Aviation: Taxation

Mr. Peter Ainsworth
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport what his forecast is for the constrained air passenger demand in 2030, taking into account (a) the implementation of the increases in air passenger Duty announced in the 2008 Pre-Budget Report, (b) expectations of future levels of gross domestic product as set out in the 2008 Pre-Budget Report and (c) the effect of aviation being included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme on the basis of current proposals; and what adjustment would be made to this forecast if it is also assumed that a barrel of oil will cost $150 in 2030.

Jim Fitzpatrick
The Department for Transport's UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts, page 48, reports the forecast of 2030 constrained air passenger demand for: each of the individual scenarios (a), (b), (c); and, a 2030 oil price of $150 per barrel (in 2007 prices). This report is available at:

http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/aviation/atf/co2forecasts09/

No assessment has been made of the forecast of 2030 constrained air passenger demand taking into account (a), (b) and (c) together. Therefore, no assessment has been made of the adjustment that would be made to such a forecast if a barrel of oil were to cost $150 (in 2007 prices) in 2030.