To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland what progress is being made in the current discussions on the future of the Province.

As I said in my statement to the House on 3 July, although the talks that I announced on 26 March have now been brought to a conclusion, I believe that it is the clear wish of the people of the United Kingdom, and of the people of Northern Ireland in particular, that the process of dialogue should continue. I therefore hope that it will prove possible, in due course, to explore with the Northern Ireland parties and with the Irish Government whether terms for fresh discussions can be established.

Will my right hon. Friend accept the support of the whole House for the tremendous way in which he has taken the talks so far? In the context of Northern Ireland's history, 10 weeks is too short a period for substantive talks; indeed, many would think that, given the background of recent years, 10 weeks is sufficient only to get the administrative and procedural matters out of the way. Will my right hon. Friend try to ensure that in future there is an adequate timetable, spanning a considerable length of time, so that we can at long last defeat the evil terrorist, who would try to run Ireland to the detriment of its people and the people of the United Kingdom?

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his opening remarks. Anyone who is involved in the affairs of Northern Ireland, and those of the island of Ireland, will be aware that the passage of 10 weeks, in the context of 400 years, is but a hiccup. I shall certainly bear in mind what my hon. Friend has said about a timetable, but that is very much a matter for other participants in the talks. It would be wholly premature for me to predict their reactions at this stage.

Does the Secretary of State realise that, in this week alone, he has had to answer questions in the House about the location of a street light at Gransha presbyterian church and about when he intends to arrange for a pothole to be filled at Cairnshill in Castlereagh? Have we not reached the stage when the Secretary of State should look back at previous Conservative policy and, at least, begin to restore real local government powers to Northern Ireland? I believe that, talks or no talks, there is some scope to give local government control back to the people of Northern Ireland. Surely the right hon. Gentleman agrees with that.

The right hon. Gentleman mentioned subjects that have been drawn to my attention during the past few days. I recognise the force of what he says. However, the framework within which these matters would be looked at would be the one in which all the political parties in Northern Ireland have been involved during the past 18 months. I recognise the relevance of what the right hon. Gentleman says and I shall certainly bear it in mind as and when we look at these matters again in the reasonably near future.

Does the Secretary of State agree that a new talks process is more than simply a gap between conference meetings? Will he assure the House that he will not become susceptible to arguments being advanced in some quarters that he should attempt to impose a solution as a result of the breakdown of the talks process?

I hope that the hon. Gentleman knows me well enough, as a result of the events of the past 18 months, to realise the importance that I attach to any arrangements that we might make in Northern Ireland being capable of commanding widespread support. The basis of the past 20 years does not lead one to suppose automatically that a proposal by Her Majesty's Government would necessarily enjoy such support.

Can the Secretary of State enlighten the House about his use of the word "fresh"? Does he mean new or a continuation of the old? As all the parties to the talks expressed their sadness that they had to be discontinued and a willingness to talk in future, can he say when he expects to initiate his new round of bilateral talks?

In response to the hon. Gentleman's question about the word "fresh", I should remind the House that the talks that we concluded on 3 July, arising from my statement on 26 March, were concluded on the basis of the ground rules that were established in the statement of 26 March. Therefore, any new talks would be new talks, in the sense that we would establish fresh ground rules for them. However, the hon. Gentleman knows that I am sufficiently conservative to pay some attention to the past in looking forward to the future. As for the hon. Gentleman's question about initiation, he will recall that on 3 July I said to the House that I would be listening for noises in the undergrowth.

In view of the answer that the Secretary of State gave to the first question, is he aware of the statement made by the leader of the Democratic Unionist party, the hon. Member for Antrim, North (Rev. Ian Paisley)? As the Unionist parties have adopted a joint approach, it must be taken to be the approach of both parties that the talks process is now dead and that there is no point in pretending that it can survive. Does the Secretary of State agree that the people of Northern Ireland require the optimism and the hope that the talks will be revived? After the marching season, which we enter at midnight tonight, and the holiday period will he use his best offices to convince the Unionist parties that the future of Northern Ireland and its people will be best served by a revival of the talks, not from the start but based on the very useful exchanges that have already taken place? Could that not be a starting point in the autumn?

