Order. Before I call the Chancellor of the Exchequer, I would like to make a short statement.

Over the past few days, Ministers have made a series of new policy announcements with significant and wide-ranging implications for the Government’s fiscal policy and for the public finances. It is evident to me that they should have been made in this House in the first instance. The principle is unambiguously set out in paragraph 9.1 of the ministerial code. The premature disclosure of the contents of the Budget has always been regarded as a supreme discourtesy to this House and to all of its democratically elected MP, not to mention to Mr Speaker and the Chairman of Ways and Means—[Interruption.] I really do not need any help.

Let me remind Members on the Treasury Bench that the Budget statement and the ensuing resolutions are

“the most important business of Ways and Means”

in the House, as set out in “Erskine May” paragraph 36.33. I am disappointed by comments made by Government spokespeople believing they can use precedent as an excuse. I am telling them today that they are entirely wrong.

Mr Speaker has always defended the undoubted right of this House, including Members of Opposition parties and Back Benchers from all parts of the House, to be the first to hear major Government policy announcements on behalf of their constituents. As Chairman of Ways and Means, I have responsibility to oversee the House’s consideration of the Budget fairly and impartially, and to ensure hon. Members on both sides of the House have adequate opportunity to hold the Chancellor to account.

Finally, we, collectively, should all remember to respect the Chair, respect our colleagues and respect this House.

Before I call the Chancellor of the Exchequer, I remind hon. Members that copies of the Budget resolutions will be available from the Vote Office in the Members’ Lobby at the end of the Chancellor’s statement, and online. I also remind hon. Members that interventions are not taken during the Chancellor’s statement, nor during the replies of the Leader of the Opposition or the Leader of the Liberal Democrat party.

I call the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Madam Deputy Speaker, on 4 July, the country voted for change. This Government were given a mandate: to restore stability to our economy and to begin a decade of national renewal; to fix the foundations and deliver change through responsible leadership in the national interest. That is our task, and I know that we can achieve it.

My belief in Britain burns brighter than ever, and the prize on offer is immense. As my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister said on Monday, change must be felt: more pounds in people’s pockets; an NHS that is there when we need it; and an economy that is growing, creating wealth and opportunity for all, because that is the only way to improve living standards. The only way to drive economic growth is to invest, invest, invest. There are no shortcuts, and, to deliver that investment, we must restore economic stability and turn the page on the last 14 years.

This is not the first time that it has fallen to the Labour party to rebuild Britain. In 1945, it was the Labour party that rebuilt our country out of the rubble of the second world war. In 1964, it was the Labour party that rebuilt Britain with the white heat of technology, and, in 1997, it was the Labour party that rebuilt our schools and our hospitals. Today, it falls to this Labour party—to this Labour Government—to rebuild Britain once again. And while this is the first Budget in more than 14 years to be delivered by a Labour Chancellor, it is the first Budget in our country’s history to be delivered by a woman. I am deeply proud to be Britain’s first ever female Chancellor of the Exchequer. To girls and young women everywhere, I say: let there be no ceiling on your ambition, your hopes and your dreams. Along with the pride that I feel standing here today, there is also a responsibility to pass on a fairer society and a stronger economy to the next generation of women.

Madam Deputy Speaker, the Conservative party failed our country: its austerity broke our national health service; its Brexit deal harmed British businesses; and its mini-Budget left families paying the price with higher mortgages. The British people have inherited the Conservative party’s failure: a black hole in the public finances; public services on their knees; a decade of low growth; and the worst Parliament on record for living standards.

Let me begin with the public finances. In July, I exposed a £22 billion black hole at the heart of the previous Government’s plans—a series of promises that they made, but had no money to deliver—covered up from the British people and covered up from this House. The Treasury’s reserve, set aside for genuine emergencies, was spent three times over just three months into the financial year. Today, on top of the detailed document that I provided to the House in July, the Government are publishing a line-by-line breakdown of the £22 billion black hole that we inherited, which shows hundreds of unfunded pressures on the public finances this year, and into the future too.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has published its own review of the circumstances around the spring Budget forecast. It says that the previous Government

“did not provide the OBR with all the information to them”

and that, had the OBR known about these

“undisclosed spending pressures that have since come to light”,

then its spring Budget forecast for spending would have been “materially different”.

Let me be clear: that means that any comparison between today’s forecast and the OBR’s March forecast is false, because the previous Government hid the reality of their public spending plans. Yet at the very same Budget, they made another £10 billion-worth of cuts to national insurance. It was the height of irresponsibility, and they knew it. They had run out of road, and they called an election to avoid making difficult choices. So let me make this promise to the British people: never again will we allow a Government to play fast and loose with the public finances and never again will we allow a Government to hide the true state of our public finances from our independent forecaster. That is why I can today confirm that we will implement in full the 10 recommendations from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility’s review.

The country has inherited not just broken public finances, but broken public services. The British people can see and feel that in their everyday lives: NHS waiting lists at record levels; children in portacabins as school roofs crumble; trains that do not arrive; rivers filled with polluted waste; prisons overflowing; crimes that are not investigated; and criminals who are not punished. That is the country’s inheritance from the Conservative Government. They had no plan to improve our public services and they had no plan to put our public finances on a sustainable footing—quite the opposite.

Since 2021, there have been no detailed plans for departmental spending set out beyond this year, and the previous Government’s plans relied on a baseline for spending this year, which we now know was wrong because it did not take into account the £22 billion black hole. They also failed to budget for costs that they knew would materialise, including funding for vital compensation schemes for victims of two terrible injustices—[Interruption.]

Order. I have just spoken about respecting colleagues. The public are watching, and they want to hear what the Chancellor has to say. Simmer down.

I would politely suggest that hon. Members listen to this, because it includes funding for vital compensation schemes for victims of two terrible injustices: the infected blood scandal and the Post Office Horizon scandal.

The Leader of the Opposition rightly made an unequivocal apology for the injustice of the infected blood scandal on behalf of the British state, but he did not budget for the costs of compensation. Today, for the very first time, we will provide specific funding to compensate those infected and those affected in full, with £11.8 billion in this Budget. I am also today setting aside £1.8 billion to compensate victims of the Post Office Horizon scandal—redress that is long overdue for the pain and injustice that they have suffered.

The leadership campaign for the Conservative party has now been going on for over three months, but in all that time there has been not one single apology for what they did to our country. The Conservative party has not changed—but this is a changed Labour party and we will restore stability to our country once again. The scale and seriousness of the situation that we have inherited cannot be underestimated. Together, the hole in our public finances this year, which recurs every year, the compensation schemes that the previous Government did not fund, and their failure to assess the scale of the challenges facing our public services, means that this Budget raises taxes by £40 billion. Any Chancellor standing here today would have to face this reality, and any responsible Chancellor would take action. That is why today I am restoring stability to our public finances and rebuilding our public services.

As a former economist at the Bank of England, I know what it means to respect our economic institutions. I put on record my thanks to the Governor of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, and the independent Monetary Policy Committee. Today, I can confirm that we will maintain the MPC’s target of 2% inflation, as measured by the 12-month increase in the consumer prices index. I thank James Bowler, the permanent secretary to the Treasury, and my team of officials. I also thank my predecessors as Chancellor of the Exchequer for their wise counsel as I have prepared for this Budget. In particular, I thank the former right hon. Member for Spelthorne for his invaluable advice in this weekend’s papers, where he concluded that his mini-Budget “wasn’t perfect”. For once, he and I are in absolute agreement. Finally, I thank Richard Hughes and his team at the Office for Budget Responsibility for their work in preparing today’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Let me take the House through that forecast. The cost of living crisis under the last Government stretched household finances to their limit, with inflation hitting a peak of above 11%. Today, the OBR says that CPI inflation will average 2.5% this year, 2.6% in 2025, 2.3% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028 and 2.0% in 2029.

Moving on to economic growth, today’s Budget marks an end to short-termism, so I am pleased that, for the first time, the OBR has published not only five-year growth forecasts but a detailed assessment of the growth impacts of our policies over the next decade. The new charter for Budget responsibility, which I am publishing today, confirms that this will become a permanent feature of our framework. The OBR forecasts that real GDP growth will be 1.1% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, 1.5% in 2027, 1.5% in 2028 and 1.6% in 2029. The OBR is clear: this Budget will permanently increase the supply capacity of the economy, boosting long-term growth. [Interruption.] It may sound shocking to Conservative Members, but this Government are boosting long-term economic growth.

Every Budget that I deliver will be focused on our mission to grow the economy, and underpinning that mission are the seven key pillars of our growth strategy, developed and delivered alongside business, and all driven forward by our excellent Financial Secretary to the Treasury. The first and most important is to restore economic stability. That is my focus today. Secondly, increasing investment and building new infrastructure is vital for productivity, so we are catalysing £70 billion of investment through our national wealth fund, and we are transforming our planning rules to get Britain building again. Thirdly, to ensure that all parts of the UK can realise their potential we are working with the devolved Governments and partnering with our mayors to develop local growth plans. Fourthly, to improve employment prospects and skills we are creating Skills England, delivering our plans to make work pay and tackling economic inactivity.

Fifthly, we are launching our long-term modern industrial strategy and expanding opportunities for our small and medium-sized businesses to grow. Sixthly, to drive innovation, we are protecting record funding for research and development to harness the full potential of the UK’s science base. Finally, to maximise the growth benefits of our clean energy mission, we have confirmed key investments, such as carbon capture and storage, to create jobs in our industrial heartlands. Our approach is already having an impact: just two weeks ago, we delivered an international investment summit that saw businesses commit £63.5 billion of investment into our country, creating nearly 40,000 jobs across the United Kingdom. But we cannot undo 14 years of damage in one go. Economic growth will be our mission for the duration of this Parliament.

In our manifesto, we set out the fiscal rules that would guide this Government. I am confirming those today: our stability rule and our investment rule. The stability rule means that we will bring the current Budget into balance so that we do not borrow to fund day-to-day spending. We will meet that rule in 2029-30, until that becomes the third year of the forecast. From then on, we will balance the current Budget in the third year of every Budget, held annually each autumn. That will provide a tougher constraint on day-to-day spending, so that difficult decisions cannot be constantly delayed or deferred. The OBR says that the current Budget will be in deficit by £26.2 billion in 2025-26 and by £5.2 billion in 2026-27, before moving into surplus of £10.9 billion in 2027-28, £9.3 billion in 2028-29 and £9.9 billion in 2029-30, meeting our stability rule two years early.

Monthly public sector finance data show that Government borrowing in the first six months of this year was already running significantly higher than the OBR’s March forecast, and the OBR confirmed today that borrowing in this financial year is now £127 billion, reflecting the inheritance left by the Conservative party. The increase in the net cash requirement in 2024-25 is lower than the increase in borrowing, at £22.3 billion higher than the spring forecast. Because of the action that we are taking, borrowing falls from 4.5% of GDP this year to 2.1% of GDP by the end of the forecast. Public sector net borrowing will be £105.6 billion in 2025-26, £88.5 billion in 2026-27, £72.2 billion in 2027-28, £71.9 billion in 2028-29 and £70.6 billion in 2029-30.

Before I come to tax, it is vital that we are driving efficiency and reducing wasteful spending. In July, to begin dealing with our inheritance, I made £5.5 billion of savings this year. Today we are setting a 2% productivity, efficiency and savings target for all Departments to meet next year by using technology more effectively and joining up services across Government. As set out in our manifesto, I will shortly be appointing our covid corruption commissioner. They will lead our work to uncover those companies that used a national emergency to line their own pockets, because that money belongs in our public services, and taxpayers want it back. I can confirm today that David Goldstone has been appointed chair of the new office for value for money to help us realise the benefits from every pound of public spending.

Today, I am also taking three steps to ensure that welfare spending is more sustainable. First, we inherited the last Government’s plans to reform the work capability assessment. We will deliver those savings as part of our fundamental reforms to the health and disability benefits system that my right hon. Friend the Work and Pensions Secretary will bring forward.

Secondly, I can today announce a crackdown on fraud in our welfare system—often the work of criminal gangs. We will expand the DWP’s counter-fraud teams, using innovative new methods to prevent illegal activity, and provide new legal powers to crack down on fraudsters, including direct access to bank accounts to recover debt. That package saves £4.3 billion a year by the end of the forecast.

Thirdly, the Government will shortly be publishing the “Get Britain Working” White Paper, tackling the root causes of inactivity with an integrated approach across health, education and welfare, and we will provide £240 million for 16 trailblazer projects, targeted at those who are economically inactive and most at risk of being out of education, employment or training, to get people into work and reduce the benefits bill.

Before a Government can consider any change to a tax rate or threshold, they must ensure that people pay what they already owe. We will invest to modernise His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs systems using the very best technology, and recruit additional HMRC compliance and debt staff. We will clamp down on the umbrella companies that exploit workers, increase the interest rate on unpaid tax debt to ensure that people pay on time, and go after the promoters of tax avoidance schemes. Those measures to reduce the tax gap raise £6.5 billion by the end of the forecast, and I thank the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury for his outstanding work on that agenda.

