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Migration

Volume 477: debated on Friday 13 June 2008

To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (1) what international (a) immigration, (b) emigration and (c) net migration was for (i) each Government Office region in England, (ii) each local authority area in England, (iii) Wales and (iv) Scotland in each five year period since 1987; and what proportion per 1,000 population these figures represent; (205759)

(2) what net international migration was for those living in the UK and born (a) in the UK and (b) elsewhere in the periods (i) 1987 to 1997 and (ii) 1997 to the most recent year for which figures are available;

(3) how many and what proportion of those immigrating to the UK were employed in manual and clerical occupations prior to arrival in the UK in each year since 1997;

(4) what proportion of the resident population was born abroad in (a) 1987, (b) 1997 and (c) the most recent year for which figures are available; and what forecast has been made of future trends in the proportion of the population born abroad;

(5) what the net change in the number of foreign-born residents in the UK was between (a) 1987 and 1997 and (b) 1997 and the most recent year for which figures are available; and which 10 countries were the most frequent countries of origin of foreign-born UK residents in each such period.

The information requested falls with the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the Authority to reply.

Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated 13 June 2008:

As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your questions on international migration and foreign born residents in the UK. The following questions are all answered by this letter:

What international (a) immigration, (b) emigration and (c) net migration was for (i) each government office region in England, (ii) each local authority area in England, (iii) Wales and (iv) Scotland in each five year period since 1987; and what proportion per 1,000 population these figures represent. (205759)

What net international migration was for those living in the UK and born (a) in the UK and (b) elsewhere in the periods (i) 1987 to 1997 and (ii) 1997 to the most recent year for which figures are available. (205785)

How many and what proportion of those immigrating to the UK were employed in manual and clerical occupations prior to arrival in the UK in each year since 1997. (205786)

What proportion of the resident population was born abroad in (a) 1987, (b) 1997 and (c) the most recent year for which figures are available; and what forecast has been made of future trends in the proportion of the population to have been born abroad. (205790)

What the net change in the number of foreign born residents in the UK was between (a) 1987 and 1997 and (b) 1997 and the most recent year for which figures are available; and which 10 countries were the most frequent countries of origin in each such period. (205791)

Tables Al, A2, and A3 give figures for Parliamentary Question number 205759 between mid-1986 and mid-2006, the latest year for which figures are available based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). The international immigration and emigration data for local authorities are only available from mid-2001 onwards. The footnotes to the tables provide the basis for the figures. (205759)

Table B gives an estimate of net international migration by country of birth (UK and elsewhere) between 1987 and 2006. Data from 1991 to 2006 are based on Total International Migration (TIM) whilst data from 1987 to 1990 are based solely on the IPS, as estimates of TIM are not available prior to 1991. TIM is the measure of long term international migration introduced from 1991 and which is based mainly on data from the IPS supplemented with other data and adjustments for people not counted by the IPS. (205785)

The number and proportion of immigrants to the UK employed in manual and clerical occupations prior to their migration between 1997 and 2006 is shown in Table C, based on TIM. (205786)

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show that 7 per cent of the UK population was born abroad in 1997, and 11 per cent of the UK population was born abroad in 2007, the latest year for which figures are available from the LFS. No comparable estimates are available for 1987 as prior to 1992 the LFS was not conducted throughout the year, and thus it is not possible to provide an average over four quarters for 1987. No projection has been made of future trends in the proportion of the population to have been born abroad. (205790)

Between 1997 and 2007 there was an increase of 2,323,000 UK residents who were born abroad. Table D gives the ten most common countries of birth of foreign born UK residents in 1997 and 2007. No comparable estimates are available for 1987. (205791)

Copies of the tables have been placed in the House of Commons Library.

To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster pursuant to the answer of 19 May 2008, Official Report, column 49W, on migration, what estimate the Office for National Statistics has made of the direct and indirect contribution of net migration to population growth by (a) 2031 and (b) 2056; and what proportion of total population growth each figure represents. (208820)

[holding answer 5 June 2008]: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.

Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated 13 June 2008:

As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question regarding what estimate has been made of the direct and indirect contribution of net migration to population growth by (a) 2031 and (b) 2056; and what proportion of total population growth each figure represents. (208820)

Net migration affects population growth both through the immediate direct impact of migrants themselves and the indirect impact through future births and deaths of migrants.

As part of the latest (2006-based) national population projections from ONS, a full analysis has been made of the impact of the assumed level of net migration on population growth in the period to 2031. This is available at

http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Population/2006/methodology/mignote.asp.

The following table summarises the results and shows corresponding figures for the period to 2056.

Projected population growth by component, United Kingdom, 2006-56

Million

Between 2006 and 2031

Between 2006 and 2056

Total population increase

11

18

Resulting from:

Assumed net migration

5

10

Natural change assuming no migration

1

Additional natural change from assumed level of net migration

2

7

As previously advised in my replies to earlier PQs from you (207695 and 177459), the underlying assumptions for the projections are demographic trend based and should not be seen as predictions. Long-term projections should be treated with particular caution. Population projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward.