Forecasts of expenditure on tax credits and child benefit are based on caseload rather than take-up forecasts.
Forecasts of pension credit expenditure are based on forecast increases in the pension credit caseload, driven primarily by growth in the estimated entitled population.
Forecasts of housing benefit and council tax benefit expenditure are based on forecast changes in housing benefit caseload and average awards. The caseload forecasts are driven primarily by changes in the estimated recipient populations for other benefits to which entitlement to housing benefits is related. There are no direct assumptions made for changes in the take-up of housing benefits. If necessary, off-model caseload adjustments are used to reflect the impact on take-up of future policy changes.