I know that for working people up and down our country, family finances are stretched and pay cheques do not go as far as they once did, so today I am taking steps to support people with the cost of living. It was the Labour Government who introduced the national minimum wage in 1999. That had a transformative impact on the lives of working people. As promised in our manifesto, we asked the Low Pay Commission to take account of the cost of living for the first time. I can confirm that we will accept the commission’s recommendation to increase the national living wage by 6.7% to £12.21 an hour, worth up to £1,400 a year for a full-time worker. And, for the first time, we will move towards a single adult rate, phased in over time by initially increasing the national minimum wage for 18 to 20-year-olds by 16.3%, as recommended by the Low Pay Commission, taking it to £10 an hour—a Labour policy to protect working people, being delivered by a Labour Government once again.

Secondly, I have heard representations from colleagues across this House, including my hon. Friends the Members for Shipley (Anna Dixon) and for Scarborough and Whitby (Alison Hume), and the right hon. Member for Kingston and Surbiton (Ed Davey), about the carer’s allowance and the impact of the current policy on carers who are looking to increase the hours that they work. Carer’s allowance currently provides up to £81.90 per week to help those with additional caring responsibilities. Today, I can confirm that we are increasing the weekly earnings limit to the equivalent of 16 hours at the national living wage per week—the largest increase in the carer’s allowance since it was introduced in 1976. That means that a carer can now earn over £10,000 a year while receiving carer’s allowance, allowing them to increase their hours where they want to, and keep more of their money. I am also concerned about the cliff edge in the current system and the issue of overpayments. My right hon. Friend the Work and Pensions Secretary has announced an independent review to look at the issue of overpayments, and we will work across the House to develop the right solutions.

Thirdly, we will provide £1 billion from next year to extend the household support fund and discretionary housing payments to help those facing financial hardship with the cost of essentials. Fourthly, having heard representations from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, the Trussell Trust and others, I will reduce the level of debt repayments that can be taken from a household’s universal credit payment each month from 25% to 15% of their standard allowance. That means that 1.2 million of the poorest households will keep more of their award each month, lifting children out of poverty, and those who benefit will gain an average of £420 a year.

Our plan to make work pay will also protect working people. I know that Conservative Members are deeply interested in our plans. Having seen their colleagues repeatedly dismissed at short notice, I know that they are worried about their future under the right hon. Member for North West Essex (Mrs Badenoch). They should rest easy knowing that our plan will protect working people from unfair dismissal; it will safeguard them from bullying in the workplace; and it will improve their access to paternity and maternity leave. I hope the new shadow Cabinet will soon be grateful for those increased protections at work.

It is right that we protect those who have worked all their lives. In our manifesto, we promised to transfer the investment reserve fund in the mineworkers’ pension scheme to members. I have listened closely to my hon. Friends the Members for Easington (Grahame Morris), for Doncaster Central (Sally Jameson), for Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney (Nick Smith) and for Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (Elaine Stewart) on this issue. Today, we are keeping our promise, so that working people who powered our country receive the fair pension that they are owed.

Our manifesto committed to the triple lock, meaning that spending on the state pension is forecast to rise by over £31 billion by 2029-30, to ensure our pensioners are protected in their retirement. That commitment means that while working-age benefits will be uprated in line with CPI at 1.7%, the basic and new state pension will be uprated by 4.1% in 2025-26. This means that over 12 million pensioners will gain up to £470 next year, up to £275 more than uprating by inflation. The pension credit standard minimum guarantee will also rise by 4.1%, from around £11,400 per year to around £11,850 a year for a single pensioner.

While I have sought to protect working people with measures to reduce the cost of living, I have had to take some very difficult decisions on tax. I want to set out my approach to fuel duty. Baked into the numbers that I inherited from the previous Government is an assumption that fuel duty will rise in line with the retail prices index next year and that the temporary 5p cut will be reversed. To retain the 5p cut and to freeze fuel duty again would cost over £3 billion next year. At a time when the fiscal position is so difficult, I have to be frank with the House that that is a substantial commitment to make. I have concluded that, in these difficult circumstances, while the cost of living remains high and with a backdrop of global uncertainty, increasing fuel duty next year would be the wrong choice for working people. It would mean fuel duty rising by 7p per litre, so I have decided today to freeze fuel duty next year, and I will maintain the existing 5p cut for another year, too. There will be no higher taxes at the petrol pumps next year.

The last Government made cuts of £20 billion to employees’ and self-employed national insurance in their final two Budgets. Those tax cuts were not honest, because we now know that they were based on a forecast that the OBR says would have been “materially different” had it known the true extent of the last Government’s cover-up. Since July, I have been urged on multiple occasions to reconsider those cuts—to increase the taxes that working people pay and see in their payslips—but I have made an important choice today: to keep every single commitment that we made on tax in our manifesto. I say to working people, I will not increase your national insurance, I will not increase your VAT, and I will not increase your income tax. Working people will not see higher taxes in their payslips as a result of the choices I am making today. That is a promise made and a promise fulfilled.

Any responsible Chancellor would need to make difficult decisions today to raise the revenues required to fund our public services and restore economic stability. So in today’s Budget, I am announcing an increase in employers’ national insurance contributions. We will increase the rate of employers’ national insurance by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April 2025, and we will reduce the secondary threshold—the level at which employers start paying national insurance on each employee’s salary—from £9,100 a year to £5,000. This will raise £25 billion per year by the end of the forecast period. I know that this is a difficult choice; I do not take this decision lightly. We are asking businesses to contribute more, and I know that there will be impacts of this measure felt beyond businesses, too, as the OBR has set out today. [Interruption.]

Order. Our constituents are watching—they need to be able to hear the Chancellor. Simmer down.

In the circumstances I have inherited, it is the right choice to make. Successful businesses depend on successful schools, healthy businesses depend on a healthy NHS, and a strong economy depends on strong public finances. If the Conservative party chooses to oppose this choice, it is choosing more austerity, more chaos and more instability. That is the choice our country faces, too.

As I make this choice, I know it is particularly important to protect our smallest companies. Having heard representations from the Federation of Small Businesses and others, I am today increasing the employment allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that 865,000 employers will not pay any national insurance at all next year, and over 1 million will pay the same or less than they did previously. This will allow a small business to employ the equivalent of four full-time workers on the national living wage without paying any national insurance on their wages.

Let me now come to capital gains tax. We need to drive growth, promote entrepreneurship and support wealth creation while raising the revenue required to fund our public services and restore our public finances. Today, we will increase the lower rate of capital gains tax from 10% to 18% and the higher rate from 20% to 24%, while maintaining the rates of capital gains tax on residential property at 18% and 24%. This means that the UK will still have the lowest capital gains tax rate of any European G7 economy.

Alongside these changes to the headline rates of capital gains tax, we are maintaining the lifetime limit for business asset disposal relief at £1 million to encourage entrepreneurs to invest in their businesses. Business asset disposal relief will remain at 10% this year before rising to 14% in April 2025 and to 18% from 2026-27, maintaining a significant gap compared with the higher rate of capital gains tax. Together, the OBR says that these measures will raise £2.5 billion by the end of the forecast.

In a sign of this Government’s commitment to supporting growth and entrepreneurship, we have already extended the enterprise investment and venture capital trust schemes to 2035, and we will continue to work with leading entrepreneurs and venture capital firms to ensure that our policies support a positive environment for entrepreneurship in the UK.

Next, I turn to inheritance tax. Only 6% of estates will pay inheritance tax this year. I understand the strongly held desire to pass down savings to children and grandchildren, so I am taking a balanced approach in my package today. First, the previous Government froze inheritance tax thresholds until 2028. I will extend that freeze for a further two years, until 2030. That means that the first £325,000 of any estate can be inherited tax-free, rising to £500,000 if the estate includes a residence passed to direct descendants and £1 million when a tax-free allowance is passed to a surviving spouse or civil partner.

Secondly, we will close the loophole created by the previous Government, made even bigger when the lifetime allowance was abolished, by bringing inherited pensions into inheritance tax from April 2027. Finally, we will reform agricultural property relief and business property relief. From April 2026, the first £1 million of combined business and agricultural assets will continue to attract no inheritance tax at all, but for assets over £1 million, inheritance tax will apply with a 50% relief at an effective rate of 20%. This will ensure that we continue to protect small family farms, with three quarters of claims unaffected by these changes.

I can also announce that we will apply a 50% relief in all circumstances on inheritance tax for shares on the alternative investment market and other similar markets, setting the effective rate of tax at 20%. Taken together, these measures raise over £2 billion by the final year of the forecast.

Next, I can confirm that the Government will renew the tobacco duty escalator for the remainder of this Parliament at RPI+2%, increase duty by a further 10% on hand-rolling tobacco this year, and introduce a flat-rate duty on all vaping liquid from October 2026, alongside an additional one-off increase in tobacco duty to maintain the incentive to give up smoking. We will increase the soft drinks industry levy to account for inflation since it was introduced, as well as increasing the duty in line with CPI each year going forward. These measures will raise nearly £1 billion per year by the end of the forecast period.

We want to support the take-up of electric vehicles, so I will maintain the incentives for electric vehicles in company car tax from 2028 and increase the differential between fully electric and other vehicles in the first-year rates of vehicle excise duty from April 2025. These measures will raise around £400 million by the end of the forecast period.

Let me update the House on our plans for air passenger duty—and I can see the Leader of the Opposition’s ears have pricked up. Air passenger duty has not kept up with inflation in recent years, so we are introducing an adjustment, meaning an increase of no more than £2 for an economy class short-haul flight. But I am taking a different approach when it comes to private jets, increasing the rate of air passenger duty by a further 50%. That is equivalent to £450 per passenger for a private jet to, say, California. [Laughter.]

Let us now turn to our high street businesses. I know that, for them, a major source of concern is business rates. From 2026-27, we intend to introduce two permanently lower tax rates for retail, hospitality and leisure properties, which make up the backbone of our high streets across the country, and it is our intention that it is paid for by a higher multiplier for the most valuable properties. The previous Government created a cliff edge next year, as temporary reliefs end, so I will today provide 40% relief on business rates for the retail, hospitality and leisure industry in 2025-26 up to a cap of £110,000 per business. Alongside this, the small business tax multiplier will be frozen next year.

Next, I can confirm that alcohol duty rates on non-draught products will increase in line with RPI from February next year. However, nearly two thirds of alcoholic drinks sold in pubs are served on draught, so today, instead of uprating these products in line with inflation, I am cutting draught duty by 1.7%—[Hon. Members: “Hear, hear!”]—which means a penny off the pint in the pub.

Alongside the changes I am making today, I am publishing a corporate tax road map, providing the business certainty called for by the CBI, the British Chambers of Commerce and the Institute of Directors. This confirms our commitment to cap the rate of corporation tax at 25%—the lowest in the G7—for the duration of this Parliament, while maintaining full expensing and the £1 million annual investment allowance, and keeping the current rates of research and development relief to drive innovation.

In our manifesto, we made a number of commitments to raising funding for our public services. First, I have always said that if you make Britain your home, you should pay your taxes here, too, so today I can confirm that we will abolish the non-dom tax regime, and we will remove the outdated concept of domicile from the tax system from April 2025. We will introduce a new, residence-based scheme, with internationally competitive arrangements for those coming to the UK on a temporary basis, while closing the loopholes in the scheme designed by the Conservative party. To further encourage investment into the UK, we will extend the temporary repatriation relief to three years and expand its scope, bringing billions of pounds of new funds into Britain. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility says that this package of measures will raise £12.7 billion over the next five years.

The fund management industry provides a vital contribution to our economy, but as our manifesto set out, there needs to be a fairer approach to the way that carried interest is taxed, so we will increase the capital gains rates on carried interest to 32% from April 2025, and from April 2026 we will deliver further reform to ensure that the specific rules for carried interest are simpler, fairer and better targeted.

In our manifesto, we committed to reforming stamp duty land tax to raise revenues, while supporting those buying their first home. We are increasing the stamp duty land tax surcharge for second homes, known as the higher rate for additional dwellings, by 2 percentage points to 5%, which will come into effect from tomorrow. This will support over 130,000 additional transactions from people buying their first home or moving home over the next five years.

Next, we are committed to reforming the energy profits levy on oil and gas companies. I can confirm today that we will increase the rate of the levy to 38%. The levy will now expire in March 2030, and we will remove the 29% investment allowance. To ensure that the oil and gas industry can protect jobs and support our energy security, we will maintain the 100% first-year allowances, and the decarbonisation allowances, too.

Finally, 94% of children in the UK attend state schools. To provide the highest-quality support and teaching that they deserve, we will introduce VAT on private school fees from January 2025, and we will shortly introduce legislation to remove their business rates relief from April 2025, too.

We said in our manifesto that these changes, alongside our measures to tackle tax avoidance, would bring in £8.5 billion in the final year of the forecast. I can confirm today that they will in fact raise over £9 billion to support our public services and restore our public finances. That is a promise made and a promise fulfilled.

