’s intent.
Veterans across my constituency have been supporting one another, whether by calling in on those they have mental health concerns about or raising money, as the Wantage branch of the RAF Association did in raising £6,000 for Operation Connect. Will my hon. Friend join me in thanking them, and does he agree with me that this shows that, even when our service personnel stop their active service, they continue to serve us in our local communities?
I of course pay tribute to the RAF Association in my hon. Friend’s constituency for raising £6,000. Veterans, like many community and voluntary groups across the country, have really stepped up during this time to deliver services, deliver medicines and help vulnerable people. It is something that I certainly have been enormously proud of, and it reflects the true values and ethos of our veterans community in this country.
Fleet Solid Support Ships: Invitation to Tender
It is a pleasure to hear from the right hon. Gentleman. No one could ever accuse him of being inconsistent on this subject. I am pleased to assure him, as I have previously, that we will be commencing the competition in the spring.
The Confederation of Shipbuilding and Engineering Unions has argued forcefully for defence orders to be brought forward to help our industry through the economic crisis, especially in our regions and nations. The Navy carrier group needs the fleet solid support ships, and the Department has the specifications from the previous bidding round. It is a project that is really shovel or welding-ready, so when is the Secretary of State going to get off his backside and start ordering these ships? [Interruption.] He may even want to intervene and answer himself.
I am most grateful, Mr Speaker, though the Secretary of State is raring to go.
Just to reassure the right hon. Gentleman, the specification has changed. It has changed because we now understand more about the carrier strike group and how we will deploy these important assets. It is on track, and we will get there. We have had two rounds of market engagement, and we may wish to do more market engagement. We have got a busy shipbuilding supply chain; there are a lot of orders going through. It is important that this is well based and well founded, and I want to make certain that we launch this competition successfully and, indeed, that it is concluded successfully.
The country has a vaccine for covid-19, and it will be rolled out as a matter of urgency to save lives. The Ministry of Defence has had approval for funding the defence industry. Will the Minister, as a matter of urgency, roll out the FSS and other shovel-ready defence projects now, not wait until to the summer, to give a real shot in the arm to the defence industry, and to retain thousands of jobs and create thousands of new jobs and apprenticeships for new technology graduates, as well as to support British workers and use the springboard of the British defence industry to lead the country out of this covid recession?
I suspect that the hon. Gentleman is referring to the CSEU report on shovel-ready projects, which I commend. It is always good to have advice from those quarters, and indeed, many of them are already ongoing. I gently remind him, however, that the report praised the German Government for increasing spending by €10 billion to €12 billion over the next few years. It also praised the French—I think the French Minister has been asked to go before the Assemblée Nationale with an extra €1.5 billion, or around that number. That does not bear any comparison with our £24 billion investment in defence over the next few years. That is the biggest single boost to defence over the past 30 years, and it will mean a lot of orders coming through, to the benefit of British defence, the British armed forces, and British firms across the Union.
Integrated Review: Treasury Discussions
I have regular discussions with the Chancellor of the Exchequer about the integrated review, and will continue to do so on wider issues concerning defence.
The spending review made recent welcome changes to defence spending, particularly with cyber and other areas of resilience. It seemed strange, however, that those spending increases were announced before the integrated review. Are the new funds in the spending review part of the Government’s response to the integrated review, and is that a case of the cart coming before the horse? Or, is it a case of, “That’s it”, meaning that the review will not make any new announcements backed up by spending commitments?
The hon. Gentleman asks a valid question about the timing of the integrated review, and there will be an integrated review at the beginning of next year. The defence announcement was a building block as part of that review, and it will obviously work towards the overall posture of global Britain when it is announced in the new year.
The extra funding was a welcome promise to upgrade Britain’s defences after nearly a decade of decline, so it is long overdue. The capital announcement is one thing, but what is the real-terms revenue funding for defence over the next four years?
I asked the Secretary of State about resource funding, and he has to face that question. The answer is on page 67 of the Chancellor’s spending review report, which shows a 2.3% real cut in resource funding through to 2024-25. That means less money for forces’ recruitment, training, pay, pensions and family support, at a time when our armed forces are already 12,000 below strength after the last review. That could mean new ships, but no sailors. Will the Secretary of State recognise that hi-tech weapons systems are essential for the future, but highly trained service personnel are indispensable? May I urge him not to repeat the mistakes of past Conservative reviews, and instead to put forces personnel at the heart of the current integrated review?
I know the right hon. Gentleman was a Minister in Mr Brown’s Government, who did not have the greatest reputation for financial accuracy. Although we can agree on the spending profile, his interpretation of the rates of inflation and alleged real-term cuts is not something that we recognise. On the “decade of decline”, as he calls it, I thought that before coming to the House I would read the National Audit Office “Major Projects Report 2010”, into the Government in which he was Minister of State, and the spending on defence. That report highlights that in one year up to 2009, the Government overspent by £3 billion. That is where the black hole that amounts to £38 billion came from, so before he throws stones in glass houses about managing defence budgets, he should be very careful.
Perhaps I could be very clear about how we went about getting to this settlement. We started, as I have said repeatedly in the House, with the threat and what we need to meet the threat and to fight tomorrow’s battles, not the last. We then took that request to the Chancellor and the Prime Minister, had a discussion, and it resulted in the record settlement that Members see before the House today.
Surely the review is meant to tell us what the threat is and then the Government respond with the spending, rather than the spending coming before the review is published. All that being said, I suppose we are where we are. I am grateful for one thing that the Secretary of State has done: he has finally listened to our policy of a multi-year defence agreement. May I ask him to go one step further? In other countries where those are used, they involve all political parties. Will he pledge to do so?
What would be good is a welcome from the Scottish National party that £1.76 billion will be spent with Scottish business, at least, year on year. That is something that the Union manages to deliver for Scotland through the United Kingdom armed forces. This record spending unlocks funding for Type 26, Type 31, Type 32, research vessels and the fleet solid support ships. Where they are to be built is obviously still a matter for decision in some cases, but I can guarantee that, right now, many ships of Type 26 and Type 31 are being built in Scotland. A welcome for that from the SNP would be great, but of course we know we will never hear it.
Someone’s put 50p in them today, Mr Speaker, haven’t they just? Let me ask the Secretary of State this. I have asked him time and again, and he usually just shouts back to me whatever is in his folder; let’s try answering the question. Of the spending announced for Scotland, at what point—he has only a few days of the year left—will the Government finally meet the promise they made six years ago of 12,500 personnel stationed permanently in Scotland? It is currently below 10,000. In all the projects he listed, he did not mention the promise of the frigate factory. [Interruption.] He laughs because he knows it is a promise that is not going to be met between now and 31 December, is it?
I laughed because, having examined the proposals, the frigate factory would have included the closing of Govan and the investment in Scotstoun. I am not sure, but I remember distinctly that Govan was originally a very proud Labour seat, obviously then represented by the First Minister of Scotland. Having done the review, BAE and, indeed, the MOD and others recognised that the best value for money was to invest in both Govan and Scotstoun, to make sure that we make the frigates and destroyers that the hon. Gentleman wants so much but does not want to use, and to sail them up to Scotstoun to be integrated. That is why we support over 10,000 jobs in Scotland, and we will continue to do so. Where the future basing of our armed forces goes is for the integrated review. All will be revealed to the hon. Gentleman.