The hon. Gentleman is probably referring to the second question that I was asked. I was aware that the hon. Member for Antrim, North (Rev. Ian Paisley) had made a statement not only on 3 July but more recently. As always with pronouncements by the hon. Member for Antrim, North, I read it with great care and I think that I detected what it was saying to me. As to the precise verb that we use to describe what the new talks may be, provided that I do not use the word "resume" I think that the House and, conceivably, the hon. Member for Antrim, North, would allow me to use other verbs.

Since yet another initiative has suffered at least a temporary reverse, does not my right hon. Friend agree that the Order in Council procedure, adopted as a temporary measure in 1972, ought to be abandoned so that, at the very least, important Northern Ireland legislation is properly discussed in detail and can be amendable? Is it not the case that Northern Ireland is at present a constitutional slum?

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his use of the words "temporary reverse". The changes in the legislative proceedings of the House were the subject of observations by all parties during the talks—I do not think that I am infringing confidentiality when I say that. Therefore, I am confident that it is a subject to which we shall return. I am not in the habit of describing Northern Ireland as a slum under any conditions.

To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement on the security situation.

To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement on the security situation in Northern Ireland.

Since I answered a similar question on 13 June, four people have been killed as a result of the security situation, two of whom were civilians, one a member of the Ulster Defence Regiment and one a regular soldier. Tragic though that is, were it not for the vigilance of the security forces the figure might well have been much higher.

Can the Secretary of State say when he may be able to make a statement about a retrial of the Ulster Defence Regiment Four? Does he share my concern about the virtual dismissal of the three members of the Police Authority and a related resignation? Does he agree that it is essential that the remaining appointments should be used to restore the political balance in the Police Authority so that it retains credibility?

I hope soon to be able to determine whether there should be a reference to the Court of Appeal in the case of the UDR Four. I think that in his second question, the right hon. Gentleman was asking me to regret something. I made those appointments myself and, therefore, I stand by them.

Will the right hon. Gentleman hold an inquiry into security around the Glenanne UDR base? Will he discover why three sides of that base were protected while a fourth side, from where the bomb came, was totally unprotected, although it has a boundary with a dangerous IRA ghetto area? Will he assure the people of Glenanne that that base will be rebuilt, because if it is not, there will be an exodus of the people living in that area? Can he give the House that assurance today? Will he also consider speaking to the Prime Minister and having conveyed to Her Majesty the Queen the great pride and honour that was done to Ulster with the presentation of the well-deserved colours to the Ulster Defence Regiment and the magnificent speech that Her Majesty gave on that occasion?

I have some familiarity with the issue involved in the hon. Gentleman's first question and with the inquiries that have already been made about the protection of the base. The question of rebuilding is more a matter for my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Defence, but I understand the question. I share with the hon. Gentleman the pride of the Province that Her Majesty the Queen should have visited Northern Ireland, in part, to present the colours of the four battalions of the UDR. I think that they well warranted the honour that Her Majesty bestowed upon them.

Will the Secretary of State accept that many of us will be more than disappointed at his response to the question of my right hon. Friend the Member for Lagan Valley (Mr. Molyneaux) about appointments to the Police Authority? I noted how he paid tribute to the people who serve in the security forces. Is it not then rather strange that two ex-members of the security forces, one of whom suffered horrific injuries at the hands of the IRA but has continued to give unstinting public service down the years, are among the three people who have been summarily dismissed by the Secretary of State, although they acted as chairman and vice-chairman respectively of committees of the Police Authority? Is that the way that men of experience and positive opinion are to be treated in the Police Authority?