I have one final decision to announce on tax today. The previous Government froze income tax and national insurance thresholds in 2021, and then did so again after the mini-Budget. Extending their threshold freeze for a further two years raises billions of pounds—money to deal with the black hole in our public finances and repair our public services. Having considered the issue closely, I have come to the conclusion that extending the threshold freeze would hurt working people. It would take more money out of their payslips. I am keeping every single promise on tax that I made in our manifesto, so there will be no extension of the freeze in income tax and national insurance thresholds beyond the decisions made by the previous Government. From 2028-29, personal tax thresholds will be uprated in line with inflation once again. When it comes to choices on tax, this Government choose to protect working people every single time.

Those are the choices I have made to restore economic stability and protect working people. My next choice is to begin to repair our public services. In recent months, we conducted the first phase of the spending review to set departmental budgets for 2024-25 and 2025-26. I thank my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary to the Treasury for his tireless work with colleagues from across Government. Because I have taken difficult decisions on tax today, I am able to provide an injection of immediate funding over the next two years to stabilise and support our public services.

The next phase of the spending review will report in late spring, and I have set out the overall envelope today. Day-to-day spending from 2024-25 onwards will grow by 1.5% in real terms, and today departmental spending, including capital spending, will grow by 1.7% in real terms. At the election, we promised that there would be no return to austerity, and today we deliver on that promise, but given the scale of the challenge that we face in our public services, there will still be difficult choices in the next phase of the spending review. Just as we cannot tax and spend our way to prosperity, neither can we simply spend our way to better public services. We will deliver a new approach to public service reform, using technology to improve public services and taking a zero-based approach, so that taxpayers’ money is spent as effectively as possible, and so that we focus on delivering our key priorities.

In the first phase of the spending review, I have prioritised day-to-day funding to deliver on our manifesto commitments. I want every child to have the very best start in life, and the best possible start to their school day. I know that my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Education shares my ambition, so today I am tripling investment in breakfast clubs to fund them in thousands of schools. I am increasing the core schools budget by £2.3 billion next year to support our pledge to hire thousands more teachers in key subjects. So that our young people can develop the skills that they need for the future, I am providing an additional £300 million for further education. Finally, this Government are committed to reforming special educational needs provision, to improve outcomes for our most vulnerable children and ensure that the system is financially sustainable. To support that work, I am today providing a £1 billion uplift in funding—a 6% real-terms increase from this year.

There is no more important job for Government than keeping our country safe, and we are conducting a strategic defence review, to be published next year. As set out in our manifesto, we will set a path to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence at a future fiscal event. Today, I am announcing a total increase in the Ministry of Defence’s budget of £2.9 billion next year, ensuring that the UK comfortably exceeds our NATO commitments, and providing guaranteed military support to Ukraine of £3 billion per year for as long as it takes. Last week, alongside my right hon. Friend the Defence Secretary, I announced, in addition to that, further support for Ukraine, on top of our NATO commitment. That support comes through our £2.26 billion contribution to the G7’s extraordinary revenue acceleration agreement. That will be repaid using profits from immobilised Russian sovereign assets.

As we approach Remembrance Sunday, it is vital that we take time to remember those who have served our country so bravely. I am today announcing funding to commemorate the 80th anniversary of VE and VJ Day next year, to honour those who served at home and abroad. We must also remember those who experienced the atrocities of the Nazi regime at first hand. I would like to pay tribute to Lily Ebert, the Holocaust survivor and educator who passed away aged 100 earlier this month. I am today committing a further £2 million for Holocaust education next year, so that charities such as the Holocaust Educational Trust can continue their work to ensure that those vital testimonies are not lost, and are preserved for the future.

To repair our public services, we need to work alongside our mayors and local leaders. We will deliver a significant, real-terms funding increase for local government next year, including £1.3 billion of additional grant funding to deliver essential services, with at least £600 million in grant funding for social care and £230 million to tackle homelessness and rough sleeping. We are today confirming that Greater Manchester and the West Midlands will be the first mayoral authorities to receive integrated settlements from next year, giving mayors meaningful control of funding for their local areas. To support our high streets, we are taking action to deal with the sharp rise in shoplifting that we have seen in recent years. We will scrap the effective immunity for low-value shoplifting introduced by the Conservative party, and having listened closely to organisations such as the British Retail Consortium and the trade union USDAW, I am providing additional funding to crack down on the organised gangs that target retailers, and to provide more training for our police officers and retailers, in order to stop shoplifting in its tracks.

Finally, I am today providing funding to support public services and drive growth across Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Having discussed the matter with the First Minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan, my hon. Friend the Under-Secretary of State for Wales (Dame Nia Griffith), and my hon. Friend the Under-Secretary of State for Justice (Alex Davies-Jones), I am today providing £25 million to the Welsh Government next year for the maintenance of coal tips, to ensure that we keep our communities safe. To support growth, including in our rural areas, we will proceed with city and growth deals in Northern Ireland, in Causeway Coast and Glens, and the Mid South West. We will drive growth in Scotland, which is a key priority for Scottish Labour and our leader, Anas Sarwar, including through a city and growth deal in Argyll and Bute.

This Budget provides the devolved Governments with the largest real-terms funding settlement since devolution, delivering an additional £3.4 billion to the Scottish Government through the Barnett formula—funding that must now be used effectively in Scotland to deliver the public services that the people of Scotland deserve. This Budget also provides £1.7 billion to the Welsh Government, and £1.5 billion to the Northern Ireland Executive in 2025-26. I said there would be no return to austerity; that is the choice I have made today.

To rebuild our country, we need to increase investment. The UK lags behind every other G7 country when it comes to business investment as a share of our economy. That matters. It means that the UK has fallen behind in the race for new jobs, new industries, and new technology. By restoring economic stability, and by establishing the national wealth fund to catalyse private funding, we have begun to create the conditions that businesses need to invest, but there is also a significant role for public investment. For too long, we have seen Conservative Chancellors cut investment and raid capital budgets to plug gaps in day-to-day spending. The result is clear for all to see: hospitals without the equipment they need; school buildings not fit for our children; a desperate lack of affordable housing; and economic growth held back at every turn. Under the plans I inherited, public investment was set to fall from 2.5% to 1.7% of GDP, but in Washington last week, the International Monetary Fund was clear: more public investment is badly needed in the UK.

Having listened to the case made by the former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, the former Treasury Minister, Jim O’Neill and the former Cabinet Secretary, Gus O’Donnell, among others, I am confirming our investment rule. As was set out in our manifesto, we will target debt falling as a share of the economy. Debt will be defined as public sector net financial liabilities—or net financial debt, for short. That metric has been measured by the Office for National Statistics since 2016 and forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility since that date, too.

Net financial debt recognises that Government investment delivers returns for taxpayers by counting not just the liabilities on a Government’s balance sheet, but the financial assets, too. That means we count the benefits of that investment, not just the costs, and we free up our institutions to invest, just as they do in Germany, France and Japan. Like our stability rule, our investment rule will apply in 2029-30, until that becomes the third year of the forecast. From that point onwards, net financial debt will fall in the third year of every forecast. Today, the OBR says that we are already meeting our target two years early, with net financial debt falling by 2027-28 and £15.7 billion of headroom in the final year.

So that we drive the right incentives in Government investments, we will introduce four key guardrails to ensure capital spending is good value for money and drives growth in our economy. First, our portfolio of new financial investments will be delivered by expert bodies, such as the national wealth fund, and must by default earn a rate of return at least as large as that on gilts. Secondly, we will strengthen the role of institutions to improve infrastructure delivery. Thirdly, we will improve certainty, setting capital budgets for five years and extending them at spending reviews every two years. Finally, we will ensure greater transparency for capital spending, with robust annual reporting of financial investments based on accounts audited by the National Audit Office and made available to the Office for Budget Responsibility at every forecast. Taken together with our stability rule, these fiscal rules will ensure that our public finances are on a firm footing, while enabling us to invest prudently alongside business.

The capital plans I now set out to drive growth across our country and repair the fabric of our nation are possible only because of our investment rule. Let me set out those investment plans. Today, we are confirming our plans to capitalise the national wealth fund to invest in the industries of the future, from gigafactories to ports to green hydrogen. Building on those investments, my right hon. Friend the Business Secretary is driving forward our modern industrial strategy, working with businesses and organisations such as Make UK to set out the sectors with the biggest growth potential. Today, we are confirming multi-year funding commitments for these areas of our economy, including nearly £1 billion for the aerospace sector to fund vital research and development, building on our industry in the east midlands, the south-west and Scotland; more than £2 billion for the automotive sector to support our electric vehicle industry and develop our manufacturing base, building on our strengths in the north-east and the west midlands; and up to £520 million for a new life sciences innovative manufacturing fund.

For our world-leading creative industries, we will legislate to provide additional tax relief for visual effect costs in TV and film, and we are providing £25 million for the North East combined authority, which it plans to use to remediate the Crown Works Studios site in Sunderland, creating 8,000 new jobs.

To unlock these growth industries of the future, we will protect Government investment in research and development, with more than £20 billion-worth of funding. This includes at least £6.1 billion to protect core research funding for areas such as engineering, biotechnology and medical science through Research England, other research councils and the national academies. We will extend the innovation accelerators programme in Glasgow, Manchester and the west midlands. With more than £500 million of funding next year, my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology will continue to drive progress in improving reliable, fast broadband and mobile coverage across our country, including in rural areas.

We committed in our manifesto to build 1.5 million homes over the course of this Parliament, and my right hon. Friend the Deputy Prime Minister is driving that work forward across government. Today, I am providing more than £5 billion of Government investment to deliver our plans on housing next year. We will increase the affordable homes programme to £3.1 billion, delivering thousands of new homes. We will provide £3 billion-worth of support in guarantees to boost the supply of homes and support our small house builders. We will provide investment to renovate sites across our country, including at Liverpool Central Docks, where we will deliver 2,000 new homes, and funding to help Cambridge realise its full growth potential.

Alongside this investment, we will put the right policies in place to increase the supply of affordable housing. Having heard representations from local authorities, social housing providers and Shelter, I can today confirm that the Government will reduce right-to-buy discounts and that local authorities will be able to retain the full receipts from any sales of social housing, so that we can reinvest them back into housing stock and into new supply. By doing that, we will give more people a safe, secure and affordable place to live.

We will provide stability to social housing providers with a social housing rent settlement of CPI plus 1% for the next five years, and we will deliver on our manifesto commitment to hire hundreds of new planning officers to get Britain building again. We will also make progress on our commitment to accelerate the remediation of homes, following the findings of the Grenfell inquiry, with £1 billion of investment to remove dangerous cladding next year.

The last Government made a number of promises on transport, but failed to fund them. Working with my right hon. Friend the Transport Secretary, I am changing that. We are today securing the delivery of the trans-Pennine upgrade to connect York, Leeds, Huddersfield and Manchester, delivering fully electric local and regional services between Manchester and Stalybridge by the end of this year, with a further electrification of services between Church Fenton and York by 2026, to help grow our economy across the north of England with faster and more reliable services.

We will deliver East West Rail to drive growth between Oxford, Milton Keynes and Cambridge, with the first services running between Oxford, Bletchley and Milton Keynes next year, and trains between Oxford and Bedford running from 2030. We are delivering railway schemes that improve journeys for people across our country, including upgrades at Bradford Forster Square station, improving capacity at Manchester Victoria and electrifying the Wigan to Bolton line.

My right hon. Friend the Transport Secretary has also set out a plan for how to get a grip of HS2. Today, we are securing delivery of the project between Old Oak Common and Birmingham, and we are committing the funding required to begin tunnelling work to London Euston station. That will catalyse private investment into the local area, delivering jobs and growth.

I am also funding significant improvements to our road network. For too long, potholes have been an all-too-visible reminder of our failure to invest as a nation. Today that changes, with a £500 million increase in road maintenance budgets next year—more than delivering on our manifesto commitment to fix an additional 1 million potholes each year. We will provide over £650 million of local transport funding to improve connections across our country, in towns such as Crewe and Grimsby and in our villages and rural areas from Cornwall to Cumbria. While the previous Government’s policy was for the bus fare cap to end this December, we understand how important bus services are for our communities, so we will extend the cap for a further year, setting it at £3 until December 2025. Finally, we will deliver £1.3 billion of funding to improve connectivity in our city regions, funding projects such as the Brierley Hill metro extension in the west midlands, the renewal of the Sheffield Supertram, and West Yorkshire mass transit, including in Bradford and Leeds.

To bring new jobs to Britain and drive growth across our country, we are delivering our mission to make Britain a clean energy superpower, led by my right hon. Friend the Energy Secretary. Earlier this month, we announced a significant multi-year investment between Government and business in carbon capture and storage, creating 4,000 jobs across Merseyside and Teesside. Today, I am providing funding for 11 new green hydrogen projects across England, Scotland and Wales—they will be among the first commercial-scale projects anywhere in the world—including in Bridgend, East Renfrewshire and Barrow-in-Furness. We are kick-starting the warm homes plan by confirming an initial £3.4 billion over the next three years to transform 350,000 homes, including a quarter of a million low-income and social homes, and we will establish GB Energy, providing funding next year to set it up at its new home in Aberdeen.

