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Reconviction Prediction Calculations

Volume 414: debated on Wednesday 12 November 1980

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asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether they agree with the statement made on page 21 of Home Office Research Study No. 38,

Parole in England and Wales that—

"in any statistical attempt to predict future behaviour from past experience, this experience should be monitored and the prediction instrument revised to take account of any changes in its relationship to reconviction",

and if so, whether they will cease calculating "prediction scores" derived from the reconviction records of 2,276 male prisoners released from prison in the first six months of 1965.

The validity of the present reconviction prediction calculations has received support from other more recent work but if this ceased to be the case the procedure and its use would be re-examined.