Global Oil Production

John Hemming
To ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry in which year the Government expect (a) global conventional oil production and (b) global total oil production to peak; and what the Government expect to be the level of peak global oil production.

Malcolm Wicks
The Government consider that the world’s oil resources are sufficient to prevent global total oil production peaking before 2030, by which time the International Energy Agency’s reference case scenario in its 2005 World Energy Outlook shows global oil demand reaching 115.4 million barrel per day, nearly 40 per cent. higher than current levels. The exact levels and years of the peaks in global conventional and total oil production will depend on assumptions about a number of factors, including the rate of global oil demand growth, the rate of investment in the global oil sector, and technological developments in finding and producing oil.

Market mechanisms will ration the remaining global supplies of oil and provide the incentive for a shift to alternative sources of energy. This process needs to be supported by Governments. The UK Government are already putting in place policies that will help ease the UK economy away from power supplied primarily through fossil fuels and is also promoting international efforts, for example through the G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action, to develop cleaner energy technologies and promote energy efficiency.