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Public Sector Borrowing

Volume 710: debated on Monday 11 May 2009

Question

Asked by

To ask Her Majesty's Government what was the prediction made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in each of the past 10 years relating to the public sector borrowing requirement and annual economic growth; and, in each case, what was the actual figure. [HL2860]

Projections for public sector net borrowing (PSNB) and annual GDP growth in each of the past 10 years for the current year and year ahead are shown in the tables below:

PSPB (£ billion)

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

Outturn

5.8

4 5

-15.5

-18.3

-0.2

25.1

33.2

39.9

37.7

30.8

34.6

90.0

Budget 1998 (PSBR)

2.6

2.3

1998 Pre-Budget

5.7

-2.9

6

Budget 1999

-2.8

4

5

1999 Pre-Budget

-4.5

-2.1

-1

Budget 2000

-11.9

-6

-5

2000 Pre-Budget

-16.4

-10.1

-6

Budget 2001

-16.4

-6

1

2001 Pre-Budget

-18.8

2.5

12

Budget 2002

1.3

11

13

2002 Pre-Budget

1.2

20.1

24

Budget 2003

24.0

27

24

2003 Pre-Budget

22.5

37.4

31

Budget 2004

37.5

33

31

2004 Pre-Budget

34.8

34.2

33

Budget 2005

34.4

32

29

2005 Pre-Budget

38.8

37.0

34

Budget 2006

37.1

36

30

2006 Pre-Budget

37.5

36.8

31

Budget 2007

35.0

34

30

2007 Pre-Budget

31.0

38.0

36

Budget 2008

43

2008 Pre-Budget

77.6

GDP Growth (%)

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Outturn

3.6

3.5

3.9

2.5

2.1

2.8

2.8

2.1

2.8

3.0

0.7

Budget 1998

2-2 ½

1 ¾-2 ¼

1998 Pre-Budget

2 ¾

1-1 ½

Budget 1999

1-1 ½

2 ¼-2 ¾

1999 Pre-Budget

1 ¾

2 ½-3

Budget 2000

2 ¾-3 ¼

2 ¼-2¾

2000 Pre-Budget

3

2 ¼-2¾

Budget 2001

2 ¼-2¾

2 ¼-2¾

2001 Pre-Budget

2 ¼

2-2 ½

Budget 2002

2-2 ½

3-3 ½

2002 Pre-Budget

1 ½

2 ½ -3

Budget 2003

2-2 ½

3-3 ½

2003 Pre-Budget

2

3-3 ½

Budget 2004

3-3 ½

3-3 ½

2004 Pre-Budget

3 ¼

3-3 ½

Budget 2005

3-3 ½

2 ½ -3

2005 Pre-Budget

1 ¾

2-2 ½

Budget 2006

2-2 ½

2 ¾-3 ¼

2006 Pre-Budget

2 ¾

2 ¾-3 ¼

Budget 2007

2 ¾ -3 ¼

2 ½ -3

2007 Pre-Budget

3

2-2 ½

Budget 2008

1 ¾-2 ¼

2008 Pre-Budget

¾

Central to the Government's retrospective reporting and analysis of fiscal issues and their commitment to transparency, HM Treasury publishes the End of year fiscal report (EYFR), which reports the differences between forecasts and fiscal outturn for the year-ahead forecasts published in Budgets. The latest 2008 EYFR is available on www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/prebud_pbr08_fiscalreport.htm.