Integrated Review: Publication
My right hon. Friend the Prime Minister has announced the first outcome of the integrated review of security, defence, development and foreign policy, with the significant increase for defence funding of more than £24 billion over four years to enable modernisation of the armed forces. The full conclusion of the integrated review will be published, as I have said, early next year.
I thank the Secretary of State for that response. An unaffordable and delayed equipment programme; a shortfall in personnel targets; plans to invest in space and cyber, and integration across all five operational domains, as well as a fall in defence spending since 2010 of more than £8 billion in real terms—the Government’s poor handling of our nation’s defence means that the review’s ambitions will not match the Secretary of State’s rhetoric, so when is he going to share with us what areas of defence will be scaled back or sacrificed in the review?
I am sorry; I thought the hon. Lady was referring to the 2010 National Audit Office report on the Labour Government. It is a very good read; all those comments are in there, and it is remarkable that Labour has not learned the lessons. We have learned the lessons. We have looked at what we need to do, we have started with the threat, we are tailoring our response to our ambition, and, as a result, it is my intention that we will make the tough decisions to disinvest in equipment that was fit for previous encounters with adversaries and to invest in future equipment. But at the heart of it, as I have said from the beginning, the most important equipment of our armed forces is the men and women of them. That is why included in that is wraparound childcare, for example, to reflect the modern armed forces.
In the Defence Committee, we have been able to look at the evolution of warfare and what that might mean for this country. Will the Secretary of State confirm that the integrated review will clearly lay out Britain’s position in the changing battle space?
Yes. My hon. Friend is quite right to highlight the profound changes we are already seeing at home and abroad, and I thank the Committee for the work it has been doing on that issue. The integrated review will set out the UK’s global leadership, commitment to collective security and burden sharing, alongside defence’s historic settlement. It will enable us to prepare for this new and complex reality, including investing billions in combat air, shipbuilding, space, cyber and world-leading research.
The four years capital programme is welcome, even if it conceals a real-terms cut in revenue spending. Right now, we have funding without a strategy, which is why it is essential that the integrated review be published as quickly as possible. Will the Secretary of State undertake that the capital spend will be spent on British industry to equip the British armed forces, creating tens of thousands of jobs in our defence, aerospace and maritime industries?
Can I be absolutely clear? While we recognise the figures of RDEL, or resource departmental expenditure limits, and CDEL, or capital departmental expenditure limits, over the four years, we absolutely do not recognise the interpretation by the Labour Front Bench of a real-terms cut in RDEL using the inflationary figures and depressors that they have already jumbled up. The simple fact is that this Government have made a record defence spending commitment and we will be investing it in people, their capabilities and their equipment. When it comes to equipment, the first thing is to ensure that we give our men and women the best to keep them alive and safe on a battlefield. I am confident, because Britain makes most of the best equipment in the world, that a large proportion of that will be British made and British secured.
Armed Forces: Covid-19 Response
As part of the national covid-19 response, the Ministry of Defence has, as we discussed earlier, 13,500 personnel to assist in winter resilience operations, including the response to the current pandemic crisis. The force capabilities include liaising and planning, logistical support, engineering and other specialist capabilities.
People in Chesterfield have had cause to be grateful to members of our armed forces, who helped to erect the coronavirus testing station at the Technique Stadium in Chesterfield. Of course, the armed forces would have been better placed to support the effort if we had not seen service numbers cut by 46,000 under this Government over the past 10 years, but can the Minister tell us whether the armed forces stand ready to offer mass testing in all tier 3 areas should the Health Secretary request that they do so?
First of all, I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for his kind words about the service personnel who have been at work in his constituency. Defence will generate as much as we can possibly generate to meet the needs of the Government. At the moment, 13,500 personnel are in readiness. We are looking at how we might generate more if required. No such demand signal has yet come from the Health Secretary, but if it did we would see what we could do. Of course, we have the opportunity, given that we have placed the mobilisation orders in the House, to look at how we might generate our reserves to participate in the response as well.
Our armed forces have helped to deliver successful whole-town testing in Liverpool, and we have heard today that the Ministry of Defence plans to use MACA—military aid to the civil authorities—support for more testing and preparations to roll out covid vaccines. Can the Minister indicate whether good quality local accommodation, together with extra funds, will be provided to the armed forces to help them with this vital work?
I commend our world-renowned armed forces on their much valued efforts in the fight against the pandemic, especially when they recently helped to deliver successful whole-area testing. Will the Minister explain exactly how the Government plan to use MACA support for other areas in tier 3, such as my Slough constituency?
The hon. Gentleman tempts me to give him a lecture on the intricacies of the MACA process, which I have come to love over the last nine months. The reality is that if he feels that his local authorities would benefit from military support, he should ask them to put in a MACA request, and the MOD would look to resource that, as we have done on hundreds of others over the course of the year thus far. If he feels that the chief executive of his local authority would benefit from assistance in generating that MACA request, he can write to me and I will be delighted to help.
Challenger 2 Life Extension Programme
The assessment phase of the Challenger 2 life extension programme has concluded. The proposition is now being worked up prior to a decision being taken on the investment case.
The Minister will be aware of the excellent Shropshire defence engineers who have recently been awarded an £860 million project for the Boxer vehicle delivered through RBSL—Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land. Would he like to put on record his thanks to all those in defence engineering in Shropshire and perhaps allude to the fact that, should the contract be awarded in the west midlands, it might be going to Shropshire?
I would not comment on any particular forthcoming potential procurement, but I have visited Telford to see RBSL and I can absolutely endorse my hon. Friend’s remarks about the brilliant engineers and apprentices I have met there. He is rightly proud of the capabilities in defence throughout Shropshire, and I was delighted with the £860 million contract to support Boxer. It is a brilliant supply chain in Shropshire and throughout the UK.
Departmental Overseas Aid Activity
Given that military aid is not eligible for the OECD’s goal of ODA, although a stable and peaceful Government is surely helpful for the economic development and welfare of developing nations, is it time for our military aid to be included in the many exceptions list, or is it time for a review of the OECD definition so that the good work of our armed forces can be recognised and accounted for as part of the Government’s aid commitments?
My hon. Friend is right to acknowledge the important contribution that defence activities make in helping to create the secure conditions essential for sustained economic development. As he may have heard me say to the hon. Member for Oxford West and Abingdon (Layla Moran), to be constrained by the definition would do a disservice to our freedom of manoeuvre as the Ministry of Defence, but we very much hope that ODA rules could be changed to reflect the very wide range of activities that defence is involved in but that currently are not accounted for as part of our ODA spend.