Overall, we will invest an additional £100 billion over the next five years in capital spending—that is possible only because of our investment rule. The OBR says today that this investment will drive growth across our country in the next five years and, in the longer term, increase GDP by up to 1.4%. It will crowd in private investment, meaning more jobs and more opportunities in every corner of the UK. That is the choice that I have made: to invest in our country and to grow our economy.

Today, I am setting out two final areas in which investment is so badly needed to repair the fabric of our nation. My hon. Friend the Member for Lewisham West and East Dulwich (Ellie Reeves) and I joined the Labour party because of the condition of our schools in the 1980s and 1990s under Conservative Governments. When we were at secondary school, my sixth form was a couple of prefab huts in the playground. My school, like so many others, was rebuilt by the last Labour Government, but after 14 years of Tory government, progress has gone backwards: school roofs are crumbling and millions of children are facing the same backdrop as I did. I will be the Chancellor who changes that.

Today, I am providing £6.7 billion of capital investment to the Department for Education next year—a 19% real-terms increase on this year. That includes £1.4 billion to rebuild over 500 schools in the greatest need, including St Helen’s primary school in Hartlepool, Mercia academy in Derby and so many more across our country. We will provide £2.1 billion more to improve school maintenance—£300 million more than this year—ensuring that all our children can learn somewhere safe. That will include dealing with reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete-affected schools in the constituencies of my hon. Friends the Members for Watford (Matt Turmaine), for Stourbridge (Cat Eccles) and for Hyndburn (Sarah Smith) and beyond, alongside investment in new teachers and funding for thousands of new breakfast clubs. This Government are giving our children and young people the opportunities that they deserve.

I come to our most cherished public service of all: our NHS. My right hon. Friend the Health Secretary is beginning to repair the damage of the last 14 years. In our first week in office, he commissioned an independent report into the state of our health service by Lord Darzi. Its conclusions were damning. While our NHS staff do a remarkable job, and we thank them for it, it is clear that in so many areas we are moving in the wrong direction. A hundred thousand infants waited over six hours in A&E last year. Three hundred and fifty thousand people are waiting a year for mental health support. Cancer deaths here are higher than in other countries. It is simply unforgiveable.

In the spring, we will publish a 10-year plan for the NHS to deliver a shift from hospital to community, from analogue to digital and from sickness to prevention. Today, we are announcing a down payment on that plan to enable the NHS to deliver 2% productivity growth next year. These reforms are vital, but we should be honest: the state of the NHS that we inherited after—I quote Lord Darzi—

“the most austere decade since the NHS was founded”

means that reform must come alongside investment. So today, because of the difficult decisions that I have taken on tax, welfare and spending, I can announce that I am providing a £22.6 billion increase in the day-to-day health budget and a £3.1 billion increase in the capital budget over this year and next. This is the largest real-terms growth in day-to-day NHS spending outside of covid since 2010.

Let me set out what this funding is delivering. Many NHS buildings have been left in a state of disrepair, so we will provide £1 billion of health capital investment next year to address the backlog of repairs and upgrades across our NHS. To increase capacity for tens of thousands more procedures next year, we will provide a further £1.5 billion for new beds in hospitals across our country, new capacity for over a million additional diagnostic tests, and new surgical hubs and diagnostic centres so that people waiting for their treatment can get it as quickly as possible.

My right hon. Friend the Health Secretary will be setting out further details of his review into the new hospital programme in the coming weeks and publishing in the new year, but I can tell the House today that work will continue at pace to deliver those seven hospitals affected by the RAAC crisis, including West Suffolk hospital in Bury St Edmunds and Leighton hospital in Crewe. And finally, because of this record injection of funding, the thousands of additional beds that we have secured and the reforms that we are delivering in our NHS, we can now begin to bring waiting lists down more quickly and move towards our target for waiting times to be no longer than 18 weeks by delivering on our manifesto commitment for 40,000 extra hospital appointments a week. That is the difference that this Labour Government are making.

The choices I have made today are the right choices for our country—to restore stability to our public finances, to protect working people, to fix our NHS and to rebuild Britain. That does not mean these choices are easy, but they are responsible. If the Conservatives disagree with the choices that I have made, they must answer: what choices would they make? Would they again choose the path of irresponsibility—the path taken by Liz Truss—and ignore the problems in our public finances all together? If that is their choice, they should say so. But let me be clear: if they disagree with my choices on tax, they would not be able to protect working people. If they disagree with our plans to fund public services, they would have to cut schools and hospitals. If they disagree with our investment rule, they would have to delay or cancel thousands of projects that drive growth across our country.

This is a moment of fundamental choice for Britain. I have made my choices—the responsible choices—to restore stability to our country and to protect working people. More teachers in our schools, more appointments in our NHS, more homes being built, fixing the foundations of our economy, investing in our future, delivering change and rebuilding Britain. We on the Government Benches commend those choices, and I commend this statement to the House.

Provisional Collection of Taxes

Motion made, and Question put forthwith (Standing Order No. 51(2)),

That, pursuant to section 5 of the Provisional Collection of Taxes Act 1968, provisional statutory effect shall be given to the following motions:—

(a) Value added tax (private school fees) (motion no. 34);

(b) Stamp duty land tax (additional dwellings: purchases before 1 April 2025) (motion no. 35);

(c) Stamp duty land tax (purchases by companies) (motion no. 37);

(d) Rates of tobacco products duty (motion no. 46).—(Rachel Reeves.)

Question agreed to.

We come now to the motion entitled “Income Tax (Charge)”. It is on this motion that the debate will take place today and on the succeeding days. The questions on this motion and the remaining motions will be put at the end of the Budget debate on Wednesday 6 November.

I call the Leader of the Opposition.

On the day that the Prime Minister took office, he said that he wanted to restore trust to British politics with action, not words. Today, his actions speak for themselves, with a Budget that contains broken promise after broken promise and reveals the simple truth that the Prime Minister and the Chancellor have not been straight with the British people. Time and again, we Conservatives warned that a Labour Government would tax, borrow and spend far beyond what they were telling the country, and time and again they denied they had such plans. Today, the truth has come out—proof that Labour planned to do this all along. Today’s Budget sees the fiscal rules fiddled, borrowing increased by billions of pounds, inflation-busting handouts for the trade unions—[Interruption.]

Order. Just as we respected the Chancellor and heard her speak, we will hear the Leader of the Opposition.

Britain’s poorest pensioners squeezed, welfare spending out of control and a spree of tax rises that the Government promised the working people of this country they would not do. National insurance—up. Capital gains tax—up. Inheritance tax—up. Energy taxes —up. Business rates—up. First time buyer’s stamp duty—up. Pensions tax—up. They have fiddled the figures. [Interruption.]

Order. The public will also want to hear what the Leader of the Opposition has to say. Those who I see shouting will not be called to speak later on. Simmer.

Labour Members do not like it, but this is the truth: they have fiddled the figures and raised tax to record levels. They have broken their promises, and it is the working people of this country who will pay the price.

The Chancellor and Prime Minister have tried to say that they had no choice, but let us be in no doubt: their misleading claims about the state of the economy are nothing but a cynical political device. Today’s situation is a world away from the genuinely bleak legacy that we Conservatives inherited from the last Labour Government. The Chancellor forgot to point out that borrowing was £1 in every £4 that they spent, with debt rising every year and unemployment at 8%. I understand the Chancellor’s shameless political motivations and why it suits her to cook up a false justification for her agenda, but today, the OBR has declined to back up her claims of a fictional £22 billion black hole. It appears nowhere in its report. It is deeply disappointing that she has sought to politicise the independent OBR, which should be above party politics.

As the Chancellor now knows, her playing politics has done real damage to our economy. She talked about being a Bank of England economist, but the Bank of England’s former chief economist has said that Labour’s approach has generated fear, foreboding and uncertainty among consumers, businesses and investors. The rhetoric of this Chancellor and this Prime Minister is damaging the British economy for political purposes.

We need only to look at the facts to see that the Chancellor’s claims about her economic inheritance are nonsense. Labour inherited an economy with inflation back at its 2% target, mortgage rates cut and unemployment low. When we left office, the United Kingdom was the fastest growing advanced economy in the world. When it comes to the public finances, not once has the Chancellor acknowledged that we took the right decision to spend half a trillion pounds to protect the British people from the impact of covid and Putin’s war. Let me remind the House that not only did the Labour party support all those interventions, it wanted us to go even further. When I made the tough choices to fix the public finances afterwards, the Prime Minister and Chancellor opportunistically opposed me every step of the way, so I will take no lectures from those two about difficult decisions. But because of the decisions we made, the Chancellor inherited lower borrowing than France, America, Italy and Japan, and the second-lowest debt in the entire G7. Any which way you look at it, Labour’s claims about its inheritance are purely ludicrous. These are her choices, so stop blaming everyone else and take responsibility for them. [Interruption.]

Let me turn to the substance of those choices. During the election, the Chancellor repeatedly promised that her plans were fully funded. Only a few weeks ago, the Prime Minister said the Budget would “balance the books”, but this Budget does no such thing and reveals that they have not been straight with the British people. [Interruption.]

Order. I can see you even when you are hiding behind another colleague. Yelling across the Chamber is not on. The public—our constituents—are watching. I know emotions are high and I expect some noise, but I will definitely call you out.

Today, the Chancellor has launched an enormous borrowing spree, saddling our children and grandchildren with billions upon billions of pounds of more debt, pushing up interest rates, leaving our economy more exposed to future shocks and leading the OBR today to now forecast higher inflation in every year of the forecast. Her decision to let borrowing rip makes a total nonsense of her claims on the state of the public finances. If they truly were in such a dire state, as she has said, what we should have seen today is a significant reduction in borrowing to repair them, not the splurge she has just unleashed. Instead, what we see is borrowing higher in every year of the forecast and debt higher in every year of the forecast.

Now, the Chancellor has tried to cover up that splurge by fiddling the fiscal rules. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the new measure will not actually even be a constraint on the amount she can borrow. It says it is:

“hard to escape the suspicion”

that the Government are attracted to this change

“by the fact that it would allow for significantly more borrowing…without any need for tough choices elsewhere.”

“Fiscal fiddling” is what it has called it. The Chancellor herself actually agrees. She specifically told the British people she would not change the debt target. She said she was

“not going to fiddle the figures”

to get better results, but that is exactly what she has done. She has gone back on her word and fiddled the figures so she can borrow billions more—broken promise after broken promise, and working people will pay the price.

The reason the Chancellor has increased borrowing and increased taxes is because she has totally failed to grip public spending. First, she has no meaningful plan to deliver the £20 billion-worth of savings available if the public sector simply returned to its pre-pandemic levels of productivity. Instead, one of the first things the Chancellor did was to hand out inflation-busting pay rises to the unions without getting any productivity-enhancing reforms in return. The Chancellor also scrapped her predecessor’s plan to get the civil service back to its pre-pandemic numbers. She does not seem to think that the civil service can be reduced by a single person.

And the Chancellor has no plan to control welfare spending. Yet if we simply got working age welfare spending on people with a disability or health condition back to pre-covid levels, that would free up £30 billion-worth of savings. Whether it is scrapping our plans to shrink the civil service or their failure to control welfare spending, this is not her inheritance, these are her choices. The result: higher spending, higher borrowing, higher taxes. It is broken promise after broken promise, and working people paying the price.

Let me turn next to growth, and remind the Prime Minister and Chancellor that they did, in fact, inherit the fastest-growing economy in the G7. That is testament to the last Government boosting investment by introducing full expensing, increasing the labour supply by expanding childcare, reforming welfare and cutting tax on work—all decisions the OBR said would increase growth. The Chancellor has said that growing the economy is the Government’s No. 1 priority. The Prime Minister even said that higher growth would come “very quickly”.

To be fair, the Prime Minister and Chancellor have had a rapid impact on growth. As their plans for the economy became clear, survey after survey showed business confidence plummeting. No wonder the Government’s own assessment says their French-style labour laws will impose a £5 billion—[Interruption.] Labour Members will be explaining it to the businesses in their constituencies that their labour laws, by their own assessment, will impose a £5 billion direct cost on business, disproportionately hitting smaller businesses. As business group after business group has pointed out, the tax rises on jobs and enterprise in today’s Budget will “hobble growth”—a “poll tax on business” is what they have called it. Despite the record-breaking tax rises, despite fiddling the figures and despite letting borrowing soar, today the OBR has forecast that growth will be lower under this Government than it was forecast to be under the Conservatives. That is the change they have wrought.

This is what happens when the Labour party is led by people who have no experience of business and enterprise: relentlessly talking down our economy, delivering a tidal wave of anti-business regulations, destroying our flexible labour market and raising taxes to the highest level in our country’s history. It is the classic Labour agenda: higher taxes, higher borrowing, no plan for growth, and working people paying the price.