I entirely take the hon. Gentleman's point and I am happy to respond to a further question on the same subject. I have paid tribute to the members of the Police Authority who served on it until the end of June. I should say, so that the House is not misled, that no one has been summarily dismissed. A new authority needed to be appointed and invitations were issued for people to serve on it. I take the hon. Gentleman's point about the service that the Police Authority renders, and it is important that it continues to do so on behalf of the community.

Does not the Secretary of State understand the great fear in the Northern Ireland community in the light of the Chief Constable's report and warning of a great increase in violence in the coming months? The Chief Constable has promised the people of Northern Ireland that the Army and the security forces will contain that threat. After 22 long years of violence and slaughter by the IRA in Northern Ireland, would not the Secretary of State expect the people of Northern Ireland to demand that the IRA is defeated rather than contained?

The hon. Gentleman's reference to the Chief Constable's report is apposite. The Chief Constable said that this was as dangerous a time as the Province had faced in recent months. The statement that he made on behalf of the security forces was that, however dangerous the threat, it would be resisted by the security forces. The hon. Gentleman knows well the Government's views on ensuring that terrorism is defeated.

Does not the Chief Constable want more men to enable the Royal Ulster Constabulary to do its job more effectively? Will my right hon. Friend permit an increase in its establishment?

My hon. Friend raises a subject which has been raised before in the House. In the first instance, the Chief Constable made to the Police Authority a submission, which in due course will come to me. The Chief Constable has requested more men, but over a significant period. I am considering that request with all the seriousness that it demands.

On the composition of the Police Authority, does the Secretary of State agree that it is essential that it has the support of all sections of the community? In so far as appointments have been made by the Secretary of State and previous Secretaries of State, they have sought to achieve that end. One regrets only that sometimes people who have been invited to send representatives have failed to do so.

I endorse what the hon. Gentleman said about the need for the Police Authority to be representative of the community and to enjoy its respect and support. The Chief Constable has requested further policemen, which will require considerable increased funding, and he has explained why he needs them. That consideration will weigh in our determination of the decision.

To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he has any plans to introduce the employment action programme into Northern Ireland; and if he will make a statement.

No. The action for community employment, ACE, programme in Northern Ireland already provides work experience on local projects similar to the proposed employment action programmes.

Will the Under-Secretary of State confirm that the action for community employment programme already provides 9,500 jobs for long-term unemployed people on local schemes? Does not that say a lot for the schemes there, compared with the arrangements here, in that they are far better than those in the rest of the United Kingdom? What would happen if Labour's minimum wage policy were introduced? What would be the effect on the programme?

The undoubted effect on the programme if Labour introduced a minimum wage would, unfortunately, be that many people who are currently employed would end up on the ACE programme. My hon. Friend is right—there are 9,600 on the ACE programme in Northern Ireland. Because of our level of long-term unemployment, that is much higher than any of us would wish. Nevertheless, when business is struggling in a very difficult market and when the multi-fibre arrangement is likely to be scrapped in the next few years, the imposition of a minimum wage in Northern Ireland could have devastating consequences in many parts of the Province. I hope that that day will never come.

Two months ago, when the Minister was speaking about the unemployment figures in Northern Ireland, he said:

"I am convinced that the Northern Ireland economy remains robust and is weathering this difficult period much better than other regions within the UK."

The figures show that the Northern Ireland economy is still robust and is weathering the recession better than any other region of the United Kingdom. Unemployment in the north of Ireland has risen by about 2 per cent. in the past year compared with an average of 40 per cent. in the rest of the country. I agree with the hon. Gentleman that it would be right and prudent for the Government to ensure that if unemployment continues to grow—albeit at a fairly low rate—there are programmes in place to ensure that people who lose their jobs are properly catered for. We are also considering a major increase in the job training programme this year. In the light of announcements about a package over here, I have asked my officials to put together a package for Northern Ireland to deal with those who are unfortunately losing their jobs.