Procurement Policies: Green Book Changes
The MOD makes procurement decisions based on security, capability requirement, cost, supply chain and other social value considerations and will continue to do so. The November 2020 changes to the Green Book will ensure that there is an increased focus on setting clear objectives and consideration of location-based impacts. MOD footprint and spend is widely distributed across the UK and future procurement will continue to reflect this.
The potential pragmatism of the Treasury towards its Green Book rules on public procurement is welcome, as it was heralded as one of my recommendations in my report on prosperity two and a half years ago. Does my right hon. Friend believe that this will make clear the prosperity metrics, which the Treasury will recognise when it comes to defence procurement, and will the Treasury accept that a pound spent on defence in the UK is worth more than a multiplier of 1 in the levelling-up impact on the UK economy?
My right hon. Friend is absolutely right, especially in that last observation, and I congratulate him on his prosperity report. He was clearly thinking ahead of the Treasury at the time, and I am delighted that it has recognised the importance and contribution that those changes will make to levelling up and closing the north-south divide. While the end-of-year rules were not changed, the recent £24.1 billion multi-year settlement with the Treasury will now allow the MOD to invest in next generation military capability across the whole United Kingdom.
Overseas Veterans: State Pensions
The Government have no plans to change their policy on overseas pensions uprating. It is long-standing Government policy that the state pension is not uprated annually for those not resident in the United Kingdom unless the pensioner resides in a country with which there is a reciprocal social security agreement requiring that uprating.
The Minister prides himself on standing up for veterans, so it is surprising to hear him say, as he just has, that he is not going to do anything for the estimated 60,000 veterans who have their pensions frozen, many of whom are living in poverty and relying on family handouts. These are pensioners such as world war two veteran Anne Puckridge, who, instead of receiving £134 a week, receives a mere £72 a week. When is the Minister going to stand up for veterans, as he should be doing as the Minister for veterans?
I will not take any lessons from the hon. Lady on standing up for veterans. State pensions are the responsibility of the Department for Work and Pensions, and she is well aware of that fact. This arrangement has been conducted by successive Governments for over 70 years, and questions about the policy should be directed to the Department for Work and Pensions.
On 21 September, I made a statement to the House on allegations that the Ministry of Defence had blacklisted the media outlet Declassified UK. An independent review that I ordered into those allegations has now concluded and I have placed a copy in the Library today. The review concludes that the Ministry of Defence does not operate any policy of blacklisting and has no direct political bias. However, on this one occasion, individuals acted as if there was such a policy. That was wrong and, on behalf of the Department, I apologise. As long as I am Secretary of State for this Department, we will not tolerate any form of bias within the communications directorate, and I fully accept the findings of the report and will be taking forward its recommendations.
I thank my right hon. Friend for his statement. May I ask him about the recent funding announcement for his Department and what that means for the Army Foundation College and the junior soldiers who attend it? The college is, of course, located in Harrogate and has Captain Sir Tom Moore as its honorary colonel.
I had better not cross that, then. My hon. Friend has rightly championed the Army Foundation College, which was assessed as outstanding during its most recent Ofsted inspection. The college is just one part of the training and education that make our armed forces admired across the world. We expect it to continue to play that role as we modernise the armed forces and train the skilled persons we need to meet future threats.
As we approach and prepare for Christmas, I would like to place on record that not only the young men and women training in the Army Foundation College and the other depots across the United Kingdom, but the men and women operating above the sea, below the sea, in Iraq, Afghanistan and right across the world will be standing guard and looking after our values and interests and allies while many of us are getting time off at home. I think this is the last Defence questions before our Christmas session, and, on behalf of my Department and my Ministers, I would like to pay tribute to them.
I reinforce that tribute to our armed forces, who will be serving throughout the Christmas and new year period. I welcome the report that the Secretary of State says he has had placed in the Library this afternoon, and his apology. I also welcomed his written statement last week after troops had begun to arrive in Mali, because on the Opposition side we strongly support the deployment of our forces to support the United Nations mission in Mali; I simply believe that any Secretary of State should report directly to, and answer questions in, this House before committing British forces to conflict zones.
I ask the Secretary of State now, if I may, to report to the House on another matter that for many is at the heart of forces life and aspirations: why is the forces Help to Buy scheme now helping fewer forces families than when it was launched six years ago? What action is he taking to fix the failings of this scheme, so that those who serve are not denied the same dream of home ownership as everyone else?
I would be troubled if fewer were being helped by it. That is not our intention and, indeed, one of the early things I did when I took this office was to extend the Help to Buy scheme, because it is a thoroughly worthwhile scheme. I will be delighted to look into the matter and present to the right hon. Gentleman why the numbers have dropped and what we can do to increase them.
If the hon. Member has been an avid attender of Defence questions, she will have heard me say on a number of occasions that the lessons of the past for both Governments—including Labour Governments; I refer her to the National Audit Office report of 2010—are that we should not over-promise, be over-ambitious or underfund, and that we should cut our cloth accordingly. I have read not only the 2010 report but all the successive NAO reports and SDSRs going back to 1998, to learn what mistakes should and could have been avoided. That is why we have had this review and this record funding, and it is why the Prime Minister made the exception for a multi-year spending decision not only in CDEL but in REDL. This gives us the space to put things right that have been wrong and to ensure that we make long-term investments that match our ambition. I am sure the whole House agrees with that. I am always happy to take suggestions from hon. Members from all around the House about what we could do even better.
I will write to my hon. Friend. Obviously, defence co-operation with a range of countries benefits our mutual interests. For example, we often, even unofficially, in that we do not have a formal agreement, work with countries where a threat presents itself that poses a threat to our citizens and our interests. I will write to him about the specific details of the country he mentioned.
As the hon. Lady says, the MACA request for Hull was approved on 1 December, and four military planners have been provided to support the Humber local resilience forum until the end of January with specific areas of covid-related planning. If that planning reveals a demand for further military resource, I am sure that a further MACA request will be forthcoming, and we will consider it on its merits.
I know that the Minister for Defence Procurement, my hon. Friend the Member for Horsham (Jeremy Quin), is itching to visit the company in my hon. Friend’s constituency. As for attendance at pass-out parades, I know how much my own family enjoyed my pass-out parade at Sandhurst. These are big, big moments in the lives of soldiers and the families who support them. We have to work within the Government’s guidelines, but as soon as we can get parades open to family and friends again, we will do so.
The decision to grant a public inquiry in the case of Pat Finucane is a decision for the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland; as Secretary of State for Defence, I have no role in it. However, I am a former Northern Ireland Minister and a former member of the armed forces who served there. The hon. Lady will know that there have been numerous inquiries and inquests into a range of killings by both the state and terrorists. We take every case very seriously and examine the evidence before us, but we are also keen to make sure that we uphold the spirit of the Good Friday agreement, which is to help to draw a line under the troubles to allow the men and women of Northern Ireland move forward in peace. That does mean dealing with the legacy, but it also means making sure that when things have been examined we can all move forward together.