During the election campaign, the Prime Minister specifically said there would be no tax surprises under Labour. The Chancellor went even further, saying she wanted to bring taxes down. Each time they made those promises, we warned that they were not telling the truth. Today, the Chancellor and Prime Minister have done what they were always planning to do, but chose to keep hidden from the British people. Far from reducing taxes, as a result of today’s Budget never in the history of our country have taxes been higher than they are under this Labour Government. They specifically promised that they would not raise tax on working people. The Chancellor said:

“Labour will not put up your income tax, national insurance or VAT.”

Just this month, the Prime Minister gave an “absolute commitment” to not raising tax on working people. What does today’s Budget do? It raises tax on working people by increasing national insurance and breaking Labour’s promise.

As the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies has said, this is a straightforward breach of Labour’s manifesto, because, as the Office for Budget Responsibility has made clear, this tax rise is “passed through entirely” to working people. Even since the Chancellor started speaking, the IFS has already confirmed that the vast majority of this tax increase will hit working people through lower pay. However, we do not need to take it from the IFS or even the OBR; we can take it from the Chancellor herself. She has previously described her tax rise as a “jobs tax” which

“takes money out of people’s pockets”.—[Official Report, 19 October 2021; Vol. 701, c. 675.]

And not only that—the Chancellor also said that the problem with national insurance

“is that it is a tax purely on people who go to work and those who employ them”.

Far from protecting working people, she is literally raising the only major tax that exclusively hits working people.

But it does not stop there. Businesses on the British high street: your taxes are going up. Businesses investing in British energy: your taxes are going up. The small business owner looking to reap the rewards of years spent growing a business and creating jobs: your taxes are going up. The young couple saving to buy their first home: your taxes are going up. The family—[Interruption.]

Order. Mr Streeting, you promised me this morning. Let us try and keep our promises.

I am sure that those on the Government Front Bench were wanting to explain to the young couple in their constituencies saving to buy their first home that their taxes are going up, and to the family wanting to pass on their farm or their business to their children that their taxes are going up. The parents sacrificing to give their kids the best start in life: your taxes are going up. They are taxing your job, they are taxing your business, they are taxing your home, they are taxing your savings. I said during the election campaign:

“You name it, Labour will tax it”,

And that is exactly what the Government have done, with broken promise after broken promise and working people paying the price.

For the final time from this Dispatch Box, let me deliver some basic truths. A Government can foster growth, but they cannot magically conjure it up. We need businesses, workers, investors and entrepreneurs to all back this country and build our economy. It does not matter whether your income comes in a pay packet, from investments, in dividends or in profits. It is a poor politics that is so focused on what people receive that it fails to see that what matters is what people put in. The only way to grow the economy and to create wealth is for people to put in more, so when you create a negative environment for business, when you undermine confidence in our country, when you vilify and penalise people for doing exactly what we need them to do, which is to invest, take risks and work hard, you do not create growth; you hold back growth—and more than that, the promise of growth tomorrow does not pay the bills today. This is not the first Government to peddle the “borrow to grow” myth, but time and again we have seen the same ending: not higher growth, but higher debt, higher inflation, and higher taxes.

But, Madam Deputy Speaker, whatever you think about the economic arguments surrounding today’s Budget, there is a more fundamental point with which I want to conclude. The Prime Minister has talked relentlessly about trust, yet today’s Budget reveals above all that those in the Labour party did not tell the truth. They said they would not fiddle the figures; they have. They said they would not increase borrowing; they have. They said they would not raise taxes on working people; they have. There has been broken promise after broken promise, and it is the working people of this country who will pay the price.

On a point of order, Madam Deputy Speaker.

It had better be a genuine, relevant point of order.

I wonder if you could give me some advice, Madam Deputy Speaker, because I fear that the Chancellor may have inadvertently failed to declare an interest. She spoke a great deal about working people during her speech. Is she a working person, and should she declare that? Or maybe she isn’t.

That was not a relevant point of order, and it will be noted in case the hon. Gentleman wishes to put forward any further points of order. I now call the Chair of the Treasury Committee.

Before I begin, I must—as well as drawing the House’s attention to my entry in the Register of Members’ Financial Interests—draw its attention to the fact that I have a family member who works for Allied Irish Bank.

I have been looking forward to today. I feel honoured to have been chosen by this House, on a cross-party basis, to chair the Treasury Committee, and to be the first Labour Treasury Committee Chair to welcome the Budget of a Labour Government and our first female Labour Chancellor. I thought that, after a 14-year wait, this would be an exciting moment; and in a moment of sentimentality, realising that for the second time today I would be following the right hon. Member for Richmond and Northallerton (Rishi Sunak), I was going to reflect on an interesting constitutional position. When I was in my former role as Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, there was common ground at times with the Prime Minister of the day. In private, when I had cause to meet the right hon. Gentleman, he was courteous, thoughtful and respectful, had the national interest at heart, and, when it came to constitutional matters, was in very much the same place as me. I was therefore very disappointed today by the cheek of the right hon. Gentleman in standing up and having the chutzpah to talk about fear, foreboding and uncertainty.

It was the 2022 mini-Budget that plunged the country into crisis, put up the mortgage rates of our constituents, and is still leaving people living in great hardship. It was on the right hon. Gentleman’s watch as Chancellor—although he did some things about covid that we would all recognise needed to be done, and we recognised it at the time—that the bounce back loans led to a significant amount of the fraud that resulted from covid. Now my right hon. Friend the Chancellor has stood up, and what has happened? The FTSE is up—and it has gone up by more since I stood up, by 1.6 percentage points, unless anyone can update me—and the OBR has said that this will add growth to the economy.

The right hon. Gentleman also attacked the Chancellor on fiscal rules. Let us be clear: fiscal rules are not a new thing. Since 2011 there have been seven fiscal mandates, five supplementary debt targets, two supplementary borrowing targets, and an investment limit. The rules set in 2011 lasted three years, but in the last three years we have had three different fiscal mandates, two different supplementary debt caps, and one supplementary borrowing target. I think the Chancellor knows that when she is in front of the Treasury Committee we may challenge her and ask her about her fiscal rules, but I have certainty—we all have certainty—that she will be in her post for long enough to stick to the fiscal rules that she has set. They will have a longevity beyond the previous Government. I welcome this Budget, and pay tribute to my right hon. Friend. The UK’s first woman Chancellor stood at that Dispatch Box, and another glass ceiling was shattered. She should be proud; we are proud, and I congratulate her on that achievement.

It is my first Budget as Chair of the Treasury Committee. I have spent 13 years examining public spending in enormous detail, including nine years as Chair of the Public Accounts Committee. Like me, the Chancellor was a scrutineer: she chaired the Business and Trade Committee, and she understands the importance of scrutiny. I am very clear that the Treasury Committee will not give the Chancellor an easy ride, because she is a highly capable woman who can come and explain all her decisions to us. She knows that it is our job to rigorously examine the detail of the Budget next Wednesday, when she will appear in front us. She will be getting a bit of what she dished out as Chair of the Business and Trade Committee. I know that she will expect nothing less than robust challenge—if she were not up to it, she would not be in her post.

I have to say that I am disappointed that so much of this Budget was revealed before today, which is not normal practice. Going forward, I hope that constituents and the MPs representing them will be the first to know about major issues, and that courtesy to this House and the Treasury Committee will be a hallmark of Treasury engagement.

This Budget comes at a very exciting time, but it is a difficult one for the Chancellor. She has made it very clear that she will deliver certainty, and she has inherited one hell of a mess. We have had a tumultuous period: Brexit, the pandemic, the mini-Budget, 14 years of austerity, delayed and failed decisions, particularly on capital spending—we have had three carbon capture and storage projects that have never come to fruition—the saga and cost of stop-and-start on High Speed 2, 700,000 pupils in schools that are not fit for purpose, public services on their knees, and public sector net debt at its highest rate since the second world war.

I congratulate the hon. Lady on her unopposed election as Chair of the wonderful Treasury Committee. Does she share my concern that the individual who has been appointed to the office for value for money was previously on the board of HS2?

The hon. Lady is a former Chair of the Treasury Committee and I welcome her being a member of it, as she will add great value. As she knows, we will have the opportunity to raise questions with the Chancellor at next week’s hearing. She has now been forewarned that the hon. Lady may ask about this issue. It is important that we recognise good people who provide support in the public sector by watching our public finances, and I always take people on good faith unless I have a reason not to do so. We have an opportunity to explore this issue elsewhere.

As a share of GDP, taxes are higher than at any time since world war two. Before the election, my right hon. Friend the Chancellor was tough on spending commitments, and sometimes there was a bit of moaning in the Tea Room. I do not want to tell tales out of school, but shadow Ministers were dismayed because they could not spend everything that they wanted to spend. As Chair of the Public Accounts Committee at the time, however, I knew what she was talking about and that what was coming was not going to be pretty, so I welcome some of the steps that she has announced today. I have not had a chance to look in the Red Book or at the detail, but the multi-year funding settlements that she has put in place are a great opportunity to give certainty to business and investors in our country. Hopefully, we will finally nail the issue of HS2, which has cost the taxpayer a fortune. We need to get on with that in order to make sure that we are delivering investment for our country.

I look forward to seeing the detail on cladding, but it is a big issue in my constituency, where many people’s lives are on hold as a result. The money for affordable homes is incredibly vital for those living in difficult situations, and the Chancellor is absolutely right to have finally funded the compensation schemes for infected-blood victims and for postmasters and postmistresses. When the state makes an error, the state needs to correct it. It should never be a party political football.

The Chancellor has had to make tough choices, and she has set out her fiscal rules to provide clarity to the markets and a long-term trajectory for investment and growth. We on the Treasury Committee will watch net financial debt closely to see how the benefit is measured, and it is important for taxpayers and the market that we do so. She will be more aware than anyone about the impact on the market if she does not manage debt very carefully. International investors may use the existing debt model, so when she comes in front of the Treasury Committee, I would be interested in talking to her about how she sees this playing out in the international arena.

I have enormous respect for the hon. Lady, given her previous role and her important new role as Chair of the Treasury Committee. As the Chancellor will be coming to see the Committee shortly, could the hon. Lady put a question to her on my behalf. We all know that we can learn lessons from previous Budgets about the law of unintended consequences. The thing that most concerns me in this Budget is the combination of raising employers’ national insurance contributions, cutting the threshold at which they start paying NI, and raising the minimum wage. Could the hon. Lady ask the Chancellor whether there will be special support for businesses that employ a lot of people on low wages, such as care homes and childcare settings, which will be most impacted by the measures? Otherwise, the costs will be passed on.

The hon. Lady is a very experienced Member of this House, and she has made her point. She will no doubt have the opportunity to speak in this Budget debate, and there will be plenty of opportunities across the Committee corridor. I welcome her as a fellow Chair. Committee Chairs are already planning how we will work together to ensure that we hold the Government to account, whichever party we represent.

The fiscal rules are designed to provide fiscal certainty and predictability, to bring a sense of discipline to the public finances, and to reassure the markets, as I have mentioned. I welcome that stability, as will the markets, as the FTSE increase suggests. Given the headroom that the Chancellor has secured under the new rule, the Treasury Committee will be watching how much she invests, because we need to see the growth that she has set out as her goal. That must be sustainable, so it needs to be productivity growth. There is no single solution, but analysis by the Resolution Foundation found that a 1% increase in capital stock increases productivity by 0.4%. We will look closely at this, and at the spending review in 2025.

On tax, the increase in employers’ national insurance to 15% is an understandable measure. It is always challenging to find money in these difficult fiscal circumstances, but the increase brings money into the Exchequer at a faster pace than some of the other measures that were mentioned in the media. I have a wide approach to reading about things. If we read The Daily Telegraph, we will think the world is going to hell in a handcart, but if we read more measured commentary, we will find that the Chancellor is judged well on what she has achieved today.

As the hon. Member for Gosport (Dame Caroline Dinenage) said, there are concerns about how the measures in the Budget interact. Alongside sister Committees, we on the Treasury Committee will examine those.

Will the hon. Lady and the Treasury Committee look very carefully at the Chancellor’s proposals on agricultural property relief? They are very likely to do damage to small, family-owned farms, and especially to tenants, who are likely to be evicted as a consequence. Will she look at what that might do—not just for basic justice, but for food security in this country?

If I were the sort of person to get big-headed as a result of the number of Members asking me to do things that are probably not within my remit, I could extend the remit and the power of the Treasury Committee infinitely. Of course, it is the right hon. Member for Orkney and Shetland (Mr Carmichael) who chairs the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee. As I say, we Chairs are planning to ensure that we work closely together on issues where there is an overlap of interests, and we will pick up on all these issues. The Government have promised openness, transparency and accountability, and I take my Front Benchers at their word on that. I am sure that the Chancellor and her Ministers will be available to talk to people and address Members’ concerns about specific elements of the Budget.