To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make grants available to sporting bodies in the Province to make up their costs incurred as a result of the raising of VAT; and if he will make a statement.

No, Sir. However, where assistance has been offered towards capital schemes to be undertaken by such bodies, grant will be based on the full approved costs, including value added tax at the current rate.

Is my hon. Friend aware that the increase in VAT from 15 to 17.5 per cent. is costing the British Horse Society £52,000 a year in revenue, which comes entirely from members' subscriptions, and that a large part of it comes from Northern Ireland where the society does much excellent work for all sections of the community including disabled people? Will he consider the possibility of the cash being made up from money given to sporting bodies? Should not something be done to recoup the money which is entirely the result of voluntary giving?

I know of my hon. Friend's interest in the British Horse Society and of the importance of the work that it undertakes, not least in Northern Ireland. The Department of Education does not make grants available to the British Horse Society, but I hope that my hon. Friend will be encouraged to learn that the Sports Council for Northern Ireland paid £26,717 to the Northern Ireland branch of the British Horse Society in the past financial year.

In view of the high standards achieved by many Northern Ireland men and women who have been encouraged by good coaching and by having taken part in international events such as those held at the Mary Peters and Antrim tracks, does the Minister agree that both the establishment and the location of a centre of excellence should be decided upon as soon as possible, so that all Northern Ireland sports men and women are given the opportunity to excel at their sport?

I agree with the hon. Gentleman that the facilities at the Mary Peters and Antrim tracks and visits to Northern Ireland by international athletes making use of those facilities have not only stimulated interest in athletics in the Province but have improved performance. I believe that I am right in saying that the Sports Council for Northern Ireland is considering a fairly comprehensive plan, part of which is devoted to excellence in the provision for various sports. I shall certainly draw the hon. Gentleman's comments to the attention of the chairman of the Sports Council.

To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement on his monitoring of community relations in Northern Ireland.

In recent years, the Government have introduced a wide range of programmes designed to improve community relations in Northern Ireland. The fundamental purpose of those programmes is to tackle the historic divisions that exist within society in Northern Ireland and to create conditions where all sections of the community enjoy equality of opportunity and equity of treatment. Each of the programmes is monitored on a regular basis to determine whether they are achieving the desired impact.

Given the crucial importance of good community relations in Northern Ireland, will my hon. Friend ensure that there is rigorous monitoring machinery in place to ensure that resources are adequately and efficiently used and go to all parts of the community?

I certainly agree with my hon. Friend, and that is why all individual grants made under the community relations programme are subject to explicit objectives and targets and are monitored against agreed performance indicators. I hope that my hon. Friend will be encouraged to hear that, in the next few weeks, we shall be inviting the private sector to tender for an evaluation exercise in respect of a major programme to support community relations work within the district councils.

I pay tribute to the work that the Minister has done on community relations, and it is valuable work but does he agree with me that we must not fall into the trap of thinking that community relations programmes can solve the problems in Northern Ireland? Underlying the division in the community is a conflict over the nation to which the territory of Northern Ireland should belong and a territorial claim pursued by means of terrorist violence. Does the Minister agree that the best thing that could be done to improve community relations is to defeat terrorism?

I thank the hon. Gentleman for his kind and generous personal remarks, and I certainly agree with him that there is no sense in which success in community relations terms alone will resolve the fundamental and deep-seated problems that affect the community in Northern Ireland. There is also no doubt that the winning of the battle against terrorism will play a significant role in easing community tensions. However, I know from the hon. Gentleman's previous contributions that he agrees with me that there is, none the less, an important role for a community relations programme, and the programme is commanding greater and wider support in the Province with every passing year.

Is the Minister aware that there are many cross-community peace initiatives in Northern Ireland? The latest of them is the peace train which previously ran between Belfast and Dublin but which, on 18 July, is to run not only from Belfast to Dublin but from Holyhead to Euston, to demonstrate the opposition to the IRA's attempts to disrupt rail services in Ireland and in this country. The initiative is supported by many hon. Members and by 15 political parties in Northern Ireland, Ireland and Britain.

