Childbirth Mr. Frank Field To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster what estimate the Office for National Statistics has made of the number of births in each of the years from 2008 to 2031 inclusive; and what estimate it has made of the number of those accounted for by net migration. Kevin Brennan The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the Authority to reply. Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated March 2009: As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question regarding what estimate the Office for National Statistics has made of the number of births in each of the years from 2008 to 2031, inclusive; and what estimate it has made of the number of those accounted for by net migration. [267778] The attached table shows the projected number of births in the UK for each year from mid-2008 to mid-2031 according to the 2006-based principal national population projection. A direct estimate of the number of projected births from 2008 to 2031 accounted for by net migration is not available. However, it is possible to compare the results of the principal projection with the 2006-based ‘zero migration’ variant projection. The ‘zero migration’ variant projection assumes that net migration will be zero at all ages throughout the projection period but makes the same assumptions about future fertility and mortality as the principal projection. On this basis, the table also shows the estimated number of projected births attributable to assumed net migration from mid-2006 onwards. There are limitations to this as a direct estimate of the impact of net migration on the number of births over the period 2008-2031. These limitations are that the comparison will: exclude births to migrants who arrived in the UK prior to mid-2006; but include, in later years, births to UK-born women who are children of migrants who arrived in the UK after mid-2006. ------------------------------------------- |Thousand | ------------------------------------------- |Year to: |Principal projection: Births|Zero migration variant projection: Births|Difference: Births accounted for by assumed net migration from mid-2006| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2008 |769|756|13| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2009 |781|757|23| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2010 |790|756|34| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2011 |797|753|44| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2012 |799|745|54| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2013 |799|735|64| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2014 |798|726|73| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2015 |799|717|81| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2016 |801|711|90| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2017 |804|706|98| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2018 |805|700|105| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2019 |806|695|111| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2020 |806|689|117| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2021 |804|682|122| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2022 |802|676|125| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2023 |799|670|129| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2024 |796|665|131| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2025 |794|660|133| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2026 |792|657|135| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2027 |790|653|137| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2028 |788|650|139| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2029 |788|647|140| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2030 |788|645|142| ------------------------------------------- |mid-2031 |788|643|145| ------------------------------------------- |Note:Figures may not sum due to rounding.| -------------------------------------------