To ask Her Majesty’s Government what was the Chief Medical Officer’s forecast of the number of deaths from swine flu; and how many deaths to date are attributable solely to swine flu. [HL1401]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what was the Chief Medical Officer’s forecast of the number of deaths from bird flu; and how many deaths to date are attributable solely to bird flu. [HL1402]

The department has never made forecasts of the number of deaths from swine flu or avian flu. Planning assumptions about a pandemic’s course were used to inform preparedness planning, recognising that the precise characteristics and impact of a pandemic flu virus would only become apparent as the virus emerged.

The national framework for pandemic flu (Pandemic flu: a national framework for responding to an influenza pandemic) has already been placed in the Library and can be found at:

http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/publicationsandstatistics/Publications/PublicationsPolicyAndGuidance/DH_080734

It was published in 2007 and set out a number of assumptions for planning purposes which gave a range of possible scenarios. These assumptions were for an influenza pandemic of any kind, including the potential for a human virus evolved from current avian flu.

The department and Cabinet Office issued revised guidance to planners as information about the characteristics of swine flu became available. The assumptions were revised as more information became available and regular updates were issued to ensure United Kingdom planners were equipped with the most up-to-date information. We have been clear that the planning assumptions have never been a prediction of what would happen; they simply set out the reasonable worst-case scenario for planning purposes.

The Chief Medical Officer (CMO) was not involved in drawing up the figures given in the planning assumptions, which were based on the advice of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.

The CMO has carried out a confidential investigation of swine flu-related deaths since the pandemic began. As of 21 January 2010, there had been 279 swine flu-related deaths in England. Of these, approximately 20 per cent had no pre-existing diseases or underlying medical conditions.

Further detail is available in a report in the British Medical Journal, “Donaldson U, Rutter PD, Ellis BM, Greaves FEC, Mytton OT, Pebody RG and Yardley IE. Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: public health surveillance study. BMJ 2009;339 b5213.”