Yes, I am aware of the variety of programmes involved in seeking to promote peace in Northern Ireland of which, as the hon. Gentleman says, the peace train is one. I hope that he will be encouraged to learn that earlier this week I visited the peace house in Belfast to see the peace people and I announced a grant of more than £61,000 for their work at their headquarters in Belfast and at their farm in Coleraine.

Is the Minister aware that we very much support his efforts and all that he is doing in respect of community relations in Northern Ireland? To that extent, has he considered renewing the grant that was taken from the Glor Na nGael organisation some months ago with a view to fostering further good community relations in Northern Ireland?

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for his kind words. I must say that they stand in sharp contrast to what he said about the education reform order last night, part of which was designed to require young people to be involved in education for mutual understanding; cultural heritage; a common history curriculum and a common core religious education curriculum. All that arises from the education reform order which the hon. Gentleman so despises and they are designed to promote the cross-community benefits which, at another time at the Dispatch Box, the hon. Gentleman supports.

To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement on the proposal to introduce the 35 ml measure for alcoholic drinks.

The Department issued a consultation paper in December 1990. Thirteen replies were received. After considering these replies, I have decided to permit a 35 ml measure and multiples of it in addition to a 25 ml measure for the serving of spirits.

My hon. Friend is one of the longest serving Ministers in the Northern Ireland Office and, it so happens, one of the most popular. He will now be even more popular. When people in pubs in the Province and, no doubt, at the famous Bushmills distillery, drink his health I am pleased to note that they will be able to choose whether to do that in 25 ml measures or 35 ml measures. He is to be congratulated on his decision and I am pleased to see that the results of his consultation process led to the right decisions being made.

I thank my hon. Friend. His representations helped us to reach this decision and I look forward to drinking his health as he drinks mine.

To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland how many hospitals in the Province kidney dialysis treatment.

The renal unit at the Belfast city hospital, which I was pleased to visit recently, provides kidney dialysis treatment for the whole of the Province and is supported by a satellite dialysis unit at Tyrone county hospital in Omagh.

Bearing in mind that there are 110 kidney patients in the Province receiving haemodialysis treatment, most of them at the renal unit at the Belfast city hospital and many of whom have to travel a considerable distance to get there, what discussions has my hon. Friend had with local nephrologists about creating another satellite unit either at Craigavon to serve the population in the south or at north Antrim for the people in the north?

My hon. Friend will be pleased to know that I have been able to allocate an additional £300,000 this year to add to the extra £360,000 made available last year for further developments in renal services. That has already enabled an additional 19 hospital dialysis places and 10 peritoneal dialysis places. I am also pleased to announce that erythopoietin—EPO—is available for 48 patients. My hon. Friend asked for extra satellite dialysis units. With the funds that I have just announced, I am sure that discussions will bring forward the possibility of extra statellite systems and as soon as representations have been made, I will consider them very carefully indeed.

I welcome the positive note that the Minister has struck in encouraging further satellite units. Does he accept that, as well as renal dialysis, one of the drawbacks is the lack of kidney transplants?

I thoroughly agree with the hon. Gentleman. Despite the increase in the number of patients receiving dialysis from 160 to 175, progress is still low in terms of transplant operations. We achieved about 50 last year. The reason that we cannot further increase that figure is the shortage of organs. I encourage all hon. Members and the citizens of Northern Ireland to carry a donor card.

Can my hon. Friend confirm that all new Northern Ireland driving licences now include a kidney donor statement? Will he try to ensure that the media have a chance to interview both the families of those who have donated organs and of those who have received them so that people can be made aware of the enormous life-saving benefits of successful transplants?