The men and women of the Defence Medical Services have been real heroes throughout the pandemic, working in hospitals throughout the country. Many of them already have jobs in the NHS, which means they are not ours to flex in response to MACA requests. However, other military medics have been used in response to MACA requests from health trusts, and I am sure that if such a request was to come from my hon. Friend’s local authority, we would be happy to look at it.
It means an end to an era in which successive Governments, both Labour and Conservative, over-promised and underfunded. What is absolutely key is that the Prime Minister determines that this Government and this defence policy meet the threat and do not fund into everything else. [Interruption.] The hon. Gentleman makes a scissors gesture; I distinctly remember serving in the armed forces under a Labour Government and that is pretty much what most of the Labour Government did. If the hon. Gentleman turned his hand upright, that was the attitude to our armed forces of the Labour Front Bench under Jeremy Corbyn.
Defence personnel have assisted across Wales during the pandemic, including in Wrexham and Clwyd South, by supporting the Welsh ambulance service, the planning and staffing of Nightingale hospitals and mobile testing. Currently, defence is supporting whole-town testing a little further south in Merthyr Tydfil. I am sure that the whole House will join me in commending the contribution of our armed forces, who have worked tirelessly to tackle covid-19 in Wales and across the United Kingdom.
When we look at retention in the armed forces we are never complacent. We take continuous attitude survey responses very seriously indeed. Clearly, there are things we can do to improve the life of our service personnel, but the hon. Gentleman is wrong to suggest that retention is a problem; in fact, retention is improving quickly.
In line with the national cyber strategy, the Ministry of Defence works closely with the National Cyber Security Centre in support of national objectives to protect and defend critical infrastructure. The MOD has funded programmes to mitigate cyber-risks against our platforms, weapons systems and core digital infrastructure, and we are developing a cyber-aware workforce to embed cyber-security into our business and operations.
Over the past two years, we have made a real effort to completely redesign the mental health care provision for our armed forces personnel, both during their time in service and when they leave. I am delighted to confirm for the first time that this country’s armed forces will receive mandatory mental health training every year from 1 April next year. I pay tribute to the service chiefs who have led the way on this significant policy change.
Ukraine is incredibly important to the United Kingdom, not only as an ally, but hopefully as a future member of NATO, and it is important that we help those people defend themselves against Russian aggression. That is why our ships are often on tour and deployed in the Black sea. Indeed, only recently, a Type 45 was deployed in that sea. At the same time, it is important to help Ukraine build its own capability, so that it can defend itself against aggressive Russian tactics, which is why, under Operation Orbital, we are out there right now, training its navy in how to do that.
Only recently, I hosted my colleague, the Defence Minister of Qatar, who came to see the joint Typhoon squadron that we operate in the United Kingdom. That squadron, obviously, uses Typhoon, which is built in Lancashire and has a supply chain that reaches right across the north of England. That is why my hon. Friend, like many in this House, will welcome the announcement of the next generation of the future combat air system. Billions of pounds will be put into research and development for the next generation of fighter. This will mean lots of jobs for people in the United Kingdom—in the north, south and south-west of England, and in Scotland.
UK-EU Future Relationship Negotiations and Transition Period
I am grateful for this opportunity to update the House on the progress of our negotiations with the European Union.
Intensive talks continue. In fact, the United Kingdom’s negotiating team, led by Lord Frost, has been in talks with the EU almost every day since 22 October and is working tirelessly to get a deal on our future relationship. This also affords us in this place the opportunity to show our collective resolve to get a good deal, our expectations of what that needs to look like, and what we will not accept. While there has been some progress across many areas, familiar differences remain on the so-called level playing field, fisheries and governance. Of these, the level playing field issue is currently the most difficult.
On Friday, after an intensive week of talks in London, the respective chief negotiators, Lord Frost and Michel Barnier, issued a joint statement. This outlined that the conditions for an agreement had not been met, and that talks should pause briefly to allow the Prime Minister and the Commission President to discuss the state of play on Saturday. Following their telephone call, the Prime Minister and President von der Leyen issued a joint statement. It welcomed progress, but noted that an agreement would not be feasible if the issues on the level playing field, fisheries and governance were not resolved. They agreed that a further effort should be made by the UK and the EU to assess whether the outstanding differences can be resolved, and instructed the chief negotiators to reconvene in Brussels.
We are at a critical moment in the negotiations. Teams are negotiating as we speak, and the Prime Minister will call the Commission President later this afternoon to discuss progress again. My right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster is in Brussels today, meeting the European Commission vice-president; they are meeting in their capacity as co-chairs of the UK-EU Joint Committee under the withdrawal agreement.
We are all working to get a deal, but the only deal that is possible is one that is compatible with our sovereignty, and that takes back control of our laws, trade and waters. While an agreement is preferable, we are prepared to leave on so-called Australian-style terms if we cannot find compromises. As the Prime Minister has made clear, people and businesses must prepare for the changes that are coming on 31 December, most of which are related to our departure from the EU single market and customs union, and not the outcome of these talks.
Mr Speaker, we will continue to keep the House updated as we seek to secure a future relationship with our EU friends that respects our status as a sovereign, equal and independent country.
Last year, the Prime Minister said that to leave with no deal would be a “failure of statecraft”, so this Government must take responsibility for their failure if we leave without a deal. We will hold the Government to account for whatever they bring back—deal or no deal.
With just 24 days to go until the end of the transition period, let me ask a few basic questions about this Government’s and our country’s readiness. Trading on World Trade Organisation terms would mean tariffs on lamb exports of 40%, so what is the latest assessment of how many farms would go to the wall in the event of no deal? Tariffs on car exports would be 10%, so what is the viability of our great automotive industry if there is no deal on rules of origin?
The Office for Budget Responsibility said last week—I am surprised the Chancellor did not mention it at all in his spending review statement—that if we leave without a deal, GDP would fall by an additional 2% next year, unemployment would rise by an additional 1% and inflation would be up 1.5%. Those are not just numbers; this is about British industries and people’s jobs. The detail does matter, so will the Minister admit to the House how many of the 50,000 customs agents who the Government agreed are needed by the end of the year have actually been recruited?
Today, the Minister for the Middle East and North Africa claimed that the oven-ready deal had already been delivered. If that is the case, it must have been sent to the wrong address, because the whole country is still waiting for the comprehensive trade and security deal that was promised to the British people at the general election less than a year ago.
Mr Speaker, you will remember that the former International Trade Secretary, the right hon. Member for North Somerset (Dr Fox), once said that a trade deal with the EU would be the “easiest in human history”. Let me finish by asking the Minister: is that still the view of this Government?
I have some sympathy with Her Majesty’s Opposition today, because although I have been involved with various aspects of the negotiations and am vice-chair of the Joint Committee under the withdrawal agreement, I have not been in the room for these negotiations, and neither has any Member of this House. I understand that we have so much invested in getting a good result, for all the reasons the hon. Lady sets out. This is how it must have been for an expectant father waiting for news outside the delivery room. I can understand the tension and frustration many Members must be feeling at this critical moment.
