To ask Her Majesty's Government what is the average number of days that prisoners serving indeterminate sentences for public protection with a tariff of two years or less are serving over their tariff. [HL5440]

To ask Her Majesty's Government what is the estimated number of indeterminate sentences for public protection that will be given in each of the calendar years 2009 to 2012. [HL5442]

Indeterminate imprisonment or detention sentences for public protection (IPP) were introduced in the Criminal Justice Act 2003. The Criminal Justice and Immigration Act 2008 introduced a number of changes to this sentence, including giving the courts a wider discretion in their use and providing for a minimum tariff of two years below which IPPs cannot be given, except where offenders have committed extremely serious crimes in the past. These changes will ensure that these sentences are better targeted on the most dangerous offenders.

IPPs (including the changes introduced in 2008) are modelled as part of the published prison population projections (published on the Ministry of Justice website, copies are in the House Libraries).

The modelling uses assumptions based on available data and the expert views of stakeholders. The most recent projections use the assumption that there will on average be 45 IPP prisoner receptions per month after the changes introduced by the Criminal Justice and Immigration Act.

To ask Her Majesty's Government how many prisoners serving indeterminate sentences for public protection are expected to be over tariff in each of the calendar years 2009 to 2012. [HL5433]

As of 9 September 2009, 162 prisoners serving an indeterminate sentence for public protection were recorded as having a tariff of two years or less. This figure excludes those who have been released and who were subsequently recalled following the revocation of their licences. The average amount of time this group has been held in prison beyond the expiry of their tariff is 244 days.

The Ministry of Justice publishes projections of the future prison population. IPPs are modelled as part of the latest projections (published on the Ministry of Justice website, copies are in the House Libraries). The population of prisoners serving IPPs who are past their tariff is not separately modelled as part of the published prison population projections.

It is difficult to model the IPP population with great accuracy because of the recent changes made to the sentence in the Criminal Justice and Immigration Act 2008. The population is estimated to rise to around 5,400 by around 2011 and to stay more or less level after that. However, small changes to the rates of receptions for such long sentences as IPPs have large impacts on the prison population, although the impacts will not be felt for many years.