I welcome some of the other measures that have been announced. The increase in the national living wage will make a huge difference for so many of my constituents. They work hard and are certainly not shirkers, as some Conservative Members might call them, but they can barely make ends meet. In my constituency, many people work four days a week because they earn enough to be able to do so. Others have four jobs over seven days, just to hold body and soul together. I welcome the increase and the removal of age discrimination.

The devolution model makes so much sense in so many ways. On the Public Accounts Committee, we repeatedly looked at the challenge of bidding for pots of funds, which is costly and time-consuming. We need to trust our elected Mayors to make decisions for their area, and the model shows the direction of trust that, hopefully, this Government will continue to go down.

Before the last general election, I listed what I called the big nasties. This was just some of the additional spending that needed to take place on things that had been left, sometimes by the previous Government and, sadly, sometimes by successive Governments. These issues included the reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete failure in schools—I welcome the move finally to deal with that—the long waiting lists in the NHS and overcrowded prisons. From the Red Book, it looks as though the Justice Department has had an uplift, although it is difficult to make a full judgment on that in the few minutes I have had to glance through it.

Other things such the Animal and Plant Health Agency in Weybridge and Porton Down need investment. These are risky things not to invest in. There is going to be a challenge in public spending even with the increase. Although the increase is welcome, the growth that the Chancellor has called for and is trying to achieve will be required in order to deliver and ensure that we see the spending that we need. Even with the uplift that she highlighted—the 1.5% from next year in day-to-day spending—this is a very tight financial situation for all Government Departments.

The boost to the Department of Health and Social Care is staggering, and welcome. I am sure that the Public Accounts Committee, the Treasury Committee and the Health and Social Care Committee will, among us, hold the Health Secretary to account for his promises to make sure that that is spent well and delivers permanent and lasting change. Also, the capital investment is desperately necessary. It is not that long ago that the previous Government raided capital budgets for day-to-day spending in the NHS. That cannot be allowed to continue.

The investment in defence is also absolutely necessary. There is a huge gap in the defence equipment plan, which I know my right hon. Friend the Chancellor is all over, and she is right to make that increase. I look forward to the path to 2.5% of GDP on defence; never again should we be going below that.

Local government, although it has had a boost, is going to be very squeezed. Again, we will be working with sister Committees to look at that.

The Chancellor also promised to close or reduce the tax gap. That is very bold, and difficult to deliver, so again the Committee will be looking closely at how it is dealt with, as well as at the recovery of fraud moneys, which can be challenging to deliver in any particular timescale.

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I will give way to the Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee.

I thank the Chair of the Treasury Committee and congratulate her on her new role. There was one very welcome bit of the Budget today, and that was the funding for the infected blood scheme and the Post Office Horizon scheme, but will she join me in urging the Chancellor to ensure that those amounts are quickly paid out, so that those victims, whom we hear about almost every day in the media, are rapidly compensated and can get their lives back to normal?

It seems that the Chair of the Public Accounts Committee—this is something the hon. Gentleman and I have in common—hears promises made by Governments of different colours who do not always deliver as they should. He is absolutely right. In fact, the National Audit Office, at my request, pulled together a document looking at compensation schemes. They are often put together differently—although these particular schemes have now been set—and some do not deliver as well as others. Windrush is also in that mix. This is important, and perhaps the hon. Gentleman is offering his services to the Chancellor to ensure that that money gets out of the door. Of course, his Committee will be examining these programmes as time goes on.

It gives me great pleasure to respond to the Budget today and to welcome a Labour Chancellor to her place. I wish her well, and I wish the Labour Government well, of course. I want to see these results on the ground in my constituency. As I say, the Chancellor will appear in front of our Committee, without fear or favour, over the coming years and we will be challenging her and her Ministers to make sure that they stick to the promises that she has laid out today.

We now come to the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey.

It is a pleasure to follow the Chair of the Treasury Committee, the hon. Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Dame Meg Hillier), and I wish her all the best in her new role, especially given her promise to scrutinise this Budget very, very closely. I join her in noting that this is an historic day. This is the first Budget to be presented by a female Chancellor, and I congratulate the right hon. Member for Leeds West and Pudsey (Rachel Reeves). I am sure that she is blazing the trail for the women and girls who are watching our proceedings today.

There can be no doubt about the enormous task facing the Chancellor. After years of chaos and decline under the Conservatives, their appalling economic legacy, set out so clearly in the figures today, is being felt by people across the United Kingdom. People were looking to this Budget for a clean break with those failures of the past few years, and for a sense of hope and urgency and the promise of a fair deal, but I fear that the Budget will not deliver all that. The Conservatives left behind an enormous mess in our NHS, but I am afraid it will not be fixed unless the Government fix social care, too. The cost of living crisis will not be solved by hitting families, pensioners, family farms and struggling small businesses, and our economy will not grow strongly again unless we repair our broken relationship with Europe. Liberal Democrats will continue to stand up for our constituents and press the Government to be far bolder and act much faster on people’s priorities.

Having said that, let me recognise that there were some good things in the Budget. I welcome the Chancellor’s decision to move away from the Conservatives’ broken fiscal rules to allow the capital investment that our country so desperately needs. I was genuinely surprised that there was no recognition from the Leader of the Opposition of the difference between capital and current spending, which is at the heart of this change. I welcome the promise of full compensation for the victims of the contaminated blood scandal and the Horizon scandal, and I hope that that can be delivered quickly.

I also welcome the extra investment in our NHS. Fixing the crisis in our NHS is literally a matter of life and death. It is also essential for growing our economy, by getting people off waiting lists and getting them fit and healthy and back into work. The Conservatives left the health service on its knees. We on the Liberal Democrat Benches have consistently argued for more investment across the NHS—in hospital buildings, extra GPs, cancer nurses, new radiotherapy machines and much more—so I am glad that the Government and the Chancellor have been listening.

However, people have heard bold promises of extra GPs and new hospitals before. The Conservatives made similar promises on the NHS and then broke them, so what we need now is a guarantee that this Government will deliver. I can assure the Chancellor that Liberal Democrats will hold the Government to account on their NHS plans, and I hope that the Budget document sets out in full the answers to some obvious questions. When will the funding be in place for desperately needed hospital projects, and when will those projects be completed? When will the Government be able to guarantee that people can see a GP or an NHS dentist when they need one? When will all cancer patients be able to start treatment within the 62-day target and not have to wait for months? When will people know once more that when they call an ambulance it will be there within minutes, not hours?

Above all, as I have said before, I worry that despite the welcome extra investment announced today, the Government will not be able to fix the NHS because they are ignoring the elephant in the NHS waiting room: the crisis in social care. We all know how bad it is. Hundreds of thousands of people are waiting for care, and many are stranded in hospital beds because the care is not in place for them to leave hospital. That is bad for them, bad for their loved ones and bad for the NHS. I am afraid that today’s announcement on social care just will not touch the sides. It is only a standstill in a crisis. Unless we finally tackle this problem and agree a long-term solution for social care, we will never end the crisis in our health service, so I urge the Government once again to start cross-party talks on care without further delay and to take action now.

Any solution must involve paying care workers properly to fill the 130,000 care worker vacancies, so that elderly and disabled people can get the care they need. The Government’s plan for a fair pay agreement is a step in the right direction, but it is nowhere near enough, so will the Chancellor look at our plans for a special higher minimum wage for carers? And we must not forget the vital role of unpaid family carers—the heroes keeping the entire system afloat. I strongly welcome the Chancellor’s decision to raise the earnings limit for carer’s allowance. It is a good first step, but as she accepted in her speech, on its own it will not end the repayments scandal or fix the system. Will she confirm whether the earnings limit will, in future, be pegged to at least 16 hours a week at the minimum wage? Although I am glad that the review will look again at getting rid of the cliff edge for carer’s allowance and the earnings limit, I hope she and her colleagues will consider a broader review to give family carers the support they deserve.

The Conservative cost of living crisis has hit family carers particularly hard, but they are not alone. Practically no one has been left untouched by rising bills, higher mortgage payments and soaring food prices. Our small businesses and the self-employed have experienced a crisis of their own, having had to deal with the pandemic and now spiking energy prices and other input costs. The Conservatives only added to that pain by hitting struggling families with stealth tax rises, by betraying pensioners when they broke the triple lock, and by raising national insurance for our small businesses.

I welcome the increase in the national minimum wage as it addresses the cost of living, although I urge the Chancellor to extend this higher wage to apprentices, too. However, it is concerning to see the Chancellor repeat a number of the Conservatives’ past mistakes. Raising employers’ national insurance is a tax on jobs and people. The OBR report published today shows that the Budget will reduce real household incomes and worsen the health and care crisis by hitting thousands of small care providers. Hitting family homes with changes to inheritance tax will not help, and cutting winter fuel payments will leave millions of vulnerable pensioners worried sick this winter.

Instead of adopting Liberal Democrat proposals to raise the money we need, such as by reversing Conservative tax cuts for the big banks or by asking the social media giants to pay a bit more, the Chancellor has chosen unfair tax hikes that will hurt small and medium-sized businesses, which are the engines of our economy. They have already paid too high a price for Conservative economic failures, and forcing them to pay even more simply is not right.

Another Conservative mess that I fear this Budget will not begin to clean up is the crisis in local council funding. Year after year, the previous Government slashed funding while asking councils to do more and more. The result has been nothing short of a disaster. Spiralling social care costs are a huge part of this, which is yet another reason why reform is so vital.

There is another black hole in council budgets due to the broken system for special educational needs and disabilities. The extra £1 billion announced by the Chancellor is therefore welcome, and I pay tribute to my colleagues, not least my hon. Friend the Member for Twickenham (Munira Wilson), who have campaigned so hard on this. However, I fear that the crisis in SEND budgets left by the Conservatives is much bigger.

Last week, the National Audit Office laid bare the sheer scale of the problem, with half of children waiting more than the 20-week limit for an education, health and care plan, and with 43% of councils at risk of bankruptcy. The severity of the crisis left by the Conservatives speaks for itself, so we need to act with even greater urgency to tackle it. We will press the Government to give the House a clear timeline for reform, because neither children, parents nor councils can wait any longer.

The Chancellor has said that her main objective is economic growth, and she is right. We all agree that we need to get our economy growing strongly again to create jobs and opportunities for everyone, and to raise the money that our public services need, but we need a real plan to do that and not just stop things getting worse or return to business as usual. We need to build the economy of the future—one that is genuinely innovative, prosperous and fair.

Part of that is about fixing the health and care crisis, which will be crucial, as will managing the public finances responsibly and giving businesses the certainty and stability they need to invest in our economy. We must also invest in cheap, clean, renewable power to drive a strong recovery, to bring down energy bills and to create secure, well-paid jobs. I welcome the steps that the Government have taken so far, but we must do more to back small businesses. They are the beating heart of our local economies, so I urge the Chancellor to go beyond today’s announcement on business rates by making an historic change to overhaul the broken business rates system that is destroying our high streets and town centres. Tinkering around the edges is simply not good enough any longer.

One final crucial ingredient of growth is fixing our broken relationship with Europe. Removing the Conservatives’ trade barriers would be a massive boost for British jobs, British business and the British economy. By ruling out important steps such as a youth mobility scheme or key long-term goals such as membership of the single market, the Government are trying to grow our economy with one arm tied behind their back.

In July, the British people kicked out of office one of the most damaging Governments in our country’s history. On the Conservatives’ watch, we saw living standards fall, the economy stagnate and public services decline. Although no Government would have an easy time turning that around, people were looking to this Budget for hope and a genuinely new direction. They were looking for urgent action to fix the health and care crisis, for a break from the previous Government’s tax mistakes, for a plan to grow our economy and to rescue local councils that are on the brink, and for a fair deal.

Yes, the Chancellor had to make big, difficult decisions, but I fear that she has got too many of them wrong. We needed a different Budget to repair the damage done to our country and to give people the fair deal they deserve. For our constituents, Liberal Democrat Members will push the Government to do far more for our economy, for the NHS and for care—those are the things that the Liberal Democrats will always champion.

I call the Chair of the Business and Trade Committee, which is my old Select Committee.

I congratulate our first female Chancellor on delivering an outstanding Budget. It is a great pleasure to speak in my first Budget debate for 14 years, and I think that period of silence was probably appreciated more by my own party than by any other.

When I look back on those debates, which I listened to even though I did not speak, it is striking that the curtain has finally fallen on an economic philosophy, an economic approach and an economic settlement that has fundamentally failed this country. Over the past 14 years, we have witnessed something akin to “The A.B.C. Murders” of the British economy—austerity and a bungled Brexit, followed by chaos.

I see clearly how today’s Budget is a very different kind of settlement. It honours the approach, the compassion, the intelligence and the judgment of the last Budget presented to this House by my good friend, mentor and boss, Lord Darling, in March 2010. Alistair Darling is much missed in this place. [Hon. Members: “Hear, hear.”] He was a man of dry wit, patience, tenacity, kindness and compassion. I have no hint of reservation in my mind in saying that this is a Budget of which he would have been proud, because it strikes the right balance. All Budgets are a balance, as we ask Chancellors not only to balance the numbers but, more importantly, to balance the interests of our country.