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. I am pleased to credit him with much of the progress that has been achieved by including a kidney donor statement on driving licences in Northern Ireland. That was an excellent move. He has also outlined the excellent idea of showing the benefits of transplants. Transplants can bring some good our of misery by giving new life to a person who desperately needs it.

To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland whether he has received any requests for grant for the construction of a chemical plant in Northern Ireland.

I have not received any such request within the last two financial years.

Does that mean that the Minister does not know whether any further chemical plants will be coming to Northern Ireland? Given that the existing chemical plants hope to reduce the amount of toxic waste that they incinerate before the end of the century, where on earth does the Minister expect sufficient waste requiring incineration to arise that will require an incinerator on the island of Ireland and how does he expect the incinerator planned for the Maydown site to be economically viable if toxic waste decreases by 70 per cent?

As I have said to the hon. Gentleman, the question of the amount of waste on the island of Ireland and whether we should have an incinerator will be discussed if and when an application for such an incinerator is made. We cannot tell others that we should always be able to export our waste to them if, at the same time, we are not prepared to receive imports from others.

To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement on the current level of unemployment in the Province.

At 9 May 1991, the latest date for which figures are available, there were 97,951 unemployed claimants in the Province, which represents a decrease of 1,059 compared with the previous month.

Is not it scandalous that, under the Tory Government's economic policies, 100,000 people are unemployed in Northern Ireland? Will the Minister accept that when the Government came into office, as a result of sneering at the Labour Government's policies, the level of unemployment was far and away lower than the current level, as has been the case for the past 10 years? Will the incompetence of the Government and the Department of the Environment, who failed to warn local authorities about the fraud at the Bank of Credit and Commerce International, have any repercussions on jobs? The collapse of that bank will certainly not create jobs; it is much more likely to cause unemployment.

The hon. Gentleman asked my hon. Friend the Member for Peterborough (Dr. Mawhinney) that question yesterday and he heard the reply. I replied to the same question during last night's debate, although the hon. Gentleman was not in his place to hear it, and I have nothing further to add. In answer to the first part of the hon. Gentleman's question, perhaps he will reflect on the fact that, when we came to power in 1979, unemployment in Northern Ireland was running at more than twice the average for Great Britain, but it is now only 1.8 times the average. The Government have, therefore, been increasingly successful in Northern Ireland, not only in producing new jobs, but in bringing down its unemployment ratio compared with the rest of the country.

After the ranting that we have just heard from the hon. Member for Bradford, South (Mr. Cryer), does my hon. Friend agree that the main cause of unemployment in the Province is terrorism and that the people who are principally to blame for job losses are the men of violence who discourage investment?

My hon. Friend is, of course, right. The success of the economy of Northern Ireland which is, as I have remarked, the most successful region of the United Kingdom at the moment, could become an even bigger triumph if we did not have to deal with the scourge and misery of terrorism. The people of Northern Ireland are to be congratulated on the success that they are currently achieving.

To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland when he next expects the Anglo-Irish governmental conference to meet.

The next meeting of the Anglo-Irish intergovernmental conference will take place on Tuesday 16 July.

Does the Secretary of State agree that people such as the hon. Member for Antrim, North (Rev. Ian Paisley) who possibly exult that the Brooke talks are well and truly dead, need to reflect on the irony that the Hillsborough pact is still the framework for Anglo-Irish relations and the key to the role of the Republic in Northern Ireland affairs? If it is to be replaced by something better or to have added to it a balancing relationship between the north and Dublin and between the north and London, talks will have to be resumed, preferably along the lines that the Secretary of State described earlier in replying to a question from the hon. Member for Dover (Mr. Shaw).

My personal experience of the hon. Member for Antrim, North (Rev. Ian Paisley) has always been emotionally low key, so I find the word "exult" surprising in the context. In response to the hon. Gentleman's question about the Anglo-Irish Agreement, I remind him that I have said on previous occasions during discussions about possible future arrangements for the government of Northern Ireland that Her Majesty's Government would give serious consideration to any implication for the agreement of such arrangements. I confirm that in the context of the discussions we will also consider any party's proposal, including an alternative to the agreement, which would enhance the underlying objectives which I believe that we all share.