We are all waiting for what we hope is good news, but we are not powerless in this. We are all active players and participants, and we should all be doing everything we can at this critical moment to ensure that our negotiating team are supported, and that we get the best result for this country. That means that we should provide clarity and resolve about what we want from a deal and what we are not prepared to accept, and show united support for our negotiating team. I hope that all Members of this House will join me in sending our resolve and good wishes to Lord Frost and his team as they continue to work on our behalf. We must also provide the necessary focus to get the negotiations over the line, which many Members of this House did by ensuring that we did not extend the transition period.
Sadly, the hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves) and her colleagues on the Opposition Benches have failed to do any of those things to help us secure a good deal for this country. That is fair enough if Labour does not have a position on Brexit, but it might like to get one in the next few days.
All of us in this House must show support and resolve to get the deal that the hon. Lady articulates, and that we all want for citizens and businesses, not just within the UK but throughout the remainder of the EU. [Interruption.] I am turning to her questions; there were not that many. The tariff issues are published on gov.uk. I know that she has recently written to the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, who will reply to her in detail, as he always does.
What I would say to the hon. Lady, having been involved with transition preparations, is that when we have got into some of the detail—site visits and so forth, and helping ports, for example, put together their bids for the port infrastructure fund—assumptions that have been made about what we will need have been reduced. In my own local patch, for example, we were looking at having to have 10 freight gates. We now need only three because we have had greater clarity about how things will work.
We will keep the hon. Lady and all Members of the House updated on this front, but I assure her that we are making every effort to secure a deal. That is our aim. That is what everyone, I think, in this House would want, but that deal must respect the United Kingdom’s sovereignty and its integrity as a nation. We want to be able to control our own borders, set our own robust and principled subsidy control system, and control our waters. Those things are not up for compromise. We will not compromise. If the hon. Lady and colleagues want to assist Lord Frost and his team in that, that is the message that they should send them this afternoon in this place.
I thank my right hon. Friend for the statement. I, for one, absolutely have confidence in Lord Frost and the Prime Minister, who are basing their negotiations on a manifesto that won us a huge majority at the last election. The British public voted for a sovereign departure—that is to say, that we would be a sovereign nation. She is right, therefore, and does she not agree that although this is entitled a trade discussion or a trade deal, the truth is that at the end of the day, as she said, this is essentially about sovereignty? To have continuing control of our laws, our territorial waters and, for that matter, our trade are matters of sovereign control, not just trade. Will she give that message back to our negotiators, and say that they have the Government side of the House completely behind them?
I thank my right hon. Friend for his comments, and for saving my breath in saying that again. He is absolutely right. I think it has been a difficulty on the EU side to come to terms with the fact that we are a sovereign equal in these negotiations. We have made this point time and again. I know that many Government Members have made that point many times, but that is the sticking point. I hope that the EU negotiators, and all member states, have heard his message loudly and clearly.
So here we are at the 59th minute of the eleventh hour, where we were arguably always going to be. What was supposed to be the easiest deal in history has become the biggest unconcluded disaster of modern times. The oven-ready deal was in fact a barely defrosted turkey. We still do not know if it is to be a low deal or a no deal. The chaos is due to commence in a few short weeks, and we still do not know the scale of the carnage that each sector will have to endure.
What we do know, I suppose, is that it will all be the fault of these Europeans. We know that even if it is a low deal it will cost every Scot £1,600 and Scotland’s GDP will fall by 6.1%, and we know, of course, that Scotland rejected this whole miserable project. Will the Minister concede that these negotiations have been nothing other than a shambles, that the Government simply do not care about the repercussions of no deal, and that the views of Scotland simply do not matter? If the Government do not care about the views of Scotland, why should Scotland endure this misery any longer?
The hon. Gentleman has surpassed himself today. As someone who has worked very hard with Mike Russell and other colleagues to ensure that their views and ideas are taken up by the negotiating team, I can tell the hon. Gentleman that throughout the course of the negotiations the position has evolved to take on board many aspects of what his colleagues have been asking for—for example, participation in programmes. The team changed their original position and have gone in to negotiate very hard on things that they have asked for. If we have good news in the coming days, I hope that he will give the UK Government the entire credit.
Will my right hon. Friend ensure that the Government point out to our European partners that under their own treaty there cannot be any kind of deliberate go-slow or disruption of UK exports to the continent, whether or not we have a free trade agreement, because under their own treaty they are obliged to pursue free and fair trade with their neighbours, and, under article 8(1), to pursue good neighbourliness? Both the UK and the European Union have also signed up to the trade facilitation agreement at the World Trade Organisation, which obliges us to ensure that trade flows and does not get blocked by people doing box-ticking exercises, which are basically unnecessarily.
We all wish the negotiators well, not least—as my hon. Friend the Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves) pointed out earlier—because of the assessment of the Office for Budget Responsibility that no agreement could reduce real GDP by a further 2% in 2021, on top of the adverse consequences that will come from Brexit anyway. Does the Minister agree with that assessment? If so, can she explain to the House why, in the middle of the worst economic crisis for 300 years, the Prime Minister still appears to believe that no deal would be a good outcome? British business certainly does not.
The right hon. Gentleman will hear no argument from me to say that no deal is going to be better than getting a deal, but everyone is working to get a deal; that is our objective. That is why Lord Frost, as I speak, is there with his team trying to secure that. I would say to the right hon. Gentleman that delaying a decision and extending the negotiations—[Interruption.] Well, I think that is what he is driving at, but the facts are not going to change. We have all the information and the positions are as they are. It is only by continuing those negotiations, and by us continuing to put the pressure on for those negotiations to be concluded, that we will, I hope, arrive at a deal.
We all want to see a deal, but the difficulties are not really about trade. Uniquely, we began these negotiations with an entire identity of regulations, of tariffs and of trade law, which is unprecedented in the history of trade negotiations and should have made this more straightforward. Does my right hon. Friend agree that this is not really about trade difficulties, but about EU politics? It is about ensuring that no country follows the United Kingdom in exercising their legal powers to leave the European Union, and about the desire of some in the EU to limit the competitive potential of post-Brexit Britain.
I agree with my right hon. Friend. It is not just the issues that I have set out in the UK’s position that should be focusing the minds of the EU’s negotiating team and the Commission; it is also what is in the interests of their member states. Britain’s position—the United Kingdom’s position—is that we want this outcome not just for our own benefit, but for the benefit of all member states, and the businesses and citizens within them.
According to the Cabinet Office’s leaked reasonable worst-case scenario document, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the supply of medicines and medical devices could be reduced by up to 40%. In the spirit of doing all we can, can the Minister advise us of which products might be affected and whether my constituents, and indeed the constituents of every Member in this place, should start to stockpile them?
As has been said at the Dispatch Box before, a reasonable worst-case scenario is not a prediction; it is the worst case that we need to prepare for and mitigate for. We thought it was right—as we do across many areas, including covid—to think through those consequences and put those documents in the public domain, and the reasonable worst-case scenario was a document that we published. Whether it is food supplies, medicine or anything related to the covid pandemic, we have put in place mitigations for all sorts of things that could happen and could go wrong. We are not anticipating disruption to those supplies, and the work that we have undertaken includes the stockpiling of certain goods, securing our own freight capacity and many other things.