Compared with the Budget in March 2010, the Chancellor’s task today was far harder. Back in 2010, we tried to present a Budget that would remedy a deficit opened up by the greatest financial crash since the 1930s.

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We aimed to get the right balance between spending restraint, budget rises, growth and time. Balancing those four ingredients was at the heart of any Budget judgment, and our judgment would have halved the deficit within four years and seen debt falling by 2016. Our obsession was to avoid the double-dip recession that had been experienced in Japan and to ensure we escaped the perils of widening inequality that we had seen in the United States. Mr Osborne chose a different path, and he was supported by the right hon. Member for New Forest West (Sir Desmond Swayne), to whom it is my pleasure to give way.

The reality, as the right hon. Gentleman knows because he wrote to his successor about it, is that he left us with a deficit that stood at fully 10%, as against the 4.3%—and in sharp decline—that we have bequeathed to this Government.

Let us be really clear about what has been bequeathed to this Government. The right hon. Gentleman is right that back in 2010, at the height of the financial crash, the deficit went up. What happens in a financial crash is that the economy has a heart attack: spending continues, because to cut spending would be to deepen a recession and turn it into a depression, tax receipts fall off a cliff, and the role of Government is to sustain a country through that kind of crisis. The deficit rose to £154.4 billion, yet today how much interest do we pay on the debt we have been bequeathed? We pay £104 billion in interest alone, which is almost the entirety of the deficit we had back in 2010.

It is important for the House to recognise that that happened because Mr Osborne chose a balance that was different. He chose to load his austerity programme on public spending cuts. Actually, he eventually arrived at the same settlement that Labour proposed in 2010, but he took four or five years to get there and he put the economy into recession. If memory serves me correctly, he blamed it on some light snow. That austerity programme was followed by a Brexit that was bungled, and then the chaos of the former Prime Minister.

Does my right hon. Friend recall that the previous Labour Government oversaw the fastest economic recovery from the international incident? The economy was back in growth by the time of the election because of investments like over £20 billion for research and development, so our economy could compete in the race to the top, not the race to the bottom that we saw under the previous Government?

Correct. In a way, that is the point that I am gently trying to make to the House, with a very brief and, everyone will be pleased to hear, soon-to-conclude lesson in the fiscal consolidation of the last 14 years.

Austerity, a bungled Brexit and chaos left us with a growth rate that fell from an average of 3% in the Labour years down to 1.6% over the last 14 years. We had tax forecasts that failed time and time and time and time again; living standards that simply did not rise in the last Parliament; productivity growth that collapsed from about 2% a year to about 0.5% a year; inequality that soared; and, as I have just rehearsed, debt that multiplied to an extraordinary £2.7 trillion.

In the old days, we used to have debates about whether the roof had been fixed while the sun was shining. The reality is that for the last 14 years, the Conservative party has been trying to patch the roof by ripping out the foundations of our economy. That approach has drawn to a close today. We have only got through the last 14 years because of the ingenuity, fortitude, kindness and compassion of the people we represent. Those people deserve a better approach and that is what they got from the Chancellor today. We have an approach that Alistair Darling would have well appreciated: a Budget balanced not simply in the numbers, but in the balance of interests.

If we look at the numbers in the Red Book, we can see the guts of that different approach. Everybody knows—we might as well be honest in the House today—that the original sin of the British economy is a failure in the investment rate. Over the last 14 years, the approach to trying to stimulate development has relied on tax cut after tax cut after tax cut after tax cut. Today, the Chancellor has ended the insanity of trying the same thing over and over again, expecting different results.

The capital investment delivered by this Budget will see £104 billion extra being surged into the economy. The Chancellor was absolutely right. Last week, at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, we heard a clear message from the IMF that unless we raise the fixed rate of investment in our economy, we are not going to improve living standards or the growth rate, and we are not going to pay down the debt, so the Chancellor’s approach is extremely welcome.

The Budget forecast shows that over the forecast period, we will now see the rate of fixed investment increase in our economy by between 6% and 7%. That is still probably not enough to catch up with our competitors, but it is a hell of a good start and, crucially, it is a departure from the failed economic philosophy for stimulating investment of the last 14 years. After 14 years of failure, it was time to try something new, and that is what the Chancellor has given us today.

That allows us to strike a new bargain with business. We can say to the business community, “Look, we will put £104 billion extra of capital investment into the economy. We will make sure you have the roads, the railway systems and the digital infrastructure that you need for your markets to function. We will make sure you have a workforce that is actually healthy and well, fit for work and well-trained. We will make sure there is investment in the skills you need in your business, and we will make sure your workers stand a hope in hell of getting a home somewhere near their work. We will make sure there is investment in research and development.” Why? Because if we put all of that together, we will have the greatest entrepreneurs in the world.

Our entrepreneurs have been making history by inventing the future since the age of the industrial revolution, but they need good people, good ideas and access to capital markets, which they do not have today. This Budget begins to make that available.

Will the right hon. Gentleman and the Chancellor remember that working people also live in rural areas? I was disappointed that the word “rural” was mentioned only twice in an hour during the Chancellor’s speech, and then only as an aside. No mention was made of the south-west of England, where there are serious pockets of deprivation—

Except Cornwall.

Except Cornwall, but no towns. No mention was made of the rest of the south-west, where we suffer from a lack of public transport. Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that access to public transport and primary care is vital for working people in rural areas?

I agree 100%, but I say gently to right hon. and hon. Members across the House that that is not free. If we want to ensure that there are good transport links and digital links, that the workforce is healthy, well and trained, and that there is a rich ecosystem of ideas, the money has to come from somewhere. The sensible decisions that have been made to increase borrowing in order to fund a higher level of fixed capital investment are wise. Investment in public services is wise too. I very much hope that that will benefit the hon. Lady’s constituency.

An increase in investment on the scale we have seen today will improve the profitability of businesses in this country. The Business and Trade Committee looks forward to scrutinising the detail and ensuring the Government have got the balance right, because, goodness knows, it is hard enough to get the balance right in a Budget, never mind translating it into legislation. That bargain for business has to consist of two sides: on the one hand, we will create a better business environment through higher capital investment, but on the other we have to give workers a pay rise.

The labour share of income in this country has fallen precipitously since the 1950s. If the labour share of national income was as high today as it was in 1955, on average a worker would be receiving a pay packet this year that was over £7,000 bigger. That is why we have to get the balance right between ensuring that businesses are more profitable and ensuring that workers are getting their share of national income. Getting the balance right is difficult. Like my hon. Friend the Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Dame Meg Hillier), the Chair of the Treasury Committee, my Committee and I will scrutinise that in detail. We will begin that work when we see the Secretary of State for Business and Trade in front of our Committee in just a couple of weeks’ time.

My final point is about where I wanted the Chancellor to go further. Among the worst of her inheritance is the yawning gulf in inequality that scars our country. We have a moral emergency in Britain: sales of superyachts, luxury cars and big mansions are at an all-time high, but, at exactly the same time, the queues for food banks have never been greater. There is no mystery to that. Over the past 14 years, the combination of easy money and low taxes on capital income has meant that the top 1% in our country—the luckiest 1%—are 41 times richer than everybody else. Did they work 41 times harder? Are they 41 times cleverer? Did they win the lottery? Well, in a way they did, because £850 billion-worth of quantitative easing held interest rates in our country down by about 1%. That triggered three quarters of the rise in asset prices that we have seen over the past 14 years. Of course, people in the top 1% will own assets and will have seen a windfall gain, yet the rate of tax they pay on those capital gains is just half the top rate of marginal tax.

I am sorry that the Leader of the Opposition is no longer in his place to hear me say this, but he did a good thing a couple of years ago, which was to publish his tax return. I am sure that all hon. Members will have read it—it does not take long, as it is only a page long. It declares an income of £2 million and a tax rate of 23%. At a time when so many people in our country are paying a top marginal rate of more than 47%, I do not think that it is morally right that those with broader shoulders are paying much lower tax rates. I would have liked to have seen the Chancellor go further on capital gains tax.

I welcome the changes to the non-dom and inheritance tax regimes, but I would have proposed other changes as well. If we had truly restored fairness to the tax system, we could have raised money to increase the national wealth fund and opened the opportunity, for the first time, of paying dividends into a universal savings account for every young person in this country. That would have helped them get a foot on the housing ladder, repay their student debt, invest in their training, or kickstart savings for their pension. That would have helped us to create a universal basic capital system in this country. We will need a system like that if we are to fix the scandalous inequalities of wealth that now bedevil our country. None the less, I accept that the Chancellor had to put first things first today. She had to fix the foundations, because, as all of us in this House know, if we get that job done well, the best years for this country truly lie ahead of us.

I call the Father of the House.

It is a pleasure to follow the right hon. Member for Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North (Liam Byrne). He said that Alistair Darling was his hero. My hero was Nigel Lawson, because I am personally convinced that the way to create growth and prosperity is to flatten and lower taxes. I think I have sat through 45 Budget statements in this House. They are quite exhausting, and I am quite cynical about the whole process. Normally, large amounts of good news are given out during the Budget statement when we are all sitting in the Chamber, but when we read the Red Book the next day we find that we are probably paying even more tax than we were before—everything has been taken back. However, this time, the pain has been loaded up front, so I suppose we should be grateful for small mercies. I am sure the Chancellor of the Exchequer would claim that she is just being honest, but the Budget is, none the less, a massive expansion of tax and spend. Governments who indulge in massive expansions of tax and spends are Governments who gradually impoverish countries.

More and more people—even those just surviving on a state pension—will be dragged into tax. People on higher incomes will be dragged into paying ever higher rates of tax. The right hon. Member for Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North made the classic attack on the top earners, but 1% of top earners pay 30% of all tax revenues. If we simply tax people more and more at the top end of the scale, we will get less enterprise, less growth, and those people will leave the country. It is a vicious circle, and it does not work.

I am incredibly grateful to the Father of the House for giving way, which is characteristically generous. I think we would both agree that his inspiration and mentor, Nigel Lawson, was not a hoary old socialist, but, of course, he was the one who equalised the top rate of tax and the rate of capital gains, and I did not see people fleeing the country back then.

The right hon. Gentleman and I could have an argument about history, but I would still defend my mentor and, even more so, the Prime Minister at that time, Margaret Thatcher, until the day I die, and we would just have to disagree on that. That is our philosophical foundation.

I could devote my speech to an attack on the Labour Government. There is plenty of ammunition to do so. The leader of my party has just given a brilliant exposé of their weaknesses. However, I want to take the debate a bit further and not be too party political. The British state has fundamental problems. Members can the criticise the previous Government for not having the time or the courage to deal with things, or they could say that we were thrown off course by the pandemic. There are a whole load of reasons why we were not able to solve the fundamental problems, but I believe very strongly that this Budget will not solve them either. My personal belief is that we have to create an entire new social contract. More and more people feel disconnected from the need to work and to take responsibility for their lives. There are four or perhaps five key failures in the state, and I do not think that the Budget has long-term solutions for them. I refer to the national health service, the pension service, benefits, immigration, and probably housing, and they are all interconnected. As successive Governments have not had the courage to go to the root causes of our failure as a state, we are gradually falling behind other countries.

Pumping in more billions of pounds this year, next year and the year after that will not solve the fundamental problem of the national health service. This is a huge, inefficient, state-run monopoly that solves its problems with queueing. Somebody of my age knows all about the national health service and having to wait for non-urgent operations—not just for months, but for years, and I can speak about that with personal experience.

In Lincolnshire, nearly six out of 10 people faced wait times exceeding four hours to be seen in A&E in 2023. That is a 42% increase. Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that the investments made today will help reduce those waiting times in Lincolnshire?

Well, let us see. Of course we can pump more and more money into this broken system and solve some of the short-term problems, but soon we will be not just a country with an NHS, but an NHS with a country attached to it. Is it 44% of total spending that goes on the NHS? It is growing all the time, which means that, as a country, we are gradually becoming poorer and poorer. The long-term result will be that we will have a worse health service. I say to the hon. Lady that, of course, it is totally unacceptable that people wait hours to be treated in A&E, and wait months and years for an operation. In Lincolnshire, 58% of people in A&E now have to wait more than four hours—four hours! I can tell the House horror stories of my constituents waiting up to 24 hours. That is not happening in any other developed country. It is totally unacceptable. Surely everyone in this House can unite around the a principle that those who have paid into the system for years should be treated with dignity and expeditiously.

Will the right hon. Member give way?

I must not give way too much, because I will prevent other people from getting in.

A study of 18 developed countries shows that the UK is in the bottom three when it comes to survival rates for common cancers, strokes and heart attacks. Lord Darzi’s review found that 14,000 avoidable deaths per year were due to long waits in A&E. This drags our life expectancy statistics down and down. Meanwhile, even before the Budget, the NHS was eating up 44% of day-to-day public spending. We are paying more and more and the results are getting worse and worse. I predict that for the rest of this Parliament, the Government will keep on pumping more of our national wealth into this failed system and we will still fail to catch up with other countries.