To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday II July.

This morning I presided at a meeting of the Cabinet and had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. In addition to my duties in the House, I shall be having further meetings later today.

Is the Prime Minister aware that whatever reservations hon. Members may have about the rigour of his counter-inflation policy and its impact on growth, jobs and investment, it would attract more support if the Government had a more even-handed approach to it? How does he explain, for example, the statement last night by the latest power chief to receive a big pay rise—Mr. Weston of MANWEB—that the Government knew that his salary would soar?

As the hon. Gentleman may know, the gentleman concerned has withdrawn that statement and withdrawn it unreservedly. As MANWEB said:

"the higher levels of pay were not agreed until after the offer for sale was announced in November 1990. The Government did not place any restriction on the regional electricity companies in announcing likely figures at any time."

Might I ask my right hon. Friend whether he has had a chance today in his list of engagements to look at the recent announcement by the Labour party that it apparently intends to—

Order. The question must refer to the Government's responsibility. I know that the hon. Gentleman has been away for a while, but his question must refer to the Government's responsibility.

I wonder whether my right hon. Friend will see it as his responsibility today to have an early debate on our nuclear deterrent and the need for us to keep it. Apparently the Opposition's policy has suddenly changed. Rather than an announcement in the media, we should have a full, proper and open debate on the Floor of the House.

First, I welcome my hon. Friend back to the House after his absence. We are very pleased to see him back in his place.

Does the Prime Minister still stick to his prediction that the British economy will recover during the second half of this year?

Apparently the right hon. Gentleman does not want to discuss defence quite so soon. I remain of the opinion that I have expressed before in the House and which has been endorsed by the OECD and the CBI: that we shall begin to move out of recession in the second half of this year.

Has it escaped the Prime Minister's notice that the second half of the year began 11 days ago.

Oh!

Order.

If the right hon. Gentleman's prediction has any veracity why are we still at the bottom of the economic league? Why do we have the worst record of investment, unemployment and growth of all the G7 countries?

The right hon. Gentleman might study the diary a little more closely to find out how long the second half of the year lasts. As usual, he is facing backwards. Five per cent. off the inflation rate and 3.5 per cent. off interest rates are both essential ingredients to get the economy moving again. That has happened and it will continue.

With reference to the diary, I take it that the Prime Minister is now saying that the economy will begin to improve by Christmas. Every time he makes a prediction about improvement, he gets further and further away. I shall therefore ask him a simple question based on his own pathetic analysis of when the economy might begin to improve. First, can we be assured that by Christmas and in the three areas about which I have asked the right hon. Gentleman—investment, unemployment and growth—this country will be doing at least as well as Greece, Portugal and Turkey? May we also be assured —[Interruption.]

Order.

Will the Prime Minister now also answer the question from which he ran away last Tuesday? Since, during the three years of decline, he has been Chief Secretary, Chancellor and Prime Minister, will he accept his own responsibility for those three years of disaster?

On the subject of predictions, with which the right hon. Gentleman began his lengthy third question, he will recall predicting that unemployment would be 4 million in 1987—he is in no position to talk about predictions. As for the position at the end of the year, as a former sacked shadow Chancellor the right hon. Gentleman should know that we will set out our predictions in the autumn statement.

Will my right hon. Friend assure the House that he and his Government will ensure that the military level of our forces will always be sufficient to meet the defence needs of the realm and of our military commitments overseas?

Yes, Sir.

To ask the Prime Minister, when he will next pay an official visit to south London.

I am making plans for a series of visits to all parts of the country and I very much hope to include south London among them.