With regard to the fact that we are the first country in the world to have approved a vaccine for covid-19, does my right hon. Friend agree that we benefited from the ability to act quickly, nimbly and dynamically and that one of the key benefits of Brexit is that it will extend that ability across a number of different areas—for example, international trading relationships and social employment legislation? Will she assure me that, whatever happens come 31 December, we will have that ability and that power as a country to chart our own course and have a wonderful future?
I supported Brexit—I voted for it—and I think there are many positives and opportunities that will come from it, not least being able to increase our collaboration and co-operation with many countries around the world. Unless we eradicate covid, and unless we ensure that every nation has access to vaccines and can benefit from the science, whatever its provenance, we will not defeat this pandemic. We are an incredibly connected nation, and we need to do that. With the future that we have, we will be able to be a major player in ensuring that that happens.
The Government are doing the right thing in resisting any demand from the EU to take the power to impose penalties on the UK at some time in the future if Brussels deems that we have not kept pace with laws made outside the United Kingdom. Taking back control is the whole point of Brexit. In resisting the level playing field demands of the EU, the Government must also ensure that the EU’s demand for Northern Ireland to be included in its level playing field is resisted. If the Government do not do that, we have not taken back control—we have surrendered part of the United Kingdom to EU demands.
The right hon. Gentleman makes very good points that he has made many times over. The level playing field is the most difficult issue facing the negotiating teams at the moment, and I thank him for his comments, which will have been heard by the team today.
In simple terms, could my right hon. Friend confirm that the UK Government will not sign up to any agreement that compromises our sovereignty or our ability to reach new trade agreements with the many countries around the world that are very keen to do business with an independent Britain?
The Minister might know that I am a member of the Select Committee on the Future Relationship with the European Union, which will be abolished next week. As a member of that Committee, I have witnessed the sheer incompetence of the Government’s leadership. On Small Business Saturday this weekend, a businesswoman said to me, “We have suffered 1,000 cuts in the last year from covid. Why would any Government inflict another 1,000 cuts by coming out of Europe on the wrong terms, in the wrong way?”
What would be damaging for business is more prolonged uncertainty. Our businesses, as we have seen especially over the past year, are incredibly resilient and can cope with all sorts of things. What they cannot cope with is every eventuality as opposed to any eventuality. We need to give them certainty. I hope that we will soon be able to inform them of the remaining issues that the negotiating teams are working on. That will provide them with 100% clarity about the situation that they are facing. We will continue to support them to get ready for the transition.
We all wish the Prime Minister, Lord Frost and the negotiating team every success in securing a deal with the EU, but should the trade talks fail, the Government’s reasonable worst-case scenario suggests that there might be significant issues with the flow of imported medicines in the first few months. Will my right hon. Friend therefore reassure all our constituents that, come what may, there will be no impediment to imported covid-19 vaccines and other crucial medicines—if need be, in the worst-case scenario, deploying military transport?
I can give my hon. Friend and his constituents those assurances. This is an incredibly serious matter. The supply of medicines and medical devices, even without the pandemic, has always been a priority, going right back to last year and the potential no deal scenario planning that went on, with huge efforts. His question affords me the opportunity to pay tribute to the civil servants, military personnel, local resilience forums and many other people who have been planning and conducting exercises—and of course all the people who have been working on the winter planning assumptions around that. I can give him those assurances that we take this very seriously indeed.
Those assurances were flatly contradicted only last week by the head of the UK’s pharmaceutical industry, Richard Torbett, who said that border delays and, crucially, the absence of mutual recognition standards in the event of no deal will disrupt the supply of vital medicines to this country, including vaccines. Why should we believe Government Ministers rather than the man who heads our multibillion-pound medicines industry and knows what he is talking about?
There are many potential problems, but those problems have been methodically thought through. As I say, they range from administrative issues that the right hon. Gentleman refers to, right through to freight transport issues, including our securing back-up plans if commercial transport is not available or we have issues of pinch points on the key transit routes. In addition to that, and in addition to the phased approach to the border that is being taken next year, we have also, for the first few weeks, put additional measures in place to really try to ensure that there are no delays and no snarl-ups on those key freight routes.
I refer to my entry in the Register of Members’ Financial Interests.
My right hon. Friend is right, of course, to observe that it is in everybody’s interests that there should be a deal, and that uncertainty is damaging for everyone. Will she bear in mind that that is particularly acute for the people of Her Majesty’s territory of Gibraltar? Will she ensure that they, above all, as we have responsibility in these negotiations, are not allowed to become collateral damage? Will she also undertake to ensure that the Government of Gibraltar are kept fully informed of all developments and every assistance is given to ensure that whatever the outcome, there is a smooth and flowing land frontier and the delivery of essential services for Gibraltar?
I agree with all the points that my hon. Friend has made. I can assure him, from my involvement in the negotiations and keeping our partners informed, that all those issues with regard to Gibraltar are absolutely at the heart of our negotiating position. I thank him for raising that on the Floor of the House today.
In the worst case of no deal, tariffs on food imports from the EU would on average be over 20%, but on beef mince they would be 48%, cheddar cheese 57%, oranges 12%—the list goes on and on. Over the weekend, however, the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary said that the impact of tariffs would be “modest”. Will the Minister concede that that is not true for the third of children in Wales who live in poverty, or for poor children all across the UK?
As I said, information about tariffs has been published on gov.uk. What I would say to the hon. Gentleman is that we are negotiating to ensure that we can get a deal. I understand his concerns, but our efforts are to secure that deal. I hope he would join us in that effort and send a clear message today to the EU negotiating team that that is in the interests not just of his constituents, but of all citizens across the EU.
There is no doubt that it is in the best interests of all parties to secure a deal. However, for many residents in Aberconwy who voted to leave, sovereignty was a key driver. It has been cited throughout the negotiations as a red line, so will my right hon. Friend reassure all our constituents that, come what may, deal or no deal, after we leave the negotiations, we will do so with our sovereignty intact?
My right hon. Friend knows more than most how increasingly unstable our complex world is becoming. Does she agree that the threats we face, from both state and non-state actors, do not recognise international borders or the membership of political unions, and that no decision taken this week should diminish our collective security responsibility?
I agree with my right hon. Friend absolutely. It is one thing I have never accepted about what has been said about the EU’s negotiating position. I do not believe that member states would tolerate their own citizens being put in the way of greater harm. The security and defence co-operation we have between member states and ourselves is highly valued, and I think that would be recognised by all member states in that respect.
Does the Minister see the irony of UK negotiators trying to persuade our EU counterparts of our good faith when it comes to compliance with the rules of any new trade deal at exactly the time that the Prime Minister is today asking Parliament to vote to break international law by ripping up rules that were agreed barely a year ago? Can she tell us why the Government are apparently yet to agree to non-regression over current standards, when Ministers have repeatedly assured us that they intend to maintain and even enhance our own environmental standards?