Will the right hon. Member give way?

No; I have to keep going.

I accept that some issues, such as hospital capacity, can only be dealt with by spending, but we do not need to reinvent the wheel; we need to learn from other countries. The Health Secretary, who I admire for his apparent radical zeal—although we have not seen much evidence of it—studied Australia, for instance. Let me break the national taboo on “our NHS”, our religion. There are other countries that are like ourselves but which deliver much better—incomparably superior—health outcomes. It is my personal belief, and I think I am about the only person who has said this year after year, that we should adopt Australia’s social insurance model. There is nothing wrong with encouraging private provision in health. Is that some great heresy? Is it some sort of right-wing philosophy? Well, it is followed by France, Germany, Australia and the Netherlands, and all those other countries produce much better health outcomes.

Australia slowly developed a hybrid system of state and private health insurance. Everyone has universal public health insurance, but workers are encouraged to purchase private health insurance on top of that. My point is that, with a ballooning, ageing population, yes, we have to spend more on health, but we have to get people to put more of their own money into health; and they must be assured that, having put their money in, they will not just end up at the back of a queue, because they have personal rights and are committed to this health service.

For instance, the average cost of a treatment-only plan for a 20-year-old in Australia is just £23.14 a month, and comprehensive cover starts at £31 a month. That cost rises to £109 per month for a 70-year-old. People earning less than £119,000 can claim rebates to reduce the cost of health insurance, and higher earners without insurance pay a surcharge of between 1% and 1.5%. Research commissioned by Australia’s Department of Health shows that the cost to the taxpayer would be greater without the rebates, because there would be increased stress on the public system.

The health outcomes are noticeable. Australia has one of the lowest rates of avoidable mortality among the developed nations. Its cancer survival rates are several percentage points higher than the UK’s, and stroke and heart attack mortality rates are several points lower. It is not perfect, of course, and not everything can be imported from other countries, but Australia’s system shows that there are other models.

We must have a national debate about how, with an ageing population, we can produce the kind of health outcomes that people desire. There is a cumulative effect: in 2022, the Australian Government debt was 70% of GDP. In other words, it is running a tight, well-run ship. That is a country much like us—but the UK has already, even before this Budget, reached a staggering 104% debt in the same year. We are going broke because we do not have the courage, on either side of the aisle, to think from first principles. I am making this argument as much to those on my own Benches as I am to the Government. This situation simply cannot go on and on, otherwise people will start talking about charging or giving tax relief for private health insurance.

We have to have a fundamental debate about the whole structure of health, and the Health Secretary has the good will of people across the House and across the country to start thinking big and thinking of new ideas. If he can find a way forward and improve health outcomes, he will go down in history as one of the greatest Health Secretaries we have ever had.

The second fundamental problem we have is the ballooning benefits system, particularly when it comes to incapacity. It is trapping more and more people in dependence. We need a culture of the necessity of work. We have 4 million people on incapacity benefit, and two thirds of them—recent joiners—are claiming mental illness. The situation is out of control. Work should always pay more than benefits. I would have liked to have heard more from the Chancellor about how she is going to attack the benefits system and incapacity, which is gradually reducing the Government into penury.

Would the right hon. Member join me in congratulating the Chancellor on raising the national living wage—an uplift that will have a transformative impact on the lives of more than a third of children living in poverty in Gainsborough as well as children living in poverty in my constituency of North Warwickshire and Bedworth? The measure will make such a massive difference.

The hon. Lady has made her point, although I was talking about incapacity benefit, so I am not sure how her point has addressed mine.

The culture of people living off the state for years, when they are capable of doing some work, needs to be stamped out. We have to work together in the House to get people off benefits and help them. It is about not just reducing benefits, but having innovative schemes, like those that the former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, my right hon. Friend the Member for Central Devon (Mel Stride), was trying to bring about to encourage people back into work, making their whole lives better and more productive.

Thirdly, tackling benefits is a vital ingredient of curbing immigration. What is the spur for mass immigration? It is that health and social care simply cannot get enough workers for the salaries they are paying. There are too many people on benefits, and we are dragging more and more people from all over the world into our system. We need to insist that anyone entering the country earns at least average UK earnings. We cannot go on undercutting our native workers with cheap foreign labour. We have to pay decent wages in our care service, and reform the whole benefits structure so that people actually want to work. We cannot solve our problems with mass immigration, and mass illegal immigration is part of the problem. It is gradually destroying the social contract and people’s belief in the system, and the Government must have a plan to deal with it, which basically means arresting people when they land illegally on these shores, and offshoring them.

The other great problem in our national psyche that we have not really addressed is the whole pension system. I have to declare an interest: I am of pensionable age. [Hon. Members: “Never!”] Some Members will be very happy when I retire from this House, but I do try to tell the truth according to my own lights and to state difficult truths. The fact is that we have more and more elderly people, more and more sick people, and more and more people with multiple health problems. We are all committed to keeping the triple lock, and I would get into awful deep water if I said that doing so is becoming increasingly unaffordable, but of course if the portion of the state spending devoted to pensions increases every year in real terms, we will gradually ensure that the country cannot pay its way.

This is a difficult truth that nobody yet has had the courage to address: we have to do more to encourage private pensions, and not—I say this to the Chancellor—seeing private pension pots as a convenient thing to raise taxes on. Many years ago, I served on the Social Security Committee under the late, great Frank Field, a man immensely respected on both sides of the aisle. We studied countries like Chile that were making explicit the creation of contributory pension systems. People were encouraged to put more into their pensions and plan for their old age. That is the only way, with an ageing population, that we can solve our problems.

In addition to all this, I am afraid that wokery and human rights legislation are gradually eating away into our—[Laughter.] Government Members may all laugh, but it is true. Many people feel that they are not part of the way in which this country is run. These are just lessons that the Government have to learn.

Will the right hon. Member give way?

The hon. Lady has tried to intervene again and again, so I will give way.

The right hon. Member mentions that many people do not feel part of how the country has been run, and for the last 14 years we have seen regressive Budgets that have hit the poorest hardest. Does he welcome, with me, that our Budget is progressive and in fact distributes the burden where it is most well shouldered?

Well, if the hon. Lady thinks that, I wish her luck, but I fear that we are just going to gradually paper over the cracks—and I will criticise my own side in this regard. For 14 years, Ministers went along with the liberal consensus, talking about “our NHS”, papering over the cracks with more and more money, employing more and more nurses and doctors, and getting worse and worse outcomes. Meanwhile, productivity nosedived and mass immigration reached unimaginable heights to keep public services going.

We have to be honest, as we are now in opposition. I welcome the fact that one of our leadership candidates is saying that we have to start from first principles. That is what I am trying to do: start from first principles on how to recreate the British state. That is what Mrs Thatcher did; I worked for her when she was Leader of the Opposition in the 1970s. We need a whole new intellectual drive. In opposition, Keith Joseph and the Institute of Economic Affairs created a new vibrant Conservative philosophy for how we could solve the deep-seated problems in this country. The Budget could have been such an opportunity, but I am afraid it reflects the old tax and spend instincts of the Labour party. I agree with the Labour party that housing is a great failure of our state. Of course we need a massive house building drive, or more appropriately a flat building campaign. The easy way out is to take good agricultural land and greenbelt land, particularly around London. Instead, we need to incentivise building in cities and on brownfield sites.

I fear I have wearied the House, so I will stop now. [Hon. Members: “More!”] No doubt these difficult words about the national health service or the triple lock will be used by Labour party spokesmen for years to come, if anybody is interested. However, I hope that we have the intellectual courage to try to solve the real problems in our society. How are we going to get a decent health service that is on a par with what we find in France, Australia and the Netherlands? How are we going to get a decent housing programme? How are we going to get people to contribute more towards their old age? Unless we address the fundamental deep-seated problems in the British state we will just gradually become a poorer and poorer nation.

It is an honour to follow the Father of the House; I hope not to weary the House with my speech. Today, the Chancellor has been extraordinary in her strength and her ability to turn a really bad situation into a really good one. We cannot hide from the fact that we have had 14 years of Tory Government. While those on social media may say, “Oh, the Labour party is just slagging off the Tories for the last 14 years,” those 14 years are the reason I decided to stand to be a Member of Parliament. Having been the Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Chancellor when she was the shadow Chancellor, and having been the shadow Whip to the Treasury team, I know the integrity and seriousness with which they will have dealt with her first Budget.

The scaremongering of the Leader of the Opposition, pretending to be a man of the people, really sticks in my throat. I do not know how he has the audacity after 14 years of Tory Government. However, the Labour party and this Labour Government have promised change from the failure of the last 14 years, and the Budget shows our commitment to deliver that. The scale of the challenge is gargantuan, and I know that the Chancellor has made some tough but necessary decisions. Although inflation has subsided to around 2%, helping to boost household incomes, interest rates are predicted to be cut later in the year, extending household budgets a bit more. I need not remind the House that the inflation reached 11% under the last Government.

Today, I will wear a number of hats—metaphorically, of course. I am the Chair of the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee, and the chair of the all-party parliamentary beer group. [Hon. Members: “Hear, hear!”] It is very important. I am also the MP for a constituency where agriculture plays a huge role. Many of my farming constituents, and many farmers around the country, were concerned to hear speculation regarding the removal or upheaval of inheritance tax reliefs, including the agricultural property relief and business property relief. With many farmers still feeling the impact of the loss of direct payments, two years of severe flooding, high inflation and extremely volatile market conditions, the industry welcomed reassurances from Labour last year that agricultural property relief would not be changed.

Family farms are the backbone of the industry, especially in my constituency of Gower. Farming is in these people’s blood. They do not do it for financial benefit, because for many of them there is not much money in it. They do it because it is their life and their calling. The 100% rate of relief continuing for the first £1 million of combined agricultural and business assets to help to protect family farms and businesses is most welcome, but I would appreciate an opportunity to discuss with the Chancellor, the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs or the Treasury team how we can ensure that family farms that may come just over the threshold can continue to play their role in our country, and how we can support them through the change and avoid any unintended consequences. I am hopeful that measures in the Budget will help the industry by driving ambition and investment. Investment in our agricultural sector will improve our food security and give farmers confidence in a Labour Government.

As well as agriculture, brewing and hospitality have a huge footprint in my constituency and across every United Kingdom constituency. These sectors support 1 million jobs, provide £17 billion in wages and deliver £34.3 billion of gross value added across the UK economy. The brewing and hospitality sectors are vital to the economic and social wellbeing of our communities across the United Kingdom; however, the industry remains under a great deal of pressure post the pandemic. Supported by a number of members of the all-party parliamentary beer group, I wrote to the Chancellor highlighting key areas in which the Budget could make a positive impact on the brewing and hospitality sectors.

First, the industry previously welcomed the Government’s pledge to reform the business rates system, and I welcome today’s announcement of the Chancellor’s commitment to permanently lower business rates multipliers for retail, hospitality and leisure properties from 2026-27. I acknowledge that the drop to 40% relief will cause concern, so I hope that the Chancellor or the Secretary of State for Business and Trade will work with the sector to address those concerns.

Secondly, the beer and pub sector is one of the highest taxed sectors of the economy in recent years. The industry has supported the alcohol duty review. The cutting of duty on draught products is a recognition of the commitment to pubs and smaller breweries. Again, I hope that concerns around the increase on non-draught products in line with RPI will be listened to. Finally, I am pleased to hear the Chancellor commit to ensuring that Northern Ireland receives its fair share, with an extra £1.7 billion received through the Barnett formula. I am personally delighted to read that £730,000 will be given to the Executive to support integrated education, and a further £45.8 million will be given to support the vital work of the additional security fund of the Police Service of Northern Ireland, and the Executive programme on paramilitarism and organised crime.

Aside from that, concerns have been raised with me about future funding applications for organisations in Northern Ireland—whether about the shared prosperity fund, the city deals, or, let us not forget, the poor execution of the levelling-up fund under the last Government. Community groups play such a vital role in Northern Ireland, and we must recognise that. The shared prosperity fund has been a lifeline for many organisations, and although it is continuing at a reduced rate, I welcome the fact that the Budget puts aside £1 million for community groups in Northern Ireland. The decision on the Causeway Coast and Mid South West city deals was paused during the pre-Budget spending review, so I am sure that the people behind those deals will be absolutely delighted with the announcement that they will go ahead.

I am hopeful that the Government will work well with our devolved Governments. As we have seen, the last 14 years have worked against the Labour Government in Wales. We must have the best outcomes for people across the United Kingdom. The increase in funding through the Barnett formula shows positive commitment to devolution. The Budget is difficult, but it is necessary. It is a once-in-a-generation Budget. It will, and it must, deliver the change that our constituents voted for. We will not go backwards; we will only go forwards. This country needs change.