Reconviction Prediction Calculations
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether they agree with the statement made on page 21 of Home Office Research Study No. 38,
Parole in England and Wales that—
"in any statistical attempt to predict future behaviour from past experience, this experience should be monitored and the prediction instrument revised to take account of any changes in its relationship to reconviction",
and if so, whether they will cease calculating "prediction scores" derived from the reconviction records of 2,276 male prisoners released from prison in the first six months of 1965.
The validity of the present reconviction prediction calculations has received support from other more recent work but if this ceased to be the case the procedure and its use would be re-examined.
The Ncb Concessionary Coal Sheme
asked Her Majesty's Government:What numbers and categories of employees of the National Coal Board are entitled to free or cheap coal, and what is the estimated value of these concessions to the various categories in terms of the current market value of coal.
The details of the concessionary coal scheme are negotiated by the National Coal Board and the trade unions in the coal industry, and I am asking the chairman to write to the noble Lord on the points raised in his Question.
Grand Metropolitan Limited And Coral: Proposed Merger
asked Her Majesty's Government:What was the reason for the prolonged delay before they decided what the proposed merger between Grand Metropolitan Limited and the Coral Leisure Group should be referred to the Monopolies Commission; and whether they would hope to announce such decisions more expeditiously in the future.
There was no unreasonable delay. A merger reference raising important questions of public interest requires careful consideration. Where a public offer is involved the Government aim (and are usually able) to announce their decision before the first closing date of the offer, though it is generally accepted that the decision may cometimes take longer. In this case the decision to make a reference was announted at the start of business on the day following the first closing date of the offer.
Micro-Electronics: Training Opportunities
asked Her Majesty's Government:What steps they are taking other than the Inmos scheme to train young technologists in microchip techniques for the consumer and defence industries of the United Kingdom.
There has been an increased emphasis on micro-electronics in the general educational system in the last two years. In addition, the Department of Industry under its Microprocessor Application Project provides grants for the development of short courses to train engineers from industry in micro-electronic techniques. Over 34,000 places on such courses have been added to the 2,500 estimated as annually available in 1978. The department has also sponsored a competition which will result in more than 100 micro-computers being placed in secondary schools. The Manpower Services Commission provides grants under the Training for Skills programme to assist with key skill imbalances and is giving particular priority to the new technologies.
Unemployment: Cost To The Exchequer
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether they will set out in tabular form their best estimates of the average monthly cost to the Exchequer when an adult male worker on average weekly earnings (on the basis of all industries and services covered by the New Earnings Survey, updated if appropriate by the average earnings index, and assuming pay was not affected by absence) becomes unemployed, showing separately (
a) for single men, and ( b) for a married man with two children, one aged under five, and the other between five and ten, the following disbursements:—
and the following losses of revenue:—
The monthly financial cost to the Exchequer will vary according to how long the worker has been unemployed. The following tables, which update those given in the Manpower Services Commission's Review and Plan, 1977, therefore show the costs for the first twelve months separately, as well as the average for the first year. The example used in the answer is an adult male on average weekly earnings. This is not typical of the unemployed as a whole who tend to have lower than average male weekly earnings when in employment.