Given that youth unemployment has risen in the four inner south London boroughs by 53 per cent. in the past year, and that more than one in two crimes in the capital are committed by young people, will the Prime Minister, as a south London boy who became the youngest Prime Minister this century, make a personal commitment to the young people of south London by coming to visit them and the youth service south of the river, to see their desperate state and to make sure that he and the Government commit the personnel, resources, training and jobs to ensure that young people today have the opportunities that he is glad he had?

I share the hon. Gentleman's concern about the opportunities that are necessary for young people in the inner-London area. One of the principal problems for many years was the treatment of education under the regime of the Inner London education authority, which has been continued by the disgraceful attitude that some of the inner London boroughs take to the way in which they deal with education. That dramatically damages the employment prospects of youngsters. Another factor that caused unemployment in inner London was the capacity of Labour councils, under the old system, to put up business rates to such an extent that businesses left inner London.

If my right hon. Friend gets the chance to come to south-east London, he will find himself in the area covered by the Greenwich building society and the Woolwich building society. Will he see whether it is possible, on Monday when clause 52 of the Finance Bill is considered in the House, to have an open debate on the way that that clause adversely affects the Greenwich building society, but not the Woolwich building society, so that Parliament can decide openly what should happen in the future?

Parliament is always in a position to decide openly on the matters before it, and that will undoubtedly be the case when we debate the Finance Bill.

The Prime Minister knows that unemployment has risen in south London, and that he has cut training places there. When will he put more money into training there and give young people real training prospects?

As the hon. Lady knows, quite apart from the general employment prospects and training that have been increased over the years, we have established two city technology colleges in south London. These will dramatically improve the prospects of the pupils in them. Prospects would be improved even more were other schools in inner London to adopt the same disciplines and to offer the same certainty of good education that CTCs offer.

To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 11 July.

I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

My right hon. Friend will know that the people of south Dorset believe in a strong, credible and clearly stated defence policy. Will he ensure that the policy for defence is both credible and will deter aggression, and that it is well understood? That will be in contrast to the party opposite, which believes in fudged words, so as to avoid the wrath of its Back Benchers.

My hon. Friend is right, and I believe that he speaks for many people who do not trust the Opposition on defence. Yesterday, they produced a defence policy which appeared to protect them rather than the country. People will have noticed that. One cannot defend the country with a couple of sentences tucked away in an article in The Guardian. This country knows the Opposition only too well and it knows their unilateralist tendencies.

Less than a week ago, the Bank of England was giving a clean bill of health to the Bank of Credit and Commerce International. Less than a week ago, the Department of the Environment was issuing that bank's name as one suitable for local authorities to deal with. If officials of these two organisations, sitting in the heart of London, can make such a catastrophic error, does the Prime Minister have any sympathy with the officials of small local authorities in far-flung parts of the country which might have taken the advice of the Bank of England and the Department of the Environment? Will the Government and the Bank of England face up to their responsibilities in this matter?

The Bank of England acted as soon as it had evidence on which to act, and that has been made clear. It would not be right to give preferential treatment to local authorities over other depositors of the BCCI. Any accountant of finance director should know that if an institution pays over the market rate of interest, it is in the form of a risk premium. Local authorities have a duty of care over the funds entrusted to them and that implies taking a prudent view of risk and spreading risk.

To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 11 .July.

I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

Can my right hon. Friend confirm that in the drawing up of the Government's Green Paper on industrial relations, he will take full account of the poll in The Guardian today, which shows clear majorities against a return to secondary action, flying pickets and unofficial strikes—policies which are all supported by the Labour party?

I can certainly give my hon. Friend that assurance. Our trade union legislation has brought unprecedented improvements in industrial relations. Of course, they are unprecedented improvements which are not welcome to the Labour party. As Mr. Ron Todd said earlier this week:

"Tory industrial relations law has got to go. There is no fudging the issue."

Order. Let us hear the end of the Prime Minister's answer.

I know that Labour Members are embarrassed by what their leader said, but they are going to hear it. He said about the TGWU:

"This union is the Labour party in so many ways."