To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of research by Professor Don Easterbrook of Washington University that there is a correlation between sea temperatures and global temperatures and that the present trend indicates 30 years of global cooling. [HL5828]

Professor Easterbrook has claimed that global average temperature may decrease over the next 30 years, due to the onset of a cool phase in a natural pattern of Pacific climate variability that is often referred to as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). My department is not, however, aware of any scientific articles published by Professor Easterbrook to support his claim and considers the suggested scenario to be very unlikely.

Historical records of global average and regional temperatures show that the PDO produces at most only a small effect on global average temperature. As a result, the PDO is not expected to produce a global average effect large enough to overcome the amount of warming expected over the next 30 years from current and future levels of greenhouse gases.