FINANCIAL COST TO THE GOVERNMENT OF UNEMPLOYMENT SINGLE MAN NO CHILDREN
LOSS OF REVENUE
|1979 Dec.||1980 Jan.|
Monthly Average (Dec. 1979-Nov. 1980)
|Net loss of Indirect Tax||31·97||26·92||29·22||28·07||46·71||45·45||52·47||54·14||55·07||55·07||54·14||51·78||44·25|
|Employee National Insurance contributions||31·21||31·21||31·21||31·21||38·66||38·66||38·66||38·66||38·66||38·66||38·66||38·66||36·13|
|Total loss of Revenue||239·80||234·75||237·05||235·09||301·32||300·06||307·08||308·75||309·68||309·68||308·75||306·39||283·27|
|Flat rate unemployment benefit||70·92||83·25||77·08||80·17||80·17||83·25||77·08||83·25||80·17||80·17||83·25||79·23||79·83|
|Earnings related supplement||31·10||59·98||55·54||57·76||57·76||59·98||24·43||—||—||—||—||—||49·51|
|Income Tax rebate||32·25||32·25||32·25||32·25||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||32·25|
|Total Transfer Payments||168·88||195·47||183·37||189·42||163·15||169·43||134·35||126·00||121·34||121·34||126·00||137·81||153·05|
|Total Financial Cost to the Goverment||408·68||430·22||420·42||425·32||464·47||469·49||441·43||434·75||431·02||431·02||434·75||444·20||436·31|
NOTES—(for Single Man)
|1. The man is assumed to be single with no children. He becomes unemployed on 1st December 1979.|
|2. Earnings: For each financial year, the man's earnings are assumed to be at the level of average earnings for adult males whose pay was not affected by absence, all industries and services covered by the New Earnings Survey, updated to October using the average earnings index (old series, all industries and services, adjusted).|
|If he were not made unemployed. It is assumed his earnings would increase in April 1980 to the average level for 1980–81, assuming a 19·3 per cent, increase over 1979–80. Average earnings each year are then (£ per week):|
|3. Tax payments, national insurances contributions, and tax refunds are assumed to be the same in each month regardless of the number of days in the month. He is assumed not to be conttacted-out of the state pension scheme.|
|4. Flat rate unemployment benefit is not paid for the first 3 days of unemployment and earnings related supplement for the first twelve. Once awarded unemployment benefit is paid for 312 days and earnings related supplement for 156 days.|
|5. Supplementary Benefit: It is unlikely that supplementary benefit would be paid for the first few days of unemployment, pending receipt of unemployment benefits. The final wages received would be taken into consideration, and in most cases, would cover requirements for this period.|
|6. Rent and Rates: For 1979–80 rent is assumed to be £5·40 per week and rates £2·30 per week (Hansard, v. 973, no. 61, col. 217 et seq). For 1980–81 rent is assumed to be £7·10 per week and rates £2·90 per week (Hansard, v. 983, no. 167, cols. 660 et seq).|
|7. Income tax refunds are not counted as income when calculating entitlements to rent and rate rebates. There is no entitlement to rebates whilst in receipt of supplementary benefit, which includes an allowance for full rent and rates.|
|8. Net loss of indirect tax: His loss of purchasing power when unemployed compared with his position if in employment was calculated first, taking into account all transfer payments. According to the Economic Trends analysis based on the Family Expenditure Survey (The effects of taxes and benefits on household income 1978, Economic Trends, January 1980) for a household consisting of one non-retired adult with income around male average earnings, 19·5 per cent of disposable income in 1978 went on indirect taxes. Excluding rates, which we have already allowed for, and allowing for the offsetting effect of subsidies, gives a figure of about 15·6 per cent. The increase in VAT and hydrocarbon oil duty in the June 1979 budget could be expected to raise this by about 3·5 per cent, to 19 per cent, in 1979–80. The April 1980 budget is assumed to have increased the share of indirect taxes by 1 per cent, of disposable income, making a total of 20 per cent, in 1980–81. These percentages have been applied to the loss of disposable income when unemployed to give the figures of net loss of indirect tax in the table.|
FINANCIAL COST TO THE GOVERNMENT OF UNEMPLOYMENT MARRIED MAN WITH 2 CHILDREN
LOSS OF REVENUE
|1979 Dec||1979 Jan|
Monthly Average (Dec. 1979-Nov. 1980)
|Net loss of Indirect Tax||17·76||11·24||14·94||12·90||38·25||34·87||44·45||44·61||47·71||45·52||43·66||44·05||33·33|
|Employee NI contributions||31·21||31·21||31·21||31·21||38·66||38·66||38·66||38·66||38·66||38·66||38·66||38·66||36·18|
|Employer NI contributions||64·82||64·82||64·82||64·82||78·48||78·48||78·48||78·48||78·48||78·48||78·48||78·48||73·93|
|Total loss of Revenue||209·34||202·82||206·52||204·48||273·61||270·23||279·81||279·97||283·07||280·88||279·02||279·41||254·10|
|Flat Rate unemployment benefit||127·84||150·08||138·96||144·52||144·52||150·08||138·96||150·08||144·52||144·52||150·08||149·58||144·48|
|Earnings related supplement||31·10||59·98||55·54||57·76||57·76||59·98||24·43||—||—||—||—||—||49·51|