I think that the trust for which the United Kingdom is renowned is deep. I think it is very well understood that the moves the Government have taken with regard to the United Kingdom Internal Market Bill have had to be taken as an insurance policy to preserve the integrity of our country. The Prime Minister and the Minister for the Constitution and Devolution, my hon. Friend the Member for Norwich North (Chloe Smith) have been very clear, as has been the Secretary of State Justice, on why we are taking this particular course of action. I still think that the United Kingdom is held in very high esteem in that respect.
A large number of colleagues have already mentioned the importance of parliamentary sovereignty, which we recognise as one of the most important cornerstones of our democracy. With people across the country voting overwhelmingly to get Brexit done, will my right hon. Friend assure Bishop Auckland residents and the House that any deal we sign will categorically not undermine our sovereignty and our ability to set our own border policy, or our ability to strike free trade deals with our global friends around the world?
Quite right. We have as a nation been on a rollercoaster over the past few years, and the British people have been absolutely resolved, as demonstrated at the last general election, that we are going to get this done. I think it would be a very difficult discussion to have with our constituents if we had gone through that rollercoaster for no upside. We have to secure these freedoms; we are a sovereign nation, and that is the future we must all look forward to.
Like the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland badly needs to see a deal, not least because no deal means the prospect of some tariffs being levied down the Irish sea interface. However, regardless of a deal or no deal, can the Minister give this House an assurance that the Government will work in good faith with the EU over the coming days to conclude the discussions in the Joint Committee around the implementation of the protocol, and that that will also include consideration of a grace or adjustment period for Northern Ireland businesses, which simply no longer have the time to prepare for 1 January?
Yes, I can give the hon. Gentleman those assurances. Although we are talking about issues that are extremely difficult, particularly the three issues that I alluded to earlier, the talks and negotiations are constructive and they are continuing apace. I hope that we will have good news in the coming days.
In light of the Opposition’s recent refusal to make any decision—as their constituents sent them to this place to do—in support of or opposition to the tier restrictions, what assessment has my right hon. Friend made of demands from some parts of the House for the Government to reach any deal with the European Union, while simultaneously considering voting against or not at all if any such deal is brought before this House?
This is a shambles. I held a meeting with local businesses in my constituency about the impact of this ongoing uncertainty all year. One owner of a logistics company said to me that the damage has been done. She waited throughout November for the deal; it did not come, and her business has now been killed and her staff have lost their jobs. Will the Minister apologise to business owners such as my constituent for this utter mess?
I am sorry to hear about the plight of the hon. Lady’s constituent. As I have reiterated many times before, I am available every day on covid or Brexit issues, if hon. Members want to talk. I am available at 10 am every single day and have been for weeks. I am not making a political point, but saying to all hon. Members, “If businesses are in difficulty for whatever reason, please do get in touch.” We would have liked this resolved earlier, but we are not prepared to compromise on matters that are of immense importance to many of her constituents. We will not compromise on those, but we are working incredibly hard to resolve the remaining issues, and I hope that in short order we will be able to provide her constituents and everyone else with the certainty that they need.
The Prime Minister has done a fantastic job over Brexit; he has taken the United Kingdom out of the European Union and I am absolutely confident that he will only bring back a deal to this House if it takes back control of our laws, borders and trade. In fact, I would bet my house that he will not betray those principles. However, may I ask the excellent Minister why the negotiations are still continuing? The EU said the absolute deadline for these negotiations was 31 October, and here we are on 7 December. Was the Minister hinting to us in her answer to the previous question that tonight we will get a decision one way or the other, a deal or no deal?
I am not hinting at that, although it would be jolly nice. In my opening response, I outlined what I am expecting to happen this afternoon in terms of the Prime Minister’s speaking to the Commission President. I am not raising that hope, but these negotiations are continuing because a deal is still possible, and we will continue to negotiate until that ceases to be the case.
Brexit has already cost our country billions, and we have seen investments slump in crucial sectors, a rise in unemployment, and some businesses leave our shores before we even reach the artificial, self-imposed deadline at the end of this year. How many more jobs will be lost? How much more economic damage will we suffer, and what further undermining of our international influence and national security will it take, before those who peddled the false promises of 2016 admit that they are simply undeliverable, in these negotiations or anywhere else?
I would ask the hon. Gentleman to reflect on why he thinks that our nation, collectively and together, voted to leave the EU. I am sure there was a range of issues. Some were economic, because people may not have wanted to be tied to the eurozone, but there were many other reasons. For many, it was about sovereignty, and being able to shape our own future. The policies that we are carrying out and doing our best to secure a deal for, are what we have a mandate to do from the British people. We put the question to them, they gave us their response, and it is incumbent on all of us in this place to act on their wishes.
The Government are under huge pressure this week to secure a deal—any deal. Does my right hon. Friend agree that the long-term economic and political consequences of a bad deal that keeps the UK in the regulatory orbit of the EU and not as an independent sovereign state, would be far worse than any temporary short-term consequences that might flow from no deal?
I agree with my hon. Friend. There has to be a point to all the upheaval that we have been through together as a nation over the past few years, and we can look forward to many positives with those new-found freedoms, including being able to make the right choices for this country. I say again: this is not just about the interests of the United Kingdom; I think that the negotiating position of the UK is also of benefit to the remainder of the EU.
The National Police Chiefs’ Council has said that losing access to criminal information if there is no negotiated agreement would have a “major impact” on counter-terrorism and serious organised crime. Obviously we all hope that a full agreement is imminent, but if an agreement is not reached on fish or level playing fields, have the Government drawn up proposals for a fallback security agreement? Does the Minister agree that if the UK and EU negotiators fail to secure arrangements that protect our citizens’ security, that would be highly irresponsible of both?
The right hon. Lady makes an excellent point, and that is one reason why a deal is in everyone’s interest, and why I have always thought that nations would not compromise on the security of their citizens. It is the responsibility of the Government on every aspect—whether on those issues raised by the right hon. Lady, freight transport, or whatever—to have thought through the consequences and prepared for them. That is the case for all issues, including the ones she raises.
The 70% of my constituents who voted to realise this country’s potential four years ago want the negotiating teams to succeed in obtaining a deal. I represent communities that are heavily based on manufacturing, so can the Minister reassure me that the negotiating team will continue to negotiate robustly on the point about rules of origin, and that they will stand up for manufacturing businesses, such as those in Wednesbury, Oldbury and Tipton?
I can give my hon. Friend those assurances. The team have done a tremendous job, and I know the detail they have gone into on each sector on that issue. It is helpful that my hon. Friend has reiterated the importance of those matters to his constituents this afternoon.
Even if there is a deal at this eleventh hour, it will be very thin, inflicting customs costs and delays on sectors that are already struggling to survive covid. The Minister has called on businesses to get ready, but the Government’s own IT systems are not ready; indeed, the fish export service will go live just two days before the end of transition. Does the fact that this Government are having to plan military flights to bring in medical supplies, including the vaccine, not make them pause for thought before such an act of self-harm?
