UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts, 2009: Errata

The Secretary of State for Transport (Mr. Geoffrey Hoon)
The Department for Transport is today publishing an errata to “UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 forecasts 2009”, which was published in January. Copies of the errata have been placed in the Libraries of both Houses. This follows its identification of an input error to the 2009 GDP growth rate for the “PBR Nov 2008 GDP forecast” sensitivity test. The 2009 GDP growth rate was entered as +1%, when it should have been -1%. GDP growth rates for later years, the central case forecasts and other sensitivity tests are unaffected.

This sensitivity test is relevant to those who are preparing evidence for the Stansted G2 public inquiry. The Department for Transport is, therefore, taking steps to alert participants to the minor corrections so they can use them in forming their evidence.

The air passenger demand and CO2 forecasts, and net benefits of a third runway at Heathrow and a second runway at Stansted, have been re-estimated for this sensitivity test with this input error corrected.

Table 4.4 (page 96) of “UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 forecasts 2009” presents the net benefits of a second runway at Stansted and a third runway at Heathrow under a range of sensitivity tests.

The net benefit of a second runway, with associated terminal capacity, at Stansted in the central case was £10.0 billion. Under the “PBR Nov 2008 GDP forecasts” sensitivity test, the net benefit was £8.7 billion. With the input error corrected the net benefit under this sensitivity test falls to £8.6 billion. This revised estimate is:

i. well within the range of net benefits reported in table 4.4 (page 96) of “UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 forecasts 2009” (£4.3 billion - £11.3 billion).

The net benefit of a third runway and sixth terminal at Heathrow, in the central case, was £5.5 billion. In the “PBR Nov 2008 GDP forecasts” sensitivity test, the net benefit was £5.4 billion. With the input error corrected the net benefit under this sensitivity test falls to £5.1 billion. This revised estimate is:

i. well within the range of net benefits reported in table 4.4 (page 96) of “UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 forecasts 2009” and in table 10 (page 35) of “Adding Capacity at Heathrow Airport—Impact Assessment” (£0.9 billion - £9.7 billion); and,

ii. at the upper end of the range of net benefits reported in annex B of “Adding Capacity at Heathrow Airport—Consultation Document” (£4.4 billion—£5.2 billion).

This shows that correcting this error does not materially affect the conclusions that follow from the results presented in “UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 forecasts 2009”. I can also confirm that the error does not materially affect the evidence presented in the Heathrow impact assessment (including that presented for the tests limiting Heathrow runway capacity). Therefore, and as I have already reached a decision over Heathrow, the Department for Transport is not issuing an errata to the Heathrow impact assessment.