|Income Tax rebate||48·50||48·50||48·50||48·50||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||48·50|
|Free School meals||4·50||600||7·00||7·35||4·20||9·90||9·45||6·30||—||9·90||10·35||9·00||7·63|
|Free Welfare milk||1·35||—||—||—||—||—||3·14||5·12||5·27||5·10||5·27||5·10||4·34|
|Total Transfer Payments||270·81||301·14||283·92||293·40||246·01||261·02||223·27||217·75||203·96||213·69||221·95||220·21||246·43|
|Total Financial Cost to the Government||450·15||503·96||490·44||497·88||519·62||531·25||503·08||497·72||487·03||494·57||500·97||499·62||500·52|
NOTES—(for married man with 2 children)
|1. The man is assumed to be married with two children, one aged under 5, one aged 5–10, and his wife is assumed not to be working. He becomes unemployed on 1st December 1979.|
|2. As for the single man.|
|3. As for the single man.|
|4. As for the single man.|
|5. As for the single man.|
|6. Rent and rates: For 1979–80 rent is assumed to be £6·90 per week, and rates £2·78 per week. For 1980–81 rent is assumed to be £8·20 per week and rates £3·55 per week. (Hansard op cit).|
|7. As for the single man.|
|8. Net loss of indirect tax: His loss of purchasing power when unemployed compared to his position if in employment was calculated first, taking into account all transfer payments. According to the Economic trends analysis based on the Family Expenditure Survey (The effects of taxes and benefits on household income, 1978, Economic Trends, January 1980) for a household with around average earnings, 21–5 per cent, of disposable income in 1978 went on indirect taxes. Excluding rates, which have already been taken into account, and allowing for the offsetting effect of subsidies, gives a figure of about 18 per cent. The increase in VAT and hydrocarbon oil duty in the June 1979 budget could be expected to raise this by about 3·5 per cent, to 21·5 per cent, in 1979–80. The April 1980 budget is assumed, to have increased the share of indirect taxes by 1 per cent, of disposable income, making a total of 22·5 per cent, in 1980–81. These percentages have been applied to the loss of disposable income when unemployed to give the figures of net loss of indirect tax in the table.|
Sewers And Pipes: Estimates For Remedial Work
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether they agree with the estimate of a figure between £875 million and £3,286 million as being required for remedial work on sewers in Britain within the next two years and, if not, what is their own estimate of the requirement; what is their estimate of the sums that need spending on underground gas pipes within the next two years; what is their estimate of the sums that need spending on water mains; whether they intend that these repairs should be carried out and, if so, to what extent; whether traffic heavier than that for which the sewers and pipes were designed is reponsible for accelerating the decay of the pipes and, if so, what steps they are proposing to take to reduce the sum of public money spent on avoidable damage.
Responsibility for the assessment of the condition of underground services and the preparation of programmes of renewal lies with the water authorities in England and Wales for water mains and sewers and with British Gas Corporation for gas pipelines. The latest five-year plans of the water authorities, published earlier this year, give no indication of the need to spend sums of the order of £875 million to £3,286 million in the short term on sewer renewals. The National Water Council's appraisal of the aggregate capital programme for all water services suggests that 38 per cent, of annual expenditure—that is, about £230 million—is spent on renewal works. There is no separate breakdown of renewal expenditure on water mains and sewers within this total. The council concludes that, in many areas, current investment on renewal and renovation of sewers appears to be of the right order to maintain present levels of service and to deal with any serious cases of deterioration.However, in some areas, there may be a need to increase this type of investment, for example, substantially, in the case of the north west where the problem is most serious. The required level of renewal investment over the next few years will be reviewed and revised as the water authorities gain more information on the condition of their assets. Expenditure by the Gas Corporation on renewal of pipelines is partly from revenue and partly on capital account, and the gross annual rate of spending is considered to be adequate in relation to needs. Again, there is no apparent need for any sudden increase in the rate of renewals in the near future.Increase in traffic intensity is only one of the factors which affect the rate of decay of underground services. The responsible authorities have a substantial programme of research and survey work under way to determine the present condition and rate of deterioration of such services, but it is too early to say what the results might show will be necessary in the way of future annual maintenance and renewal costs.