It is right that we prepare for every possible contingency. There are all sorts of things that we have not mentioned this afternoon that are part of the Government’s in-tray—all sorts of contingencies that we have to think about. In the Cabinet Office, for example, I look after cyber issues. There are many things that we have to think about and many things that we have to prepare for, and it is right, particularly on medicines and medical devices, that we ensure that we have every contingency in place.
However, I would also point out to the hon. Lady that the border operating model and many things that businesses will need to do to get ready are not contingent on the final negotiations going on. We have invested heavily in support services for traders, businesses and citizens, and it has been right to do so. Again, if colleagues have issues with their constituents or businesses, please talk to me and I will do my best to get an official to talk to the business and put it in touch with the many webinars that are going on to help support businesses and citizens to make this transition.
I, for one, am delighted that we are finally going to reach a Brexit conclusion on 31 December. I am pleased to hear the continued commitment from my right hon. Friend to the red lines that have been set, and I know that many of my constituents will appreciate the stance taken by Lord Frost and the negotiating team. Will my right hon. Friend also recommit that, regardless of the outcome of trade talks, the Government will ensure that a UK shared prosperity fund is realised and that it finds its way to those places across the UK that most need it?
I thank my hon. Friend for his question. I do hope that next year, as we hopefully recover from the covid pandemic and make progress on the phased approach to the border and all the other things that we have been working so hard to put in place, we will really be able to turn to how we get economic growth happening across the whole United Kingdom and ensure that communities such as the one that he represents get the investment that they need and the opportunities that they deserve.
Scottish Government modelling of a basic trade agreement of the type that the Government are still trying and, it would appear, failing to negotiate finds that Scottish GDP is estimated to be 6.1% lower by 2030 compared with continued EU membership. That equates to an equivalent cost of around £1,600 for each person in Scotland, and that now looks like the best-case scenario. What assessment have the Government made of the combined impact of Brexit on top of the already severe impact on business and those about to lose their jobs due to the covid crisis?
What we need to be focusing on is how we ensure that, in every part of the UK, we can get the economic growth that we need and the infrastructure investment that we need. There will be opportunities that come from some of the investments that are being made over the transition period, and I would ask the hon. Gentleman to turn his energy and focus to those issues. We have left the EU. We will hopefully have news of a deal, but we will certainly have certainty for all our businesses and constituents in the coming days. We need to turn and look to the future and how we can help realise our constituents’ ambitions, and I encourage him to do that.
The 17.4 million people who gave such a clear instruction some four and a half years ago will look on with bemusement that there are still voices seeking to undermine that democratic mandate. Does my right hon. Friend agree that, in order to respect that democratic mandate, despite all the negativity and the negative voices undermining our excellent trade negotiators, the verdict must be a binary one—either we will be sovereign or we will not?
There is no question but that we will be sovereign; this is not an issue we are prepared to compromise on, but, as he has mentioned leave voters, I will stick up for remain voters. I have said this before, but I will say it again: the greatest act of patriotism in the past few years was shown by them in accepting the democratic result of the referendum. I think that everyone in this country wants us to be successful and make use of the opportunities that will be there next year as we come out of this ghastly pandemic. I hope that all Members will be working positively in the interests of all their constituents to do that.
I confess that I find all of this very depressing, partly because if I understand the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs correctly, the anticipation is that if there is no deal, the Government will be paying Welsh farmers to burn Welsh lamb carcases next spring when they cannot sell them in Europe. If I understand all the police forces in the UK and the National Crime Agency correctly, if there is no deal they will not be able to have the same access to EU databases to be able to track down criminals and send them to prison. Even more worrying than that for me is that historically, this House and this country have always been good at doing deals. Frankly, we have always been the country that has compromised. We have always known how to get the signature on the paper, but every time another Member from the Government Benches stands up and demands more intransigence from the Government, the more likelihood there is that there will be no deal, and that will be a catastrophe for all of us.
I would say two things to the hon Gentleman. There are many things that we can point to. In fact, the Prime Minister has tabled a statement this afternoon—I think it was tabled before I came into the Chamber—that points to two things that he has offered the President of the Commission as a way of moving this forward with regard to the United Kingdom Internal Market Bill. We have at many stages compromised and sought to find ways to encourage the EU negotiating team forward, so, with all due respect, I reject the hon. Gentleman’s description of how the Prime Minister and the negotiating team have operated. They have operated in good faith and have compromised on many areas, but there are some areas we will not compromise on, because it is not in the interests or the integrity of the United Kingdom to do so.
Finally, I just point the hon. Gentleman to the plan that the DEFRA Secretary set out at the start of the weekend just gone about the opportunities that exist for UK farms. We have opportunities to look after the environment, to actually have scientists at DEFRA, as opposed to lawyers, and many other things that are hugely beneficial to UK farming and the environment. I encourage him to look at them.
May I convey my full support to Lord Frost and the Prime Minister for their stance during these negotiations? I genuinely do not think they have put a foot wrong throughout this entire process. Like the Minister, I want to see a comprehensive free trade deal with the EU, but certainly not any deal and definitely not a deal that leaves us shackled to EU rules and regulations in perpetuity. I urge the Government to stand firm in these negotiations to ensure that we deliver on the Brexit that so many people voted for and that so many of us campaigned for over so many years.
I thank my hon. Friend for his comments, and I absolutely can give him those assurances. His question also affords me the opportunity to pay tribute to not just to the negotiating team and Whitehall civil servants, but the very many individuals, politicians and civil servants in the devolved Administrations, the Crown dependencies and elsewhere, who have worked incredibly hard to get us this far. It is because of all those efforts that I want to ensure that we get this over the line. All the encouragement that my hon. Friend and others can give in that respect is gratefully received.
The north-east region has consistently exported more than it imports, and the Government promised the people of the north-east an oven-ready deal with no tariffs, fees, charges or quantitative restrictions—a deal that would safeguard workers’ rights, consumer and environmental protections and keep people safe through a comprehensive security agreement. With the negotiations now going late in the day, and those promises looking increasingly overcooked, what are the Government doing to ensure that businesses and individuals in the north-east are able to properly prepare for and manage these changes to come?
The hon. Lady raises a very important point. I reiterate that we are working to get a deal. We will continue to negotiate until that becomes an impossibility, but I am hopeful that we will get a deal. We have invested a huge amount in ensuring that businesses are ready. Most of the things that businesses and citizens will need to do are already known and are not contingent on the final negotiations. I stand ready to assist if the hon. Lady’s constituents or businesses have particular issues, but an enormous amount of support is available—not just information but webinars and dialogue with experts and officials—to ensure that people have all the information. There is also, of course, the substantial campaign, which has been running for many weeks, to ensure that people are fully informed about what they need to do before the end of the year.
I am sure that my right hon. Friend will join me in congratulating the International Trade Department on the new trade deals with major markets, including Japan, Kenya and Canada, with many more to come. Will she confirm that nothing will be done in our negotiations with our friends from the European Union that will compromise our ability to do new trade deals around the world?