asked Her Majesty's Government:Why, in estimating the numbers who have found work because of the New Deal, they ignore the effects of substitution; and whether they will give references for any academic studies which support them in so doing. [HL368]
We have in place a comprehensive macro-evaluation of the New Deal, which includes an analysis of the net numbers of people moving into work. Independent evaluation conducted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research published last year considered whether there was evidence that 18 to 24 year-olds were being taken on instead of older workers and concluded that there was little sign of substitution. The same report found that long-term youth unemployment would be twice as high without New Deal and the economy is richer by £500 million a year because of New Deal.