Northern Ireland: Sewage Disposal Scheme Standards
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether it is their policy that all new sewage disposal schemes should conform with EEC and Royal Commission standards and, if so, whether they are satisfied that the scheme now under construction at Portaferry, Co. Down, Northern Ireland, where comminuted but otherwise untreated sewage will be discharged into Strangford Lough, conforms therewith.
All new sewage disposal schemes constructed in Northern Ireland meet the standards laid down by the Royal Commission on Sewage Disposal and the Portaferry scheme conforms to these standards. There are no relevant EEC standards for such schemes.The Royal Commission's standard in relation to tidal water requires no treatment of sewage where its dilution exceeds 500:1; at Portaferry the dilution factor will be many thousands to one. An independent expert, Mr. Gameson, formerly of the Water Research Centre, has investigated the proposals and found them satisfactory. My honourable friend the Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Mr. Goodhart) is arranging for local groups to be involved in monitoring the operation of the scheme.
N Ireland: Hospital Admission Waiting Lists For Children
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether they will publish details of the waiting lists for admission to hospitals of children of school age, in each of the four administrative board areas, in Northern Ireland for each quarter since 1977.
This information is not available as children are not separately identified on waiting lists.
Local Government Electorate: Rate Distribution
asked Her Majesty's Government:What proportion of the total local government electorate pay full rates, partial rates and zero rates; and what is the division of rate payments between: (
a) households, and ( b) industry and commerce.
The information, as far as it is available, is set out below. It is not possible to distinguish between those on full and those on partial rate relief in A(iv) below. All figures are for England and Wales for 1979–80;
|Electorate at May 1979 36·7m||Households at May 1979 17·8m||Ratepayers on Full Rates 13·0m (%of(i)=35 %of(ii)=73)||Households in receipt of rate rebates or Supplementary Benefit assistance with rates 4·8m (%of(i)=13 %of(ii)=27)|
|B. RATE DISTRIBUTION|
Empty Properties: Short-Life Use
asked Her Majesty's Government:What is their estimate of the number of houses and flats, owned by local authorities and housing associations, that are now boarded-up while awaiting demolition, improvement or major repair; and what steps they are taking to encourage the maximum amount of "short-life" use.
On the basis of the Vacant Property Survey, it is estimated that in Spring 1977 local authorities and New Town Development Corporations in England owned about 70,000 vacant properties which were awaiting either demolition or building work. It is not known how many of these properties were boarded up. Similar information is not available for housing associations.The Government are anxious to see that the best and most efficient use is made of the housing stock. Short-life schemes have a part to play. Circular 76/77
Better Use of Vacant and Under-Occupied Housing gives general advice. The Housing Act 1980, by excluding from security of tenure short-term lettings to the homeless, students and job movers (either by local authorities or housing associations), and properties on land acquired for development, offers encouragement to local authorities to utilise empty properties in this way.
Public Sector Index-Linked Pensions
asked Her Majesty's Government:What numbers and categories of employees in central and local government and in public agencies are: (
a) currently drawing indexed pensions, and ( b) entitled to indexed pensions on retirement.
The following table sets out the approximate numbers of (a) pensions in payment to former employees and their dependants and (b) serving members of the main public service superannuation schemes.
|CURRENTLY DRAWING PENSIONS||ENTITLED TO PENSIONS|
|Scheme||Retired||Dependants||Total Pensions||Serving Members|
|Civil and Diplomatic Services||290||95||385||700|
|Police and Fire||91